Mafia #67 - 50/50 -- The Play

Lab_Rat said:
Are you convinced he's innocent?

Remember, with this format, it's over 50/50 he's scum or SB.
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True, but it is also over 50/50 that he is innocent of SB.

The same odds for ALL of us.
 
Lab_Rat said:
No, it's not. It's 8/15 he's scum or SB (53%) and 7/15 for innocent (47%). Greater chance he's scum based on odds alone. When combined with what he's posted (changing his story about the cat thing too), I'd say there's a good chance he's scum.
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Not sure it's worth adding the SB in as scum since they technically don't count towards the numbers. There's the same odds though that he's innocent as he is scum, I think what JB is trying to say.

But I agree that based on his postings I'm not leaning innocent at all.
 
Kashta said:
Pappy, I'm concerned about FF too. But I'm also concerned about what looks to be a runaway train forming on one person... day 1. Also the fact that both Mad and Ice named him as scummy (or something like that) but withheld their votes.

Also, after going after Noodles so fast and so hard last game (which wasn't any fun)... I'm relucant to pick someone to vote early on with so little else going on yet in this game. While I agree with most of what was said and that it seems scummy as heck... I also wonder if this is an approach the mafia wants the town to take.
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I was just looking back through and came across this post again. That run away train just keeps picking up passengers it seems. Just makes the vote that much safer for scum...
 
You are right, I forgot he switched -

IceH2O said:
I retract my vote on FF and vote to lynch Lab


I have a problem with the way Lab took something FF wrote and only bolded a part of it. It takes away from the concept of the post. Most of her case is pretty much based on the fact of him asking the mafia team to invest him and from there its just snowballed.

Lab why did you only bold the part where he asks the mafia to invest him but leave out his reasoning right after it? It seems to me that was the more important part of the post. By doing that you altered the meaning and make the eyes focus on the negative part instead of the entire sentence.

Still not saying FF is innocent mind you just hate to see a 1 horse race. Its possible Lab is also a non comm mafia doing her best to look innocent and if they both are mafia its a no lose situation.
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johnlarson66 said:
Annie, so last game you let "crazy FF" slide by and this game you are not going to be fooled again? I think that is Dag's reason.

So is FF playing the same as last game? Different?

I think FF played very different last game. I really doubt he is part of a communicating team. I think FF has found himself in a battle of wits unarmed.
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jpappy789 said:
I believe I've already asked how FF is playing any differently. Last game we got caught up in the Noods-Kash fiasco, and FF was largely ignored. That does not, however, mean he played differently.
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ok, I quoted these 2 posts because of the questioning of FF's play last game. When I started last game, I don't recall his play because I was gone that last day. What I do remember though is the post that Labby posted with her #1-#5 and her findings in them.... I notice this game though that Labby is pretty hung up on FF and very lightly on a few others but nothing as exemplary as on FF. Labby, this is pretty different from your last game where you posted your thoughts in depth enough to number them, posted things about the game in general, both were pretty big posts were pretty long and again, in depth.... why aren't they so much like that here in this game? Yes, I know I voted FF and I still haven't seen anything scummier than his posts but as I read, with the focuses on how he played his last game.... I have to wonder why Labby is also playing differently than she did last game.... or how I see it, she is....

just a thought..... going back to read.
 
Lab_Rat said:
No, it's not. It's 8/15 he's scum or SB (53%) and 7/15 for innocent (47%). Greater chance he's scum based on odds alone. When combined with what he's posted (changing his story about the cat thing too), I'd say there's a good chance he's scum.
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Lab, you have twisted the numbers! The SB is neither mafia or innocent.

Will you admit that he has the same chance (7/15) of being mafia or innocent?
 
jpappy789 said:
Which is a much different view than what you originally said...
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Granted, Pappy, I overlooked the hole in my logic; I've admitted that already. But I don't think that saying I'm not convinced he's scum is contrary to saying if he is scum. I'm not convinced one way or the other. He's got just as much chance of being the SB as anyone else. Hell, he may be trying to draw votes by acting the way he's acting... I just think the train on him is a bigger distraction to the town than the little guy himself.
 
jbradt said:
I was just looking back through and came across this post again. That run away train just keeps picking up passengers it seems. Just makes the vote that much safer for scum...
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If FF shows scum, voting for him will not clear anyone totally, though it would make me trust some a bit more than others. But Dag voting for him means absolutely nothing since it was literally a random vote.
 
JB, you seem to be trying to change the subject? How is keeping FF around a good thing if he is mafia?
 
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