Mafia #20 - Pirates of the Carribean the Play

[Grins]

whoops, messed up Meemee's quote but hopefully you can all see where it started and ended:

Thank you G...I did see your list, and the only person that I have a gut feeling about right now is JP. And my gut is telling me he is one of us. A townie. He has become an experienced player, and he does play different when he is a bad person. He is less vocal and less helping. And here he is pulling out all the stops...I dont think JP is a Pirate...

 

[Lady G]

Off work early (gotta love network freezes!) and I see a few very interesting things already today.



Blue- The first highlighted sentence almost sounds like you're making your own case that YOU are the Captain. That would be foolish. I believe you're a Pirate, but I know you are far from foolish. The second one contradicts that, since you have been being questioned.

I believe that you are an intentional distraction.

Lady G- You're right, Grins is not a known innocent, but she is the closest thing to a living one that we have. I think you've fully come out by choosing only to focus on the remote possibility that she isn't and by trying to introduce confusion to the town with your wild theories. I agree that by the rules, it appears possible, but in many games you've played where it was possible for a PR to be taken by the evils how many times has it happened? Once, I believe. AND the fact that Clown's post said the Watchman was the one that saw the celebration pretty much blows that theory out of the water.

I believe you are also a distraction.

Mad- Well played as always.

I vote to make Mad walk the plank.

HN, originally I was just saying it was possible..not that I really thought it happened..then she came all full force throwing accusation like crazy at me. Saying I was "acting", calling my pirate, giving me the "mafia award"...sorry but the more she came at me like she did, the more I felt there was something to what I said.
No, it has not happened often, you are right..but the possibility was there.
Think what you want HN, I am not an Intentional distraction, the possibility was there, I stated it, and she FREAKED.

 

[Lady G]

I've already explained when in 1058:

Did I know he was an innocent? No, not until he was lynched. But I had a clue that he might not be as I said up above. His clues were enough to make me look at others but not enough to have me convinced he wasn't a pirate. I figured I'd take my vote off of him when I discovered the misquote I had made concerning Blue & DD (the one that should have read Blue & JM). I hoped that any of the other innocents would question me doing it and look closer at what I was saying about who the other more likely pirates were (JM).

And before you ask, why did I risk not having more people vote for JM? Because Ice put it out there as plain as day that he was the guard and was going to get JM:

So let me ask you in return, if I had suddenly switched from an innocent to a pirate (which I still find laughable), wouldn't the pirates onboard the pirate ship be telling me that such scenerios had existed in the past? I am not aware of them as a newer player but certainly the pirates aren't all newbies and one of them would have said "hey Grins easy there, LG is going to bust you on that" But nope, I don't have any such thing happening. I'm sitting here on my own playing and calling it as I see it as I have been all along. And LadyG, I think you're a likely pirate and want other innocents to take a harder look at you.

Although he thankfully gave away a huge clue about it. I mentioned it here:

and here:

I was way off in thinking Rb was pirate mafia at that time but I'm glad it was off because it gave me a reason to trust Ice. I'll be more careful about why I trust him next time, but for the time being I'm glad I did.

If you're innocent like Beth was it could serve you well. If you're a pirate I'm not surprised in the least.

Thank you

Thank you again

Glad it isn't only obvious to me.

1. thank you
2. Ya know, there should be a rule that all newbies get to play on a communicating team at least 2 games so they can learn some of this history easier.

Interesting, I've been wondering who some of the experienced players would think was Blackbeard and possibly being protected by Blue's post you quoted as well. I've not yet decided where I'll place my vote and open to hearing why you think Mad is the likely captain.

Thank you G...I did see your list, and the only person that I have a gut feeling about right now is JP. And my gut is telling me he is one of us. A townie. He has become an experienced player, and he does play different when he is a bad person. He is less vocal and less helping. And here he is pulling out all the stops...I dont think JP is a Pirate...
quote]

Interesting, thanks for that insight on how he has played before. What are your thoughts on who is a pirate right now?

So, you didn't really think he was innocent until after it was posted? The post you directed me to was after nightfall, I'm saying at the time you switched your vote, why didn't you voice you "insight" to his "clues" maybe it would of helped to take the Planking off of RB. Ice could of directed his hit at someone else and JMax could of been Planked instead of RB.

LOL, if I was a pirate..you really think I would want ppl to look closer at me Grins...you really are funny. Obviously you do not know me to well, no when I am evil, I do as much as possible to stay out of the light. Look at last game...I was the LAST mafia standing..and it wasn't because I wanted others to look at me I made it that far.

 

[Lady G]

Thank you G...I did see your list, and the only person that I have a gut feeling about right now is JP. And my gut is telling me he is one of us. A townie. He has become an experienced player, and he does play different when he is a bad person. He is less vocal and less helping. And here he is pulling out all the stops...


I dont think JP is a Pirate...


My late vote for RB was a horrible mistake and I should have kept it on JL. As for me and you being linked (LC), I never thought once about it. And no one else did also. And as far as I am concerned, I don't think you are a pirate also. I have to revise my list. As I said it was not set in stone. And you have helped us out tremendously...


No, it will be locked after the night fall of Friday. And he will still give us what we need...


My gut is telling me that JP is not a Pirate...and yes, now I am defending him...For I don't think he is a pirate...Why the sudden change for me. He is not playing like a bad person..Sorry about that JP...

I have a bad feeling about JP myself. I am not sure where my vote is going to end up this time around, but he is looking very suspicious to me. I know he said he would be busy, through out the weekend and Monday, but it is now Thursday (right LOL) and he STILL isn't helping or posting. Yes, when he post it is insightful, but could easily be made to look that way.

I am going to have to look more into Mad, really I haven't looked much at him..because he just hasn't said or done anything to make me wonder about him, with HN vote on him it made me think about him more..not sure what I think, just that I need to look into him also.

 

[mee-mee]

I have a bad feeling about JP myself. I am not sure where my vote is going to end up this time around, but he is looking very suspicious to me. I know he said he would be busy, through out the weekend and Monday, but it is now Thursday (right LOL) and he STILL isn't helping or posting. Yes, when he post it is insightful, but could easily be made to look that way.

I am going to have to look more into Mad, really I haven't looked much at him..because he just hasn't said or done anything to make me wonder about him, with HN vote on him it made me think about him more..not sure what I think, just that I need to look into him also.

But, LG, I didnt say I had a bad feeling about JP anymore. I said my gut tells me he is a Townie...I did in the beginning of the game think he was a pirate but I did change my mind. Even though we were wrong about RB...he did bring some good points about rb...but that was not the case. Alot of us do go to extremes to try and figure peeps out in the game and the majority of the time we are wrong.

 

[Lady G]

Hooked Newbie
Blueiz
Dangerdoll
Lady G
mee-mee
Malbri
LesbianChap
jpappy789
Madcrawdad
Grins

Ok, I am going to look at things like this, for a minute.

HN/Mad-I believe one to be innocent the other Pirate. I do not think them both to be either. Not sure which I feel is which though at this moment.

MM/Jpap-Same as above, although with these two I could see distancing. Then if you look at JL, it kinda takes me away from MM. Really I haven't seen her play as Pirate though.

Blue/DD-Both have my interest. Blue more then DD actually, I know that sounds weird coming from me, but I have gone back and forth with her the whole game although her after nightfall post, did raise my suspicion again on her. Blue, I have a feeling is pirate.

Lchap/Mal-I am wondering more about Mal at this point. Lchap keeps my interest, but I keep leaning him back toward innocent each time.

Grins/Lady G-Well, I know what I am, and it is not pirate. Grins, really I do believe to be innocent at the moment too. But the way she came at me like she did...really has me wondering. Yes, I know what Clown's posts said...but still I can't quite get a grip on her outburst toward me for mentioning the possibility.

So this leaves me thinking:
Jpap
HN or Mad
Blue & or DD
Mal

 

[Lady G]

But, LG, I didnt say I had a bad feeling about JP anymore. I said my gut tells me he is a Townie...I did in the beginning of the game think he was a pirate but I did change my mind. Even though we were wrong about RB...he did bring some good points about rb...but that was not the case. Alot of us do go to extremes to try and figure peeps out in the game and the majority of the time we are wrong.

Ok, yes you did..sorry. Like I said right now I'm just at a loss, but I can't help but feel he may be pirate.

 

[Madcrawdad]

8) The Innocents win if they lynch more than 50% of the total pirate population or you kill Black Beard.

Running the numbers once again:
Worst Case
Pirates: Started: 7 Now: 5
Innocents: Started: 9 Now: 4
Thief: 1
Middle Case
Pirates: Started: 6 Now: 4
Innocents: Started: 10 Now: 5
Thief: 1
Best Case
Pirates: Started: 5 Now: 3
Innocents: Started: 11 Now: 6
Thief: 1

As I stated before, I believe we're looking at a middle/best case senario. We've got 6 known innocents, one living. We're 2 pirates down, and need 1 more for a win.

LChap, I've been giving this some thought. If you see the rules, we need to eliminate MORE than 50% of the pirate pop. (or 1 Blackbeard) to win. With 7 pirates that would me more than 3.5 pirates, or 4. With 6 pirates that would mean more than 3, or 4. So regardless of whether there are 6 or 7, we still need to get 4 in total. With that being the case, the 7 pirates may be a more attractive option than the 6. While 7 may offer them more weight come lynch time, it does present a larger pool to shoot into.

So, while ideally 5 pirates would be the best scenario, whether we started with 6 or 7 in the game is kind of irrelevant as we need to ultimately kill the same amount in either scenario.

A couple of new


[*]Mad, I had heard you were a clever player when I last played this game. You were one that I was told a few times to watch out for. And right now since it is out that I'm an innocent townie let me say that you're being watched and I hope that others can pick up on this and those that can talk as innocents will.

Grins, I would ask that you watch away. And please ask some questions so that I can answer. Unfortunately, this isn't the 1st game where I've been accused of being scum just because folks think I would be good at it. It's kind of a hard thing for me to defend against, as with no questions asked, my only response can be 'Thanks, I think...'.

Grins Assumed innocent-I say Assumed b/c really she COULD be the watchman, went to the Pirate side, they put their hit on her having her "protect" herself..then we all would "confirm" her innocent.
We do not know what their "celebration" was..and it WAS not the captain got to drunk, the only other options could be A.)Innocent turned Pirate...or B.) Captain switched places.

I feel pretty good that we're safe in assuming that Grins is a known innocent. There was one special occurrence on each of the two nights so far...1) botched hit 2) pirate caught and killed. Nobody switched sides.

IMO the only way that Grins wouldn't be a townie is if she were the thief. It doesn't make sense, though, that the pirates would try to assasinate their potential investigator. Grins is the real deal.

Now the second night. This was the night I switched my focus from RB to JM. I believe that all voting for JM are innocent..except Mad. Why give Mad the pass? Because he thought JM was safe from the lynch (which she was). With the way the pirates had us all focus on Rb, JM was probably going to be saved. My guess is that Mad might be the new captain. That I'm just throwing out there, I'm not so sure on him being the Captain but I'm thinking he'd make an excellent one. He has been helpful to the town yes...but not taking a lot of risks either.

Once again, thanks for the vote of confidence... but not taking risks? What kind of risks would you like to see? I caught heat for going after Beth while everyone else just walked away.

At any rate, I'm still plugging through the thread...sometime later today/tonight I'll post a list of my thoughts on those still left in the game.

 

[Lady G]

Day One
Beth (6) by HN(87), HN(392), DD(414), Mal(416), Mad(477), Grins(490), LC(497)
LC (3) by Beth(524), JM(530), Blue(538)
mee-mee (2) by JL(457), Jp(481)
JM(2) by RB(508), Ice(603)
RB (1) by JL(80). LG(503)
JL (1) MeeMee (563)
JPap (1) Lupin(599)
HN (0) by Beth(90)
Mad (0) by LC(251)
Lupin (0) by ICE(399)
MG - RIP (0) by ICE (305), HN (387)

Day Two
RB (7) --- Ice(655), Grins(677), LadyG(703), Mal(876), DD(882), Blue(905), JP(941), Mee-mee(989)
JM (5) --- RB(786), HN(835), LC(872), Mad(883), Grins(975)
MM (1) --- JL(807)
LC (1) --- JM(841)
Bala (0) --- LC(705)
Ok, looking at this. We have DD and Mal, both voting innocents both nights. My question is though would a Pirate vote for an innocent on BOTH nights? One that was going to be lynched anyway. Everyone knows how much votes are looked into, and to be on an innocent is bad enough, but to be on two in a row...even worse, so I'm not sure they would.

 

[Lady G]

Ooops wanted to add to that, Jmax voted Lchap BOTH nights too, I can see for distancing purposes voting another pirate once, so when looked back at they could say but look I voted for a pirate, I can't be. So actually this eases my mind a little more toward Lchap.