Ok this is my case on Kash
Looking through D1 posts again still doesn't help me very much even with the knowledge that Jpappy was mafia. I'll have to go through it all again, I suppose, at some point today to see if there's something I'm missing. So far in this game, the main thing that stands out for me is how little really stands out at all. The thoughts I have still seem thin and I'm not sure they're even worth pursuing, but I'll share what I can just in case it helps get some ideas out here.
First, it was my expectation that the mafia would hit either Ice or Coler the first 2 nightfalls because of their experience/game style. So that presumption lead me to think whichever of the two avoids mafia hits on N1 and N2 would more likely be on the mafia team himself. The mafia isn't going to hit one of their own. Since Coler was hit and revealed as a citizen, it's seems more likely that Ice is mafia. Going back through the posts last night looking for clues along this line, however, I don't actually see anything from his posting that backs up a mafia suspicion.
The other supposition I have is generally anyone who doesn't vote is acting more out of self-preservation than in the best interests of the town. But the same is true for those who don't post (who are actually here) and those who post now and then but who don't actually say anything. As DD didn't vote, I'll watch her more closely now.
Hope I can find more to go on than this fairly soon. This is a real slow thing with so many people either not playing or holding back because they can.
been hit on Night 1 that if I survive Night 2 I must be mafia, though she sees nothing in my posts to lead her to believe I am.
No John, which is why I also made it clear I was falling back on general/default strategy ideas given a lack of anything more specific to go on in such a low-participation game. I've also pointed out already that I don't have any suspects yet.
Ice would have made an obvious suspect (for me) had I found something re-reading his posts last night that sounded scummy.
I'm glad to see that you're in the game now because you do participate and you're good at stirring things up. Now kindly let us know which side you're on...
....so we can decide what you're up to jumping in so hard and fast with definitive accusations and a vote already.
Going back to your previous post... Yes, you might as well give your reasons for missing the first day and the first vote. That's something we would ask of anyone else so you should answer that.
Again reiterates nothing in my posts are scummy
Here's my input this morning. I feel DD and Luv are both mafia. I also highly suspect FD being part of this but she still may be innocent... yet after reading FD's more recent posts, they fit in well having a connection to both DD and Luv. Reviewing the thread more has cleared Noodles, Ice, JL, and Rich in my mind. JM made a huge mistake calling for speculation about the Dr. which was really bad but may have been done out of inexperience, not realizing such a discussion would tip off the mafia as to who they'd want to hit next.
DD is not playing the same as she did when she was noncommunicating mafia or a noncommunicating wiseguy. This time, she was more active and connected in the game. When she is noncommunicating, she tends to float in and out more sporadically. I think she is communicating this time because her activity was a lot more connected/purposeful before she later had to defend herself for not voting.
In this game, DD has been posting more suspects and was quick to stir up interest over Luvbugz early on... which she failed to follow through on to vote Luvbugz for the lynch. I suspect Luv is her teammate and DD started that to distance them from each other while nothing else was going on yet, intending to switch off as soon as someone else flubbed up or a new suspicion developed elsewhere once the inactive players showed up. That just didn't happen through the first day.
I don't believe for a moment that DD decided not to vote out of indecision. The DD I've seen before would've played her best hunch to vote somewhere else, except she'd already committed herself to vote Luvbugz over anyone else. So she stayed out of the voting completely.
FD cast a late vote to save Luv by taking MC out instead. That was how they resolved the problem to save Luvbugz. FD voted MC with 5 minutes to spare with DD's vote held in reserve in case somebody switched from MC back to Luv. When nobody did, DD didn't vote for Luv (her #1 suspect) because that would've put Luv back in tied with MC with her fate decided by a coin toss. DD didn't vote Noodles or MC because she'd not built up a convincing case against them and it would've been obvious that she was only saving her teammate Luv.
As a vet, DD knew she'd end up taking flack over not voting but she also knows she can talk herself out of a tight spot fairly well. She tried to blow that off at first with her explanation to Ice... which isn't very solid at all. But Ice wasn't buying it... and that's when JL came into this. DD's now having to defend herself more intently. I just don't see it as being very convincing.
Jpappy (mafia) voted Noodles because he knew she wasn't on the scum team. He doesn't strike me as a vote switcher, hoping to distance himself with that vote. And I seriously doubt Ice would've followed Jpap's vote if both Jpap and Ice were mafia.
Again she says I'm cleared
I'm comfortable with my two leading suspects.. DD and Luvbugz. My vote could go either way between them, so I'll place the vote now...
I vote to lynch DangerDoll.
That gets this in for the day and I intend to vote Luvbugz tomorrow. (Or vice versa.) My reasons for both stated earlier this morning.
JM1212.. The only remaining question I have is this.... how many mafia games have you played before?
FireDancer was a question for me over her vote to save Luvbugz or not. With this question in mind, it's this post from her that's made that call for me. I've broken up FD's single post into multiple quotes to add comments between the paragraphs. Reading this with the notion these three are mafia teammates, I can see FD defending or being helpfully sympathetic toward both DD and Luvbugz while remaining carefully neutral about the others she names.
Here, FD defends DD:
Here, general comments. Then somewhat scolds JM but staying neutral about that too:
Here, defends Luvbugz again while explaining herself:
The rest is noncomittal... Mav, Ice, and JL:
Her case against Fire and somehow I went from clear to noncommital
Ice, everything I was counting on to be accurate and reasonable has just been proved wrong. Tonight has been a total disaster. And there's nothing I can do to change that. While I do all I can to read through everything looking for clues and evaluating strategy from every angle I can think of, there's obviously a lot going on that I miss. It's still easy enough for me to be mislead or for me to just misread things all by myself. But one thing is certain...
There is no way under the sun that ANY mafia team in this game would hit both Coler and then DirtyDawg while still leaving you active and alive to continue playing... UNLESS you had a chair at that mafia table.
JM.. I was on the communicating mafia team in both the two other games I've played before. So from the beginning, I had to learn how to look at this game from the mafia's viewpoint. I had the benefit of being able to learn a lot while working alongside vets who were extremely well skilled in this game.. primarily Madcrawdad (who played under an alias) and Coler.
I remember Blueiz noticed Ice was following the first game even though he didn't participate in that one. She made a comment back then how glad she was that we (mafia) didn't have to deal with him on the opposing side. Ice really is that good at this.
Then in the game that followed, Coler's very first suggestion to that mafia team was to make Ice our #1 hit. A decision that Coler playfully denied making later on.. lol. That's what the mafia needs to do with their hits is take out the players most likely to spoil their plans.
Coler made reference to that same likelihood himself on the first day in this game... and Ice has admitted as much himself, more than once. Neither of them expected to last very long before being hit by the mafia. Coler was innocent and, sure enough, he was hit the first night. If Ice was also innocent, there's just no way he'd still be here to see Day #3.
Day 3 starts and from her case against Fire she switches and votes me for not being hit. Also makes sure to tell everyone how good I am and how in another game my being hit was top priority.
I'll admit that I'm still rattled from what happened last night. And now having just read through a barrage of posts from Ice and JL that filled 5 full pages (wtf is with those two?)... good God, I can hardly think straight anymore after all that.
Anyway.. I'm still trying to sort it all out. So for now, this is where my impressions fall. I'll continue trying to reevaluate things as today goes on. If I notice something that changes, I'll point that out too.
Day 3 votes so far...Ice - Kashta
Fire - Ice
Luv - JM
Dopehand - JL
Main players...
IceH2O - Mafia without a doubt in my mind.
Johnlarson - Leaning mafia the way he steers the boat so capably, but so far in the wrong direction. Having doubts about so many others, I trusted in his logic/judgement way too much.... beware.
Ice and JL work extremely well with each other to influence the town while appearing to be very separate at the same time. Need to keep watching how well they continue doing this... as I'm not the only one who's noticed it or been influenced by their lead. We are being led in certain ways by both of them and it's worked out badly for the town this far.
Both Ice and JL planted a few lukewarm suspicions my way until they both saw I agreed with them about DD.. also Luv and FD. Then they both backed down and left me alone.... neither of them pursuing me again, until I first suggested Ice might be mafia IF the mafia doesn't take him out of the game. That got a strong reaction from both of them at the time and I've been "highly suspected" by them ever since.
Other comments...
rich311k - Leaning mafia but not sure. Rich has defended Luvbugz twice already since nightfall last night and raised JL's suspicion over Dopehand up a notch... right after Dope pointed at Luvbugz. If Luv is mafia, then she's got a real strong ally in Rich. Rich and JL are also closely aligned. Still need to decide whether that's good or bad.
Luvbugz - Very suspicious, but too flaky to pin her down. She acted a lot like that while innocent in the first game we played. Wasn't bouncing around like this in the next game when she was connected with the mafia team. Her meltdown in this game may be annoying, but it's also the best argument in her favor as not being scum this time around.
FireDancer - Suspicious, and overly certain of herself for someone who's not really playing. Ironically, it's Ice's vote against her now that's the best reason for not suspecting her. Keep an eye on what Ice does in this regard as this could be a passing thing to distance them. DirtyDawg did warn us that if DD turns out innocent... then Ice is most likely mafia. Not ready to lean innocent with FD yet but it's possible. Keep watching this.
Dopehand - very suspicious.. in and out like a flash but yet not playing.
jm1212 - Rookie player still who tries to cover his butt over Dr. question but handled it poorly. Would have benefited a lot from coaching at that time if he'd had that from a mafia team. Hard to believe the Mafia team would be stupid enough to send in one of their own to ask about the Dr. like that. Leaning innocent for the moment for that reason, but he bears watching to see what he does next.
noodles62 - Extremely vocal as always but quite neutral, likely innocent. I don't see anything off at all. She's just very good at this, so it isn't really safe to take her without a grain of salt. Still not getting a read either way.... wish I could tell. Would really be nice to know for sure.
maverickbr77 - So completely neutral.... it's enough to forget he's even here. Mav is extremely good at this as I remember now from the last game.. makes him a little less than innocent than he may appear to be.
The Red Severum - disinterested, most likely innocent again.... He doesn't bother getting into this since nothing involves him this time.
Agassizii - Who the hell knows or even cares at this point.. wait and see. Will get to him later.
Her list. Alot of suspicion but non commital though suspicions also lead to leaning innocent on most.
Puts me and JL as a team.
Also insinuates we are leading the town. As I stated before no one leads, if you can't take accountability for your own vote its your own fault for not doing your own research. No one tells anyone how to vote.
Also meant to add to my post above the point that mafia players don't take a direct route when going after townies they hope to lynch. What they do is more subtle than that.
For example... imagine now that I'm innocent and after sticking my neck out last night to vote Ice as mafia, see what has Ice done in response? I expected Ice to tear me to pieces after putting myself at risk like that (when I could've kept a low profile instead), but he didn't. Aside from merely including my name on his list of mafia suspects (thus far), Ice spent a good amount of time last night ignoring me and virtually all the other active players in the game. I can see why Ice didn't come after me directly.. why would he do that? It wouldn't make sense. But what he's doing now doesn't make any sense either.
Since last night, Ice has directed his focus exclusively on people who are are much less involved in the game. Surely there's ONE prominent player left who's on the mafia side. We know the role assignments made were done randomly. Are we really expected to believe the mafia's efforts are being orchestrated largely by no-shows, beginners, and a few who don't have time to post much? I'm very sure there's someone else out there who's active and scummy that Ice is deliberately overlooking. If we can figure out who that is... there's a great target for our next lynching.
If I am right about Ice now and he is on the mafia team... then there are a few other things to watch for as this day unfolds. I'm saying all this now because I know it's very likely that I'm on my way out. What I've done has probably caused some trouble with the mafia's game plan... (if Ice is mafia). So look very closely at who comes after me hard... instead of Ice himself. Ice isn't going to do this himself, but you can be sure that someone else associated with him on the mafia team will. Wait to see who that turns out to be and then look for a connection between them.
Also pay attention after nightfall tonight to who does NOT get hit by the mafia. And ask yourselves why.
Again pointing fingers at me. Why does JL not get the finger for the same reason? Its post like that which make me untrusting of JL right now.
I've been through the thread which seems mostly chatter.. along with JL tutoring Luvbugz on her reading comprehension. Wish there was a way to pull out only posts in this thread that haven't already been quoted upteen times... would save some time catching up in between all the repeats for clarification.
Ice - Mafia, certain.
JohnLarson - Uncertain but wary.
Rich - Leaning mafia. Ice's glancing vote which has already been switched away was a nice touch, Ice.
Noodles - Too quiet for too long at a time.
Kashta - Too quiet for too long at a time. Oh wait.. nvm, scratch that.
Maverick - Leaning mafia.
Luvbugz - Tempted to switch my vote from Ice to Luv just to watch her come unglued again... lmao.
FireDancer - Would be nice to find out about possible protection on Luv (twice) if she gets lynched tonight.
TRS - Dude, you predicting me innocent is almost enough to make me vote myself mafia.
Dopehand and JM - Hopelessly lost but funny to read.
Agassizii - Mostly a no-show.. nothing to go on.
Think that's everyone. All the above subject to change once we learn what nightfall will bring. For the time being, I've not seen anything posted that's changed my impressions for today.
Another list. We already know that Mav who she states is mafia is innocent. That Fire will tell us what Luv is. Fire showed mafia Kash, so why isn't Luv any longer a target?
Rich, I'll address this to you because you're the one asking. I am the best target now. I drew so much suspicion because I went after Ice. And that put me in the middle of things along with JL and Ice. It's impossible for us tell whether to believe JL or Ice at this point because they're both too good and they've both been the most influential players we have. With all three of us still in the game, the town is going to keep going back and forth trying to figure out who they can listen to. But the odds that JL and Ice are BOTH mafia is extremely low. The only way the town will be able to choose between them now is if I'm gone.
Since Fire turned out to be mafia, we can afford to lose another innocent without it costing us as much. So take me out with the next lynch. My role will be revealed then as innocent then, but it won't matter as long as you make sure you also lynch either JL or Ice the very next night. (It doesn't matter which one you pick between JL or Ice, the town could flip a coin on that call.)
JM protected himself until he comes back to help us. I'll be gone from the lynch.... Noodles will get hit now... and either JL or Ice will also be gone. That leaves either JL or Ice (whichever survived) still to help you unravel this with JM still able to protect.
I don't get how if you turn up innocent that it determines JL or I are mafia. What if the town chooses the wrong one or we're both innocent? How does that help?
Never liked this ploy. Why sacrifice yourself. Why not vote for who you think is mafia. There are other players besides me you and JL. Isn't Luv a suspect? What about Dopey? Think you even have Rich as one. Why lay down when you could still help the town?
Giving up or a ploy to get sympathy. By the logic you used, people could just lynch either JL or Ice and find out the same thing. Sacrificing yourself for the team?
Rich calls her on it.
I'll just keep going...
I can't decide whether to believe JL or not... but neither can the rest of the town. I don't trust Ice at all because I think he's mafia. But I might be wrong about that. So:
If Ice is mafia, it's safe for him to vote me now because he knows I'm innocent but enough of the town in general suspects me that I'll get lynched anyway.
If Ice is innocent, then he'd still vote me now because he's convinced I must be mafia and I was playing around to set him up.
So I'm either innocent or mafia. Gotcha!
My vote stays on Kash. Still haven't determined who might be a partner.
I don't like that JL pulled off of her though.
