Mafia #13 - The Witches of ACville- the play

[Swayde]

I don't know what to think. I still don't like Ogre's post he made earlier because it was just not logical. He's been very off this game and I am just not sure if this last minute pleading of his innocence is sincere or not.

I don't know if DC is legit or not. Coming out because you have 2 votes on you and are worried of being burned, just doesn't seem very likely, but I've been in his shoes before and I know how nerve wracking it was. I at least had helped lynch a werewolf and had investigated another, but I can't know what's going thru DC's mind. I am innocent, but any witch would know that as well as an investigator. I can't figure out why on earth someone would have investigated me over Ice, Z, Ogre, DD, Jpap...all of whom I believe are harder to read than I am.

When Ogre was Sheriff and I was Doctor we had both agreed right off the bat that if someone came out and claimed to be the Doctor to just let it play out and bite our tongues. So that leaves me to wonder if this is legit or not as well.

There are way too many people being silent at this point. It's making it very, very difficult to judge alignments. I know my game play has been off this round, I just can't quite seem to get any real strong feelings or anything. So I am going with the only thing I've really seen that worries me, and that is Ogre. I don't know if it's right or wrong, but I really hope it's not wrong.

I don't ask for anyone to agree with me, vote with, or trust me since I don't even trust DC. I ask for everyone to read the posts, and decide on your own who you feel is most likely to be a witch and vote for them. And talk...please post so maybe we can shed some light on the lurkers in the shadow and make them slip up.

 

[plantling]

ok so just brkd and kotd need votes now...wonder where they are? maybe another late vote from brkd??? and kings silence is troubling, he put a vote in yesterday with little thought or reason then disappears. seems like he was just trying to pick up on the slightest chance of suspicion and just throw a vote out to survive the day...hmmm...

That's why I have my vote on King. He's hard enough to read as it is, but when he doesn't post it makes me wonder even more.


I've already stated why I don't feel comfortable voting for BrkD at this time and Ogre just doesn't give me a witchy vibe. I have agreed with most of what he's said in the game and believe he is busy as he has stated. Also I'm pretty sure DC would not out himself unless he was the real herbalist but since Ogre hasn't been investigated, I just don't feel comfortable voting there.

I have to go see about dinner but hope to make it back on the pc before nightfall just in case.

 

[IceH2O]

Well a good base analysis of a situation can be helpful regardless of what side you're playing...the facts are easily verifiable, so the things you say obviously make some sense. However, I've been led astray before by immediately thinking that anyone who posts useful info for the town must obviously be innocent...the guilty folks also try hard to blend in by making useful observations, so based on that, while I appreciate your analysis, right now its not enough to make me jump up and down in town square saying "Ice is innocent!!"

I can accept that and I wouldn't ask you to scream I am innocent. But if you're so afraid to be led astray then why are you following so closely?

After reviewing things. Apparently the connection between Ice and DC was in my own mind and just based on the fact that I thought them both witches.

Sorry.

That being said, I'm willing to leave off brk and switch to DC. It appears that a brk vote will be wasted and as long as I switch to someone else I believe to be a witch, then I'll be satisfied.

I retract my vote for brk and vote to burn DC at the stake.

P.S. I haven't been around as much as I could be, other things are going on at home, but I'm getting a little free time at work, so that's why my posting schedule seems off.

So you decide that there is no connection after all then vote DC, then later on in the thread you are again saying I'm witch? Based on a claim of him being the herbalist?

So far my beliefs are

Innocent:
DD
Swayde
plantling

Possible innocents:
ZSand
Sploke
The newbs

Get a Bad Feeling about:
Jpap
Ice
CS

Very little vibe:
KOTD
Ogre

This list is so wrong IMO, I don't believe DC is the herbalist. I think Jpap points it out later in the quotes but it seems a great ploy to try. How can you get very little vibe from Ogre? I agree with his innocents but not with his Bad feelings, Jpap and Charlie don't strike me as witchy. I noticed Splokes bottom half is similar

I vote to burn jpappy.

something about him this game is really tweaking my radar. I know you guys keep saying "oh, he's so helpful" blah blah blah. Guilty people have to try and seem helpful, thats kind of how the game works. And at this point, its only "alleged" help, we can't actually confirm any of the identities of the 90% or so of the people in this game he's jumped on.

Sploke is really jumping out at me. He has gone back and forth on plantling based only on Ice's analysis of her. Is he trying to latch on to an innocent? Why no thoughts of your own splokey???

I agree that I don't like DC coming out as the herbalist. It seems like he threw that out there too quickly when people began questioning him. Especially when he said specifically why he wouldn't protect Lady g. I don't think anyone questioned why the herbalist didn't save her, but thats just an opinion. Also, the investigation of swayde is weak. Either the team doesn't really know what to do or he threw out swaydes name because nobody was questioning her and her innocence would seem likely. I can't trust him yet...

My vote will probably fall off of Brks as is was a rushed vote but I don't have a really strong suspect yet.

I agree Jpap, for someone that doesn't trust me more then a 6 they sure do follow my lead. I'm with you on the DC thing too. I think they are trying to force the herbalists hand, or the Prophet since they are the only one that can verify DCs claim.

I didn't like DC coming out either, but I've noticed from previous games that he gets fairly jumpy when a few people start tossing his name about, especially only a few hours from nightfall. I've seen it with him playing both good and evil, so its no surprise (to me anyway) that he felt forced to come out to save himself. Not saying it was the right time, but it was from his perspective.

Jpappy...you say that me not agreeing with your list is not enough reason to vote someone? If you are a witch (which I think you are), then you know exactly who are not witches...i.e. me, DC (apparently), B the newbie who's easy to make a case for, and possibly K who's always quiet so no one every knows whats going on with him. Throw in a fellow witch who's name has come up a few times (Ogre) and you have yourself a viable list thats easy to sell to the masses. Well, this villager is not buying.

In closing,

I'd have to add Sploke to my list of possibles, something doesn't seem right and I'll look tonight to see if I can find anything to strengthen my suspicion or to help me ease my mind.

The DC coming out I'm having trouble with. I could see them investigating Sway, she played us all the other game very well as an evil. But her coming up innocent doesn't mean diddly. Actually anyone coming up innocent means nothing. The HP shows innocent. I'm not saying Sway is the HP, very far from that, I believe her innocent.

I'm not sure about the Ogre DC jump marathon between the 2 of them but I think its all part of the plan that includes the coming out. I'm not saying DC isn't but I want to do some more thinking on it. I'm almost positive Ogre is witch.

The post I made about JMs voters has DC pegged as evil. None of the reasons worked for me. Maybe they need to be reread Post 487. Maybe I missed something? Hmm don't think so really.

My list as it stands at this minute

B -until he shows different he will be on the list, not saying he has to go right away but he hasn't shown me anything to make me trust him

DC- still have the feeling, if he is Herbalist then he comes off, but I'm thinking he isn't

Ogre- Had the feeling since early on, past posts give me enough proof that I'd feel comfortable burning him

Sploke - As I said he was joining the list, just until I look into him

KOTD- Basically the same boat as B, nothing to make me trust him, the LG vote was weak and he isn't helping the town. I wonder why he even plays, he was UD the last 2 games. He obviously doesn't want to play.

 

[ZSandmann]

Day 2 will end at 8 PM EST, Wednesday, 10/17
10/13 Votes – No Vote: King, Ice, BrkD
4-Ogre: Swayde (539) DC (540) ZSandmann (550) bluerat (580)
3-BrkD: Charlie (406) jpappy (465) Ogre (495) DD (500) Ogre (564)
1-KOTD: plantling (517)
1-jpappy: sploke (558)
1-sploke: jpappy (563)
0-DeputyChief: ZSandmann (505) Swayde (533) Ogre (535) ZSandmann (544)

 

[Rbishop]

Update...thru post 594.....

I have the votes as the list above....

less than 90 minutes to nightfall....

PMs as required please...

opcorn:

 

[ZSandmann]

Lol Rb, love to torment us huh?

Where are King and BrkD???

 

[IceH2O]

I've seen this pattern from JM before. Its aggravating but not necessarily incriminating, she goes off about how she's picking up on clues no one else sees and has things figured out, but then doesn't tell anyone whats going on. Not exactly new...

I agree with this idea, B is coming across as a newer player, but not necessarily guilty to me yet. I remember when I was new and made a few jokes about something and suddenly I was like number one suspect, so it takes some experience to figure out what you can and can't say without triggering everyone's very sensitive triggers, especially on day one when we have no information.



( this was from JM directed at DD) While I hate to agree with JM at this point, DD is coming across with a much bolder playing style than I have seen from her in the past. Before, she was always a suspect for low posting and kiind of hanging back and only coming forward when called out...her style has gotten a bit more overt than that now, which makes me suspicious.

Also, JM seems like she's kind of blowing everyone off regardless of what they say about her, and as usual the shopping list of why she may or may not be active at any given moment. Seems like someone trying way too hard to seem like they're not trying to seem innocent.

CS, to me, is playing his usual role...think Van Helsing on speed. Nothing he's done so far re. voting for about everyone in the game, really raises any flags for me. He's always kind of off the wall and twitchy.

May I aske what changed your mind on Charlie? Last I saw any mention he wasn't tweaking anything with you.But DD was.

Thats it for now, so my top suspicions right now are placed on JM and DD.

I think DC's logic was that he said he was out partying, and someone said something to the effect of "yeah likely story you're probably just evil". anyone who has played in at least one game with DC knows his history of missed votes and drunk postings...hm if I keep going someone's going to try and start an intervention. Anyway, JM also has a history of posting a fair amount, most of which contain not much actual info, but allusions to having info, and lots of excuses why she can't post. If she spent that time actually posting thoughts instead of excuses, she'd actually contribute a fair amount to the game.

Protecting DC? While at the same time now JM is suspect

How exactly am I flip-flopping? I am (trying to) defend the same position I took up last night, i.e. suspicion of JM and DD, although I haven't posted anything about DD at all today. I then voted for plantling because of some of the commentary from others, and so far I haven't seen any reason to change. First day is a crapshoot anyway, as we all know. For the innocent anyway, the witches should have a pretty clear idea of who to vote for. Anyway, tell me where in there I'm flip flopping around and I'll try to explain my thoughts.

Following? Hiding among the crowd?

I meant flip-flopping with defending DC's point on jm and you own point about her acting normal.

Sploke I am trying to figure out how you went from point A to point B with your thoughts on judge.



This does not seem like you are entirely suspicious of jm at all. You even said it was not necessarily incriminating.



Then you jump to saying she is suspicious??? If I read this correctly, you don't think her clue thing was suspicious but her excuses were???



Funny how you didn't see a solid reason to vote anyone and just chose plantling to go along with it but now you come back after being questioned and say that you agree with people about their suspicions of her. I have no doubt in my mind that you wouldn't have ever mentioned your vote on plantling again unless you decided to switch to another innocent tonight...

Jpap points it out that Sploke is a follower.

This post isn't making a whole lot of sense to me but I'll do my best to explain my thoughts.

First, yes looking at JM I saw the same pattern emerging. After a few more posts from her, it began to look (to me anyway) like an evil person trying really hard to seem innocent. So, hence the increase in suspicion level. that tends to happen in this game, people change their minds as they get new information and insights from others.

When I voted plantling, I stated then that I was going along with the reasons that had been previously given. Stating that again is not exactly a jump.

I'm not sure what you mean with the comment about not mentioning the vote again unless called out on it. Plenty of people make a vote then don't say much else about it unless they decide to change.

I guess I just don't see where the suspicion is coming from. You're taking normal game elements and saying that they are making me look suspicious. I'm not really sure how else to play the game besides looking for clues and changing my perceptions of people, then voting. If you have a better way, please feel free to enlighten me.

Hm well thats an interesting result for the night.

Lady G, not by any means a clear townie, taken by the witches.

JM was innocent so I guess I was off there.

The herbalist failed to save anyone, or even try to save anyone, from the looks of it.

B is all over the place, and a few of his comments are a little suspicious. Obviously the last minute vote raised some eyebrows, especially without any reasoning, but I think it was just to throw a vote out there to stay in the game. The comments afterward just scream "confused newbie" to me, especially with the remarks from Jpappy. I don't think its a rookie bad guy slip-up.

Protecting B or knows B is innocent and attaching to them as they are with me

Thats it for now, just wanted to talk my thoughts out there. Lets see how everyone comes back from this.

That was my thought too Z...why take the chance on an unknown when, if someone becomes known and need it and its already been used, we're screwed.

I agree swayde, I'm still really feeling it was a newbie/confusion issue over waiting for direction from someone. I have lots of leaning innocent, but not as many leaning guilty, and i'm far fuzzier there anyway...not a good sign for the time being. Based on Ice's analysis, I guess plantling has moved over toward the innocent side for me right now, after the voting last night. That alsl fits in with B being innocent. I also (obviously) want to believe in Ice, but he;s good so I'm hesitant to go off in that direction just yet. Bluerat I also think is making newbie errors without realizing how lightly you have to step on the eggshells before someone hangs/stakes/burns you for cracking a few. Thats it for now, I have to head to bed. We shall see what the morning brings.

Well a good base analysis of a situation can be helpful regardless of what side you're playing...the facts are easily verifiable, so the things you say obviously make some sense. However, I've been led astray before by immediately thinking that anyone who posts useful info for the town must obviously be innocent...the guilty folks also try hard to blend in by making useful observations, so based on that, while I appreciate your analysis, right now its not enough to make me jump up and down in town square saying "Ice is innocent!!"

Dude I don't know what your deal is...I said it before, and I reiterated it. It adds up because its what I really think, not because its some elaborate plan that I'm making up as I go along. Why are you surprised when I said "your guilties are my innocents" and my list actually states that?

Well I figured you'd be able to figure it out from my posts but I'll say it explicitly, I'll even rate everyone. (10=good, 1=evil)

lady 10 - confirmed
judge 10 - confirmed
sploke 10 (me)
swayde 10 - confirmed by DC (going with this until someone can prove otherwise)
deputy - 10 (see above)
BrkD - 8
bluerat - 7
zsand - 6
DD - 6
ice - 6
kotd - 5
plant - 5
ogre - 4
charlie - 4
jpap - 3

So obviously I'm not 100% sure on the guilty side, but the bottom half is basically what I was left with after picking out who I think is actually innocent.

I don't have any opinion yet. I have to see some more play out before I decide either way.

My only worries right now are his suspects. I don't agree with them and I don't see why his suspects changed but there has been no explanations to why.

Maybe if you could give us reasoning instead of numbers it would help

 

[KingOfTheDeep]

sorry all, spent most of the day with my mom and grandmother.

im torn between ogre and BKW right now, i'm not to sure about either..but b has been extra quiet(as have i)..but i had somewhere to be..

lets make things interesting

i vote to burn BKW

 

[IceH2O]

sorry all, spent most of the day with my mom and grandmother.

im torn between ogre and BKW right now, i'm not to sure about either..but b has been extra quiet(as have i)..but i had somewhere to be..

lets make things interesting

i vote to burn BKW

Acid flashbacks?

 

[ZSandmann]

sorry all, spent most of the day with my mom and grandmother.

im torn between ogre and BKW right now, i'm not to sure about either..but b has been extra quiet(as have i)..but i had somewhere to be..

lets make things interesting

i vote to burn BKW

Hope you're all doing well. But BKW isn't playing this round