JohnLarson66 has put out the idea of voting to lynch 'nobody,' and a couple of folks have jumped on board. Here's why I think it may hurt the concerned citizens.
- The game is currently at 10 vs. 10. To win, the citizens need to lynch 10 rebels...lynching 'nobody' ensures that we won't lynch a citizen, but it also ensures that we won't lynch a rebel, either. Currently citizens have a 50% chance of randomly lynching a rebel.
- A rebel hit will go thru tonight. Rebels have a 5/15 (33%) chance of hitting the other rebel team, and 10/15 (67%) chance of hitting a citizen. Chances are that we will lose a citizen to a rebel hit tonight.
Citizens have a 50% chance to hit the rebels tonight; rebels have 67% chance to hit citizens (7% chance of pegging the president). In mafia, the bad guys always have a greater chance of hitting the good guys. This usually isn't problematic, as the good guys usually greatly outnumber the bad guys. That's not the case here; number of good guys equals the number of bad guys.
Technically we're already in a race to the finish with the rebels, and IMO, they have already have the advantage....they've got equal numbers, and 6 investigations between the two teams (and they can end the game with one hit).
While lynching correctly is important, citizens will need to play agressively (not rashly, though) to win the game. A conservative approach is likely to leave the citizenry sitting ducks for the rebels. There's always going to be the chance that we'll lynch a citizen (or even worse, the president), but I don't think we can let that deter us from lynching someone tonight. We NEED to play smart and aggressively at the same time.