He seems pretty resigned to his fate.
Part of me just thinks that answering a potentially tricky question like "hey how many are mafia out there" without thinking through the numbers and a careful response, would be a very bad move for mafforists. It's such an obviously lethal thing to do. It seems to be more like everyone who were throwing out numbers, and several reasons he could have got that.
Not that I am defending him, because he seems pretty resigned to his fate. It does seem to me though that there are several ways someone could have mistaken a number. That's all. I'm not saying he's not guilty - it just seems like way too simple a reason, in a game this complex. I'm not attempting to sway the vote from him, because if he's guilty, then he deserves it - but more importantly, if he's NOT guilty, then the moves to lynch him will be very revealing. (Not that I don't feel bad he's sort of the guppy for now, in the piranha tank.)
So you think he looks guilty, but not not guilty, but he may not be guilty, or not not guilty? It isn't hard to say "I suspect so and so". You don't have to be 100% sold to suspect someone, just say it though, don't beat around the bush.