Mafia Game #4 The Play
- Thread starter Rbishop
- Start date
Yup a lemming to the end 
In truth your list and observations have been key JM and if the mob had of successfully whacked you we would of been railroaded I know it. You and DD are this game's allstars no doubt. I dunno JL was the first to vote on Day 1 (for me) very early I felt. And now they follow you blindly like a good townie, it just pings my Meter a bit. I still feel bkw is a strong suspect as well. And Jensons has been very laid back and quiet for the most part. I am confident that the last Mafia voted coler yesterday. And I strongly feel if we lynch HN it will be a bad move.
In truth your list and observations have been key JM and if the mob had of successfully whacked you we would of been railroaded I know it. You and DD are this game's allstars no doubt. I dunno JL was the first to vote on Day 1 (for me) very early I felt. And now they follow you blindly like a good townie, it just pings my Meter a bit. I still feel bkw is a strong suspect as well. And Jensons has been very laid back and quiet for the most part. I am confident that the last Mafia voted coler yesterday. And I strongly feel if we lynch HN it will be a bad move.
OgreMkV
Father of Earth's Next Emperor
This is me thinking out loud. Take it how you will.
Townies, we have a 1 in 13 shot of getting the last mafia... OK, a one in maybe 8 shot since there are a few players that no one will vote for at this point. The mafia has a 1 in 12 shot of getting the mayor. We need to give him time to get a few more investigations going.
To be perfectly honest, I think the town can flush out the last mafia within three turns. It would be much easier with a pool of known innocents, but we have to make sure that there are enough known innocents to survive until the mafia is rooted out.
In my mind, the worse thing the mafia can do is lynch JMax. That gives us a free night of investigations. So she's safe for a few more turns. It also gives us a known innocent to build a trusted group around. Also, as far as I'm concerned Zsandmann is without reproach. He is innocent. Now if the mayor knows of two other innocents, then we automatically win. The lynching and mafia hits will end up leaving 3 players two of whom will know that each other is innocent. If the mayor knows one other innocent, then we probably win. If the mayor has investigated dead people ("I see tatoos on dead people.") then we need to give the moayor more time and hope the mafia doesn't hit a 1/12 shot.
Townies, we have a 1 in 13 shot of getting the last mafia... OK, a one in maybe 8 shot since there are a few players that no one will vote for at this point. The mafia has a 1 in 12 shot of getting the mayor. We need to give him time to get a few more investigations going.
To be perfectly honest, I think the town can flush out the last mafia within three turns. It would be much easier with a pool of known innocents, but we have to make sure that there are enough known innocents to survive until the mafia is rooted out.
In my mind, the worse thing the mafia can do is lynch JMax. That gives us a free night of investigations. So she's safe for a few more turns. It also gives us a known innocent to build a trusted group around. Also, as far as I'm concerned Zsandmann is without reproach. He is innocent. Now if the mayor knows of two other innocents, then we automatically win. The lynching and mafia hits will end up leaving 3 players two of whom will know that each other is innocent. If the mayor knows one other innocent, then we probably win. If the mayor has investigated dead people ("I see tatoos on dead people.") then we need to give the moayor more time and hope the mafia doesn't hit a 1/12 shot.
I would add to your thoughts Ogre that if the Vigilante comes forward and is not challenged then we have one more CONFIRMED Innocent. If two people come forward as Vigilante we have a 50/50 chance of hitting the last MAfia because only the last Mafia and the Vig would claim to be the Vig. Same goes for the Mayor but I agree we shouldn't out the mayor with no viable Mafia candidate.
No apologies needed.... alot of people are making my hair stand now too and I'm developing a tick. I'm gonna go back and read your original list and the fallout afterwards for any other possibilities. If I weren't me right now, I'd suspect me too!
OOOO! Z I like your thinking! It's a win-win situation. Either a confirmed innocent or a 50-50 chance at mafia...
OgreMkV
Father of Earth's Next Emperor
Z, I really like your list, especially since I'm so close to being a confirmed innocent
But it seems like you read my mind.
I to , at this point, would like to know who the vigilante was, first of all, to thank them, and second of all, it is another confirmed innocent, ..I have my suspicions as to who I thought it was, and I made that (un)clear as well, ..LOL, i knew dd was the dr, i used logical deduction, she wouldn't have had much to go on the first night, however, she could only save people on nights that she had no votes against herself,,,so, in my opinion, after reading, and checking votes she was a logical deduction.now, IF i could just logically deduct who the heck the last mafia is! ..
