Mafia 46: In the Dark

I may as well get this out of the way..I vote to lynch Lucky.

Rich is another that has my attention, looking back at posts he seemed to attempt to "protect" Dawg.

Noodles, sorry I'm still not feeling well about her either.
 
[AC] C-note;1817585 said:
Rich, here's a timeline of events that took place on Day 2, that I'm interested in.

8:45 am yesterday, you note that I seem innocent to you


1:02 pm yesterday, you note again that I am innocent and express interest in knowing who my suspects are.


4:48 pm yesterday, I make you aware of my #1 suspect when I vote for Dawg (again).


7:33 pm yesterday, you appear to be attempting to discredit my logic for going after Dawg.


9:22 pm yesterday, you mention thin logic (I'm assuming you're referring to me again), and now you've got me leaning mafia. You also make a wishy-washy comment about seeming unsure about Dawg.


Now this morning, I point out the inconsistency regarding how I had gone from looking pretty innocent in your mind to quickly being leaned mafia.


You respond that it was because I was talked about alot, as I was active and questioning.


A couple of things Rich... from the time you posted your confirmation that I still appeared innocent at 1:02 pm (post 468) to the time you leaned me mafia at 9:22 pm (post 532) I really hadn't been talked about much by anyone other than Dawg. DD made a mention of me as a suspect, but didn't say much to back that up. Maybe I missed a comment or two, but that's really about it. I definitely don't think my affiliation was a major topic of conversation for most of the town. So it seems strange you claim that my 'being talked about a lot' swayed your opinion enough for me to move from a strong innocent to mafia in a pretty short time.

So what might have swayed your opinion so quickly? It sure looks to me like my vote for Dawg might have been the factor.

You expressed interest in knowing my suspects when you called me innocent (again) in post 468. Once I voted for Dawg in post 493, though, in post 514 you appeared to be trying to discredit the logic behind my vote. Then in 532 you appear to be going after my logic again, and now have me listed as mafia.

It sure looks like you might have been trying to cover for Dawg, Rich. Care to comment?
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I play by feel. I don't note when what was said I just read and bring what I get out of it together in my head. Nothing really changed. I said I had wonders about you because you were active and that is what I meant. You were around a lot so your name popped up lot.

I was thinking of changing my vote late last evening, probably would have been Ogre so I am glad I did not. Both Ogre and dawg were on my list. I did not since I was sure of noodles so i decided to stay on her.
 
noodles62 said:
Gah! *footstomp* But I wanted to be your pick!! :cry:

I am beginning to really feel that Rich is a bigger threat than you, Ogre, (I know you are disappointed as well) but with the votes scattered the way they are it would have no impact to vote for him. *sigh*
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[AC] maelstrom;1817145 said:
Well at least you know its genuine on the part of those voting you.
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This is one of the reasons I am still uneasy about Noodles. She states that she is feeling Rich is a bigger threat then Ogre....but her vote would be wasted if she switched now the votes were close between Ogre and Dawg it was pretty clear one or the other was going to go had she switched her vote it at least would of made it closer for Dawg to be the one to go.
Mael makes the statement he would be willing to switch (at least that is the way I see he post), she didn't respond, leaving her vote on Ogre. Then later saying something to Lucky that his vote was wasted on me...he switched (to late of course) but who did he switch too, Ogre which would of put him in the lead. There is just something about all this that seems odd to me?
 
WOW, what a night!! Good work on those suspicious of Dawg!! I am still not sure of CJ's death... sucks that we lost another innocent though....

For now, I think I need an overhaul in my thinking... I am really stumped this game... I do feel like Lucky has made a major change from the beginning of the game up to even this point. Sure, school does get in the way but what about at night. There has been no fury of posts like there were before selection day.

I am still curious for the question I asked of c-note.... of which I still haven't seen the answer for...
 
Trying to work out who the other two scum last night were. This post doesn't really get anywhere as regards the new scum turned last night (if indeed there was a turn - I understood all had voted and that if both sides selected the same player that player died - could be wrong on this).

Final vote last night :


IceH2O said:
15 minutes till Night

 Day 2


Ogre-4- MC(489) Noodles(520)CJ(542)Dawg(621)


Dawg-4- Cnote(493)Mael(578)Ogre(604)Opi(611)


Noodles-2- Ogre(518)LG(563)Rich(584)


MC-1- JL(527)


LG-1-Lucky(531)


Cnote-1- Dawg(544)DD(582)


Everyone has voted



Bala can hear the roar of the Harleys as they get closer to town
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Ok those were the final votes.

Now bearing in mind that we got a mafia, and dawg was in the firing line from reasonably early or at least with sufficient time left for the 3 scum to react and move their votes around the question is begged as to why didn't they apart from Dawg giving himself a tie on Ogre.

I would say they didn't most likely because numerically they were goosed once dawg hit four votes, bearing in mind that apart from dawg they only have 2 votes. So if we look at where those two votes could go to influence the lynch it would have had to be either onto Ogre, to give dawg the out or onto Noodles to give Noodles 4 votes and tie them up with dawg.

Why not go to Ogre and give dawg the out ? because late switches onto an innocent presuming Ogre comes up innocent is going to hammer the late switcher and likely they lose a mafia anyway on the vote next night.

Why not go to Noodles, make it a three way tie ? Perhaps they were already on Noodles (that would be LG and Rich, who if I remember correctly jumped on board after Ogres vote. Pretty sure of that - don't hate me if I am wrong.

This is a plausible case for LG and Rich to be mafia and nothing else really explains the inactivity to save dawg.

To summarise - no activity because they elected not to hang Ogre and be implicated themselves on the next night, but to allow dawg expose himself as such (he could explain his switch as trying to save himself like any innocent would) and equally it was numerically impossible to put 2 votes anywhere else except Noodles, and LG and Rich were already on board.

This is at the least worth considering.

OgreMkV said:
If LadyG and Rich don't switch and Dawg is mafia, then we've got them.
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^ Is that sort of what you were thinking Ogre ?

Other possibilities :

a) Ogre is also mafia and it was an astute play which the other votes permitted to allow dawg tie himself up on Ogre. This would basically immunise Ogre making the best of a bad lot which was going to result one way or the other in a mafia lynch.

I don't really buy this. I was thinking of Ogre as innocent prior to last night.

b) I got nothing to explain it otherwise, except that perhaps the mafia are just lazy *** part-timers who have given up and could not be bothered to mount a rescue effort on dawg. This would put all those single votes in the frame for scum.

That's my thinking on Lady G and Rich at least. I don't have a closed mind to anything though and I havn't decided on a vote.
 
There's one other way of viewing the night. If you think Ogre is mafia, then I would put Opi as also mafia based on her voting dawg, then dawg shortly after tieing up the vote. This would be the "we are screwed and losing a mafia anyway so lets immunise one of them". This doesn't really fit though as if this was the case the vote to go for would be probably Opi and dawg onto Noodles, making Noodles the 4 vote loser (dawg would be out of the picture with 3 if that had happened.

I repeat that I am calling Ogre as innocent and had that view before the vote anyway. Now that dawg is mafia I am reassured of that.

Now I have to think about who the turn might have been or indeed if there actually was one. It sure would simplify the game for the innocents if not.
 
Noodles - neutral, leaning innocent.
Ogre - strong leaning towards innocent
Mostlycichlids - have no read on them
Rich - suspect mafia
Dawg Dead Scumbag
DD - neutral
Jbradt - dead innocent
Opi - have no read on them.
Lucky - strong leaning towards innocent
Cj - dead innocent
JL - have no read on them
Jarred - dead innocent
LG - suspect mafia
[AC] C-Note - I don't see what others see in them being mafia. I am not calling them innocent but I don't see it as yet so someone wants to make a case I will listen but otherwise I have a mild leaning towards innocence.

Ok that's about where I am on individuals presently.
 
Did I leave gun out of the above list ? If so dead innocent then obviously.
 
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