Mafia who done it! The Play

Wow Mad you make a post I pretty much agree with on LC and I start to think I better watch him more closely. I start to wonder if my feeling about you is wrong.

Then you ruin it. Not by going after HN but by leaving out the 2nd part of my post in which I pretty much said I don't believe HN is mafia because he would have let me die instead of taking a chance that I'd survive. If HN is mafia I'm a much bigger threat then Emo was to him.

Always the possibility that some will change their minds about me and say they are leaning me innocent just so when they hit me tonight they can say well I had a feeling he was innocent. Anyone seeing that yet?

Here's the thing though, Ice, and alot of this is from memory, so if I have anything wrong please correct me.

Until BKW pointed out the possible connection between HN and Andi, I really hadn't thought about this. Very, very late, HN threw a singleton vote onto RB. After Emo's comment he did move to Emo with you and LChap, though.

The interesting thing is that after nightfall (but before JMax ran night) you posted that an innocent had just been lynched, etc... I seem to recall HN and BKW talking and HN saying that if Ice was innocent, BKW might be his vote the next day, or something like that. HN seemed to believe in your innocence, which is fine. Did you notice, though, that it took Emo for him to vote to save you? He sure didn't hop on Andi with you.
 
Yeah I wouldn't expect you too. You'd have to be paying attention.


I am paying attention, Ice. Just don't think your thoughts are worthy of much.
 
Here's the thing though, Ice, and alot of this is from memory, so if I have anything wrong please correct me.

Until BKW pointed out the possible connection between HN and Andi, I really hadn't thought about this. Very, very late, HN threw a singleton vote onto RB. After Emo's comment he did move to Emo with you and LChap, though.

The interesting thing is that after nightfall (but before JMax ran night) you posted that an innocent had just been lynched, etc... I seem to recall HN and BKW talking and HN saying that if Ice was innocent, BKW might be his vote the next day, or something like that. HN seemed to believe in your innocence, which is fine. Did you notice, though, that it took Emo for him to vote to save you? He sure didn't hop on Andi with you.


Interesting thought that I didn't pay attention to. I'll have to see what his response is to your statement.

I am paying attention, Ice. Just don't think your thoughts are worthy of much.


Great don't want you too. What I would like is for some thoughts on other players. There are 4 mafia,so if you think I am mafia then who are the other 3?
 
I was never going 'so hard' at Jpappy early. His first post seemed kind of scummy and I pointed it out...that was it. Jpap came back onto the thread and that was that.

Here's the kind of interesting thing about Jpappy being doc, though... I didn't really pick up on his clue of 'saving' until you said a couple of things. Cory Lover accused you of protecting Jpap, and you said that you had reasons for doing so. That's when I asked you what reasons and you chose not to answer... So I started to think, 'Why the heck would HN have reasons for claiming to be protecting Jpap?' I thought about the 'saving' hint, and it hit me... uh oh, JPap's claiming to be the doc (really foolish move to role claim so early, btw).

So I then thought a little harder and wondered why the heck you would claim to have reason to protect JPap. When CL accused you of protecting Jpap why didn't you say that you weren't protecting him? By saying you had reason to protect him, you further telegraphed his slip up. It would make more sense for an innocent to deny protecting anyone, it might bring heat your way (although I never saw you protect JP) but at least you wouldn't be helping to point out the doc.

I may have tried to play it more subtle if I had it to do over, but at that point several people had mentioned it and Cory wouldn't let it go. I wasn't sure jpappy was telling the truth, but didn't want to risk calling him out on it. If I'd refused to answer or ignored the questions, I'm sure you would have used that as an excuse to call me scum. I'm thinking you'll find a reason no matter what, but I'm afraid you have to convince bkw to hit me. I'm not gonna shush because the almighty Mad questions me.
 
bkw- How did I make Ice & CL look guilty exactly? They actually are the closest in my mind to innocent right now. Ice, because I think his posts have been different from past games when I've always tended to suspect him (again, if he's playing me he's doing better than ever). Cory, I think is innocent because if he would have really looked at jpappy's post, he should've seen the implications. That's why I went after him and tried to play that post down. Those that didn't weigh in at all on the shading post are shady to me (pun intended) because I think the mafia were probably discussing it behind closed doors and wouldn't want to let on that they caught it. My vote on Emo was because I read his post as an admission. Period. I read it wrong and am sorry, but other than the numbers thing, I'm ok with not having to read his posts anymore. Trust me, if I was mafia and had to choose between Emo and Ice as innocents... Ice would be gone right now. Thanks for the vote though. I was feeling kind of left out. Any other suspects or actual thoughts that might help us out?

HN, I agree with a lot of what you said, but I'm not sure I buy the part in blue. Obviously, some of the mafia caught it because they nailed him last night. Commenting on it wouldn't have made much of a difference. I don't think I'm saying this correctly... it just doesn't jive with me. It's not that big a deal, maybe a chink in hooked's armor?

Here’s a few thoughts on some of those still in the game. For those not listed, I’m not necessarily saying that I have them leaning innocent, I just haven’t seen anything really scummy yet.

Ice – while we don’t know his status fully, I’m leaning him innocent right now. The fact that he was willing to sit on Andi (known mafia) makes me think he might be innocent. Had he stayed on Andi until the end, I would have felt a little more sure, though.

I pretty much agree with this. I don't think he's off the hook, but there seem to be other's to target today.

LChap – I strongly believe that he’s scum. Alot of general observations (scenarios, post counts, etc.) on Day 1, without really pointing out anything useful. Late in the day pulls out his cutlass and mounts a heroic swashbuckling effort to save Ice. The thing that bugs me here though is that when he made his intentions to save Ice known, he then put his vote on Emo (known innocent) instead of Andi (known mafia). Keep in mind that Ice was parked on Andi at the time, so to me, it would have made more sense for LChap to stand shoulder to shoulder with Ice as opposed to trying to pull Ice off of Andi. He didn't move onto Andi until I wondered (in the thread) if there was a reason that he didn't hop onto Andi with Ice.

I really don't know what to do with LChap. Half the time he seems innocent, half the time he seems mafia. If there's a big pile on him, I would probably join in, but I think I'll rattle some bushes first.

Beth – a lot of general observations on Day 1 without pointing out anything useful. Committed what I consider to be a major blunder with regard to claiming which posts may have influenced her vote. I think she’s probably scum.

agreed

Ogre – not a strong feeling here, but I don’t necessarily follow the thought process regarding his vote for Ice. I understand the logic, but the process as to how he eventually brought himself to vote for Ice is of interest…

In post #77 Ogre expresses concern that the quiet mafia players are getting the more vocal townie posters to cut each other’s throats. He goes on to vote RB (a pretty quiet poster at the time). When RB posts a little, Ogre removes his vote and the next day votes for Ice (a more vocal poster). Kind of a complete 180 from his earlier position.

Yes, I'm still expressing concern that quiet people are slipping by. That's a huge concern every game. How many times do we all go after a heavy poster because of something they said and how many times have we been right. All a mafia has to do is sit back and wait for a heavy poster to slip up (Emo anyone?) and then jump on them with both feet.

At the time, I felt there was a concerted effort to safe Ice. I still think that way more and more. He's a prime suspect for me.

Chas – what the heck is up there? Charlie has to know that his play style this game is not helping the town at all. As I think that Charlie is generally more conscientious when a townie, I think that he’s quite possibly scum.

He's my current suspect. Charlie is better than this as a townie. He almost always got nailed because of his aggressive approach. So, this new, quiet charlie just may be mafia.

BKW - late jump onto Ice is worth noting, not sure that it makes him scum, though. One to watch.

If Emo was mafia, then I would have said that bkw AND Ice were mafia. Now, I just don't know.

Wow Mad you make a post I pretty much agree with on LC and I start to think I better watch him more closely. I start to wonder if my feeling about you is wrong.

Then you ruin it. Not by going after HN but by leaving out the 2nd part of my post in which I pretty much said I don't believe HN is mafia because he would have let me die instead of taking a chance that I'd survive. If HN is mafia I'm a much bigger threat then Emo was to him.

Always the possibility that some will change their minds about me and say they are leaning me innocent just so when they hit me tonight they can say well I had a feeling he was innocent. Anyone seeing that yet?

Now Ice is protecting Hooked. I agree with the logic here... though it makes it seem like both Hooked and Ice are mafia.

If HN votes Ice and Ice is innocent, then Hooked is target number one, next time around.

If HN doesn't vote Ice and Ice is mafia, then Hooked looks mafia.

If HN votes Ice and Ice is mafia, then Hooked looks innocent.

If HN doesn't vote Ice and Ice is innocent, then it's really nothing.

So hooked doesn't vote for Ice... even though if both are mafia, it make Hooked look bad. So, I don't think both are mafia. Of the two, I think it makes more sense for Ice to be mafia. Unless they're both innocent and it another duel innocent pissing match.

For the present (and to shake the trees a bit) I vote to lynch charlie.

Let's see what happens.
 
Here's the thing though, Ice, and alot of this is from memory, so if I have anything wrong please correct me.

Until BKW pointed out the possible connection between HN and Andi, I really hadn't thought about this. Very, very late, HN threw a singleton vote onto RB. After Emo's comment he did move to Emo with you and LChap, though.

The interesting thing is that after nightfall (but before JMax ran night) you posted that an innocent had just been lynched, etc... I seem to recall HN and BKW talking and HN saying that if Ice was innocent, BKW might be his vote the next day, or something like that. HN seemed to believe in your innocence, which is fine. Did you notice, though, that it took Emo for him to vote to save you? He sure didn't hop on Andi with you.

Interesting thought that I didn't pay attention to. I'll have to see what his response is to your statement.




Great don't want you too. What I would like is for some thoughts on other players. There are 4 mafia,so if you think I am mafia then who are the other 3?


If you were paying attention to the thread at the time, you'd have seen that someone pointed out the fact that Andi hadn't voted. I did suspect her, look at my posts, but why waste a vote on an inevitible UD? When was the last game that someone didn't on night 1. Like I've said (at least twice), I thought Emo slipped. Yea, I chose the "easy route", but I did because of his post. At least I was paying attention. I'm still not sure I buy your reasons for staying on the sidelines Mad. Even if it wasn't a vote, you never spoke out.
 
I may have tried to play it more subtle if I had it to do over, but at that point several people had mentioned it and Cory wouldn't let it go. I wasn't sure jpappy was telling the truth, but didn't want to risk calling him out on it. If I'd refused to answer or ignored the questions, I'm sure you would have used that as an excuse to call me scum. I'm thinking you'll find a reason no matter what, but I'm afraid you have to convince bkw to hit me. I'm not gonna shush because the almighty Mad questions me.

With regard to possibly looking scummy by not answering the question, 'so what?' You would possibly be protecting the doctor. If you were just an innocent, you'd have to realize that the doctor is more important to the town than yourself, right?

The fact that you're starting to wig out really makes me wonder...
 
HN, I agree with a lot of what you said, but I'm not sure I buy the part in blue. Obviously, some of the mafia caught it because they nailed him last night. Commenting on it wouldn't have made much of a difference. I don't think I'm saying this correctly... it just doesn't jive with me. It's not that big a deal, maybe a chink in hooked's armor?





Now Ice is protecting Hooked. I agree with the logic here... though it makes it seem like both Hooked and Ice are mafia.

If HN votes Ice and Ice is innocent, then Hooked is target number one, next time around.

If HN doesn't vote Ice and Ice is mafia, then Hooked looks mafia.

If HN votes Ice and Ice is mafia, then Hooked looks innocent.

If HN doesn't vote Ice and Ice is innocent, then it's really nothing.

So hooked doesn't vote for Ice... even though if both are mafia, it make Hooked look bad. So, I don't think both are mafia. Of the two, I think it makes more sense for Ice to be mafia. Unless they're both innocent and it another duel innocent pissing match.

For the present (and to shake the trees a bit) I vote to lynch charlie.

Let's see what happens.

Ogre, speaking of those low posters slipping by... Please show me the pissing match between Ice and I. I happen to (god help me) think Ice is on our side this game. I don't mind questions or even accusations, but there are gaps in your reasoning. What if Ice votes for me and I'm innocent or mafia? I happen to believe that someone's (Mad / bkw) are trying to goad me and Ice into a fight. It's happened in the past and hurt the town. If the folks think I'm guilty, they can lynch me. Otherwise I'm gonna keep waving the BS flag until I'm hit.
 
Hooked, bkw and Beth....maybe.....
 
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