Thinking out loud here. Bear with me.
RB (2) -Ice(450) Ogre(451) Ice(485)
LC (0) -Mad(498)
Mad (1) - LC(486)
HN (2) -Bkw(461) Beth(520)
Ice (3) -RB(503) HN (522) Mad(523)
OK, if Ice is innocent, then there are two innocents on rb (assuming I'm there to). With that in mind, then where are the other two innocents? And more importantly, where are the four mafia?
If Ice is innocent, then more than likely there are at least two mafia on him... if not three. That means rb, mad, and hooked are mafia... or at least two are.
Now, I really think that the mafia have split up so that if the innocents are split, then they can control the voting. We'll see a sudden surge of vote changes near the end. Whoever does that, then we can nail them... if the innocents can all get together at the end of the day.
So, say two mafia on Ice and that leaves two mafia out of either bkw, LC, and beth. I was pretty concerned about beth, but then, she says that she'll switch to rb. If that's the case, then I'm not worried. If all the innocents go to rb, then we'll have at worst a tie going into nightfall.
bkw seems more of a hit & run voter, so I'm not so sure if his vote is mafia or innocent. At this point it seems pretty useless, so hopefully it will change. Same for LC (except the hit & run part).
OK, so I move back on rb and beth moves to rb. That makes it 3-3 rb and ice with the ENTIRE CONTROL of the night falling to LC and bkw... I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that.
It's kind of funny. At this point, it all comes down to whether you believe Ice is innocent or not. I know mad thinks Ice is guilty as heck. I'm thinking that rb's vote is almost an OMGUS vote. His single defense was the line, 'if you vote for me we lose.' Which has pretty been used by every mafia in every game ever.
I vote to lynch rb again.