Ayrianth
10-29-2004, 5:36 PM
A game with a lot riding on it
GREG COTE, gcote@herald.com
Not to alarm you, but the outcome of one particular NFL game Sunday -- an otherwise off-the-marquee encounter between losing teams -- will determine the future of America and influence the entire civilized (not to mention uncivilized) world.
No pressure, Packers and Redskins.
Have fun out there!
Only the course of history and the future of the planet await your final score.
See, the result of Washington's last home game before presidential Election Day has been an accurate predictor of who'll win the White House -- accurate without fail -- since 1936. That covers 17 straight elections across eight decades.
Redskins win: Incumbent president or party keeps the White House.
Redskins lose: Challenger wins.
This Sunday, Green Bay at Washington finds the Packers (and John Kerry) favored over the Skins (and George Bush) by a scant two points.
Scoff if you will, but 17 uninterrupted occurrences of any such either-or proposition defies the suggestion of mere coincidence. The mathematical odds of 17 consecutive coin-flips landing heads every time are 131,072-1.
And yet the Redskins have done it. That, or the entire U.S. electorate has been in quad rennial cahoots during the years in a concerted effort to keep the streak alive.
In any case, there is no predictor as accurate as this one. It sure isn't me with my NFL picks. Somewhere, weather-prognosticating groundhog Punxsutawney Phil is enraged with jealousy.
Democrats? None of your fundraising, advertising or bright ideas is as important to Kerry right now as the turn of Brett Favre's spirals inside FedEx Field on Sunday.
Republicans? Nothing in Bush's track record or incumbency will serve you as well Tuesday as will a big afternoon two days earlier by (not Bill) Clinton Portis.
I'm already imagining inauguration day and picturing a grateful president during the solemnity of the oath of office:
Bush, wearing a plastic hog's snout.
Or Kerry, under a cheesehead hat.
Redskins players have been made aware of the historical quirk, providing Bush backers with added incentive Sunday and requiring Kerry supporters to hope the Massachusetts Democrat can do what the Massachusetts baseball team just did.
"We've got to win this game, no doubt. But I'm hoping John Kerry can kind of reverse the curse," Redskins cornerback Fred Smoot said. "This is the millennium for all trends to be broken."
If only there were reliable trends or historical indicators to guide me in my NFL picks.
Be assured the trick-or-treaters dressed as ghouls and monsters who'll haunt your doorstep Halloween night will not frighten you nearly as much as the NFL schedule frightens me weekly.
Contained therein is an array of mostly indecipherable games, glorified tossups. And the few times apparent safe bets seem to present themselves, upsets arise like goblins. This week, for example, eight games have betting lines of three points or less. And no spread is beyond eight points, meaning teams in all 14 games are judged within one score of each other.
Parity, the systemic evening of talent and teams, is no great reason. Twelve teams have two or fewer losses and 13 others have two or fewer wins. The NFL has more haves and have-nots than a Bush economy. And yet anybody still beats anybody, as last week, when the seven favorites lost.
There is a saying among gamblers that you make money Saturday and lose it Sunday; I can testify. Football prognosticators and bettors alike keep searching for trends and indicators with the track record and reliability of the Redskins' quadrennial effect on the presidential election, but there are none to be found.
I will guarantee one prediction, however, and feel pretty good about it:
I predict that if all 14 NFL games end in a tie Sunday, Ralph Nader wins.
GREG COTE, gcote@herald.com
Not to alarm you, but the outcome of one particular NFL game Sunday -- an otherwise off-the-marquee encounter between losing teams -- will determine the future of America and influence the entire civilized (not to mention uncivilized) world.
No pressure, Packers and Redskins.
Have fun out there!
Only the course of history and the future of the planet await your final score.
See, the result of Washington's last home game before presidential Election Day has been an accurate predictor of who'll win the White House -- accurate without fail -- since 1936. That covers 17 straight elections across eight decades.
Redskins win: Incumbent president or party keeps the White House.
Redskins lose: Challenger wins.
This Sunday, Green Bay at Washington finds the Packers (and John Kerry) favored over the Skins (and George Bush) by a scant two points.
Scoff if you will, but 17 uninterrupted occurrences of any such either-or proposition defies the suggestion of mere coincidence. The mathematical odds of 17 consecutive coin-flips landing heads every time are 131,072-1.
And yet the Redskins have done it. That, or the entire U.S. electorate has been in quad rennial cahoots during the years in a concerted effort to keep the streak alive.
In any case, there is no predictor as accurate as this one. It sure isn't me with my NFL picks. Somewhere, weather-prognosticating groundhog Punxsutawney Phil is enraged with jealousy.
Democrats? None of your fundraising, advertising or bright ideas is as important to Kerry right now as the turn of Brett Favre's spirals inside FedEx Field on Sunday.
Republicans? Nothing in Bush's track record or incumbency will serve you as well Tuesday as will a big afternoon two days earlier by (not Bill) Clinton Portis.
I'm already imagining inauguration day and picturing a grateful president during the solemnity of the oath of office:
Bush, wearing a plastic hog's snout.
Or Kerry, under a cheesehead hat.
Redskins players have been made aware of the historical quirk, providing Bush backers with added incentive Sunday and requiring Kerry supporters to hope the Massachusetts Democrat can do what the Massachusetts baseball team just did.
"We've got to win this game, no doubt. But I'm hoping John Kerry can kind of reverse the curse," Redskins cornerback Fred Smoot said. "This is the millennium for all trends to be broken."
If only there were reliable trends or historical indicators to guide me in my NFL picks.
Be assured the trick-or-treaters dressed as ghouls and monsters who'll haunt your doorstep Halloween night will not frighten you nearly as much as the NFL schedule frightens me weekly.
Contained therein is an array of mostly indecipherable games, glorified tossups. And the few times apparent safe bets seem to present themselves, upsets arise like goblins. This week, for example, eight games have betting lines of three points or less. And no spread is beyond eight points, meaning teams in all 14 games are judged within one score of each other.
Parity, the systemic evening of talent and teams, is no great reason. Twelve teams have two or fewer losses and 13 others have two or fewer wins. The NFL has more haves and have-nots than a Bush economy. And yet anybody still beats anybody, as last week, when the seven favorites lost.
There is a saying among gamblers that you make money Saturday and lose it Sunday; I can testify. Football prognosticators and bettors alike keep searching for trends and indicators with the track record and reliability of the Redskins' quadrennial effect on the presidential election, but there are none to be found.
I will guarantee one prediction, however, and feel pretty good about it:
I predict that if all 14 NFL games end in a tie Sunday, Ralph Nader wins.