Mafia #70: The Time Vortex

[noodles62]

I never for a moment suggested JB's actions are good game play. This strikes me as a last ditch attempt to save Ogre.

JB would have played this smarter to continue laying low as he's been doing all along and just let Ogre take his lynch. There was a very good chance the shooter might have taken aim based on some other theory he/she had and this whole "just shoot Kashta because I say so" effort is a frantic idea they thought sounded good.

That I can see too, considering they know the townie PRs have been investigating them. Ogre was already demonstrated the exact same tactics. He was also at risk and exposed himself going after Zsand so hard... they've lost the turn they were counting on... and they made a stupid choice hitting FF.

Once FF turned out to be just a townie and a communicating innocentand they were afraid Ogre was the next scum to die.. all it takes is one investigation to identify Jb and they lose.

From what we can see of the mafia's strategy based on nightfall results (which isn't much), they haven't made very good tactical decisions, IMO.

 

[jbradt]

With all due respect, JB, that is absolute trash. You know full well this is a nightless format and the timing is depending SOLELY on one person's opinion. All you had to do was present a convincing claim to misdirect the shooter. Then they think it sounds logical on the surface and fires the shot before the rest of us have a chance to do what we need to do and offer alternate suggestions.

You're getting that chance right now, Kash. I'm not hearing you convincing many people. All I'm saying is that the GS can prove which one of us is evil by shooting the one they believe is most likely. At lest by narrowing it down to just us 2, the GS has a 50/50 shot of getting scum. That's much better odds than otherwise. You've presented a good case Kash. You truly are a masterful player. Unfortunately you don't seem (based on your comments) to hold me in the same regard. Oh well, I guess I'll get over that when one of us gets shot and everyone knows for sure what I do. I bet everyone in the scum den was busy congratulating you on how well you were doing... I can't wait to read it.

 

[noodles62]

Kash, if JB's RC is BS then why is there no other PR coming forward to discredit him? Could it be that he is telling the truth?

 

[dirtydawg10]

I never for a moment suggested JB's actions are good game play. This strikes me as a last ditch attempt to save Ogre.

JB would have played this smarter to continue laying low as he's been doing all along and just let Ogre take his lynch. There was a very good chance the shooter might have taken aim based on some other theory he/she had and this whole "just shoot Kashta because I say so" effort is a frantic idea they thought sounded good.

That I can see too, considering they know the townie PRs have been investigating them. Ogre was already demonstrated the exact same tactics. He was also at risk and exposed himself going after Zsand so hard... they've lost the turn they were counting on... and they made a stupid choice hitting FF.

Once FF turned out to be just a townie and a communicating innocent and they were afraid Ogre was the next scum to die.. all it takes is one investigation to identify Jb and they lose.

From what we can see of the mafia's strategy based on nightfall results (which isn't much), they haven't made very good tactical decisions, IMO.

So then why don't you lay down and welcome the shot if it's so stupid of a move? An innocent will die (most likely not a PR role or they would know who JB is already) and you will get the gun and shoot JB. Why have you failed to mention that yet? I'm guessing because you know you will die. If I was in your shoes and innocent i would welcome the shot because then I could be the one to take out a known scum.

 

[noodles62]

I also do not see how this could possibly be a last ditch effort to save Ogre. There is no saving him. He dug his grave and is most likely next, after you flip scum of course.

 

[Kashta]

Kash it appears that you see Ogre and JB as scum from the post above. If there are 3 left who do you suspect is the 3rd and why? Who are you leaning innocent right now?

I'm not sure who they turned, Dawg. Until last night, I thought Ogre or DD was their turn based on how they were posting differently than before. That's why I questioned Ogre about that, even though I felt bad for him over his (apparent) frustration. I also suspected Zsand and Zaffy for their game play... or rather lack of game play. I really wasn't looking at JB myself until he popped in with this all this.

DD wasn't the turn, obviously, and since JB's actions mirror the exact same strategy Ogre demonstrated before... I think those two are the original mafia. That's also a more consistent possibility looking back at the previous day's events.

Based on their choice of hit last night, I'm not sure who those two would have turned. But I believe now they just found out they'd lost their turn, whoever that was, and that's where this desperation came from in such a hurry.

I was suspecting Zaffy for a while and posted questions to him about that. The responses he gave satisfied me and I'm leaning him innocent, instead. (I was questioning Zsand as well at that same time and saw his replies to others... didn't think he answered them well, but I was obviously wrong about that... as were many folks.) Others I'm leaning innocent are you, Lab Rat, Wizard, and Noods.... and most likely JL and Mad as well. I'm not sure about either Bishop or Rich anymore.

 

[jbradt]

I'm not sure who they turned, Dawg. Until last night, I thought Ogre or DD was their turn based on how they were posting differently than before. That's why I questioned Ogre about that, even though I felt bad for him over his (apparent) frustration. I also suspected Zsand and Zaffy for their game play... or rather lack of game play. I really wasn't looking at JB myself until he popped in with this all this.

DD wasn't the turn, obviously, and since JB's actions mirror the exact same strategy Ogre demonstrated before... I think those two are the original mafia. That's also a more consistent possibility looking back at the previous day's events.

Based on their choice of hit last night, I'm not sure who those two would have turned. But I believe now they just found out they'd lost their turn, whoever that was, and that's where this desperation came from in such a hurry.

I was suspecting Zaffy for a while and posted questions to him about that. The responses he gave satisfied me and I'm leaning him innocent, instead. (I was questioning Zsand as well at that same time and saw his replies to others... didn't think he answered them well, but I was obviously wrong about that... as were many folks.) Others I'm leaning innocent are you, Lab Rat, Wizard, and Noods.... and most likely JL and Mad as well. I'm not sure about either Bishop or Rich anymore.

Why are you not sure about Rich, Kash?

 

[Kashta]

Sorry that was confusing. It's the weekday so I keep getting interrupted with work while trying to post.

That should have read:

Once FF turned out to be just a townie and not a communicating innocent as they expected.... and they were afraid Ogre was the next scum to die.. all it takes is one investigation to identify Jb and they lose.

Kash, if JB's RC is BS then why is there no other PR coming forward to discredit him? Could it be that he is telling the truth?

As I said before, a real PR outting themselves in this game would be a horrible mistake. I'm sure the scum team is hoping they'll do just that to prove JB is lying.

 

[jbradt]

Sorry that was confusing. It's the weekday so I keep getting interrupted with work while trying to post.

That should have read:

Once FF turned out to be just a townie and not a communicating innocent as they expected.... and they were afraid Ogre was the next scum to die.. all it takes is one investigation to identify Jb and they lose.



As I said before, a real PR outting themselves in this game would be a horrible mistake. I'm sure the scum team is hoping they'll do just that to prove JB is lying.

There's a much easier way to prove who's lying, Kash. I'm sure the GS will take care of it when they're ready. And I don't see it as a mistake.

 

[Kashta]

So then why don't you lay down and welcome the shot if it's so stupid of a move? An innocent will die (most likely not a PR role or they would know who JB is already) and you will get the gun and shoot JB. Why have you failed to mention that yet? I'm guessing because you know you will die. If I was in your shoes and innocent i would welcome the shot because then I could be the one to take out a known scum.

Dawg, if this really was the gunslinger game.. you would be right and I'd tell the GS to just shoot me and be done with it to prove JB is lying. Then I'd be the gunslinger and JB would get killed.

However, I still see no evidence from Pappy to suggest this format will continue AFTER nightfall. That theory goes against everything we already know about THIS game.

If that's true it means I won't get that gun to take JB out like we did in that game. Pappy's time machine will kick in before then, we'll have lost the innocent shooter (who the mafia picked themselves for that reason in the first place), and they've got another 48 day and another screwy format to use to try to confuse us again with something else.

Meanwhile, they've succeeded in protecting Ogre long enough for us to go after other people instead. You know as well as I do that delaying an inevitable lynch is often all it takes to divert suspicion away from someone long enough for new suspects and new diversions to mislead the town into thinking someone else is "more scummy." It's a known tactic to stay alive long enough to do something else you already have planned.