Mafia #53.5 Rock the Vote

[OgreMkV]

On second thought, while I think Rocker is scummy. I think the wycco situation yesterday shows us that we should continue to search other leads. I'm not comfortable with the fact that Ice voted for wycco early, it suggests to me that the detective may not have had any useful leads at the time.

For this reason

I retract my vote for Rocker and vote to lynch Dawg

He voted to lynch Kash on day 1, Didn't vote to lynch Luvbugz on day 2, despite telling me "a blind man" could see the train on her. And he voted to lynch wycco yesterday. That's 3 for 3.

Hopefully this can spur some conversation and we can get a better idea. This vote is by no means permanent.

I disagree with your judgment of Ice's actions. There are at least two possible reasons that make sense:

1) He didn't get the info form the Det early on (probably due to RL stuff)
2) He thought that going on someone else first thing would be perceived as mafia (which it was, until he was killed). it was his best attempt to convince some of us.

 

[FireDancer7905]

But what if Ice didn't know either role for certain, and was acting solely on gut? Wycco, while slightly irritating, seemed pretty innocent to me, too. What if he switched to keep off the train, but didn't have any actual info, other than Rocker's posts seemed scummy. We don't know who the det investigated at all, so guessing is kind of counterproductive. If we focus on that, we are missing time that coud be devoted to fleshing out the rest of the mafia. It's just hard, because there are too many players who aren't really playing. We keep going round and round on the same players, because they are the only ones here. I think we have a sleeping mafia team, doing just enough to keep alive, but not much more. We seem to be doing their work for them pretty well.

 

[noodles62]

Just got back.....while Dawg has fooled me before I am not ready to get on that train. The train on him is players that I do not know that I can trust, including one (rocker) that Wycco was convinced was scum and one a known Cop voted for. FD and RB have really not given any reasons, just voted. I do not wish to be led around by the nose and follow along quietly without valid reeason. Also the fact that Dawg is out of town and not here to defend himself and then all of a sudden there is train forming on him, just seems a bit scummy and suspicious...

I feel better following Ice's lead and voting Rocker. My vote will stay on Rocker for now until I see a better reason to change.
It would be nice if more players were around and posting.....

 

[FireDancer7905]

Just got back.....while Dawg has fooled me before I am not ready to get on that train. The train on him is players that I do not know that I can trust, including one (rocker) that Wycco was convinced was scum and one a known Cop voted for. FD and RB have really not given any reasons, just voted. I do not wish to be led around by the nose and follow along quietly without valid reeason. Also the fact that Dawg is out of town and not here to defend himself and then all of a sudden there is train forming on him, just seems a bit scummy and suspicious...

I feel better following Ice's lead and voting Rocker. My vote will stay on Rocker for now until I see a better reason to change.
It would be nice if more players were around and posting.....

I actually did give a reason for voting Dawg, before I switched my vote last night to Rocker (where it wouldn't be wasted). I think it's a solid vote, and it will not change based on any defense he thinks up.

 

[Zaffy]

... I think we have a sleeping mafia team, doing just enough to keep alive, but not much more. We seem to be doing their work for them pretty well.
...

I'm inclined to agree with this statement about mafia hanging back and letting us do their work for them. So I went back and checked vote counts.

Lady G (5), The Red Severum(8), cjtabares(1), Luckydud13(2), Agassizii(1), RBishop(11), and AnniesNotOk(10) are the ones who show the least activity.

I also found that I need to adjust my math.

If we look at the numbers.

We started with 32 players, 14 have died so far leaving 18 living players. Of those, we know for sure 2 were mafia (possibly more thanks for JL's ambiguous wording). I'm going to assume the worst case scenario of only 2 mafia players being dead.

The number 8 has been thrown around as a likely number of mafia to start the game. 25% of 32 = 8.

8-2=6 This leaves us with potentially 6 mafia players remaining. If 6 of 18 are mafia, then the remaining players must be innocent or police. 18-6=12.

For the mafia to win, the innocent population at this time must go below 5. 12-5=7, This means that 7 innocent/cops must die before any mafia do for the quickest possible win for the mafia.

Right now, I see 2 players who risk UD, assuming the worst case scenario we could lose 4 innocents tonight. That would make the standings 6:8.

The next night we could lose another 2, (I'm not assuming any UD at this point). that would make it 6:6.

The next night could be the final night if we again lost 2 innocents. 6:4 (if we kill a mafia it will be 5:5 and we earned another night)

So, by my calculations, in the worst case we can be 3 nights from a loss. 6 nights from a win.

I found 4 players who risk UD, so we could lose 6 tonight in a worst case scenario, Making the standing 6:6.

The next night could be the last night if 2 more innocents are killed.

There is no room for error at this point.

 

[FireDancer7905]

I'm inclined to agree with this statement about mafia hanging back and letting us do their work for them. So I went back and checked vote counts.

Lady G (5), The Red Severum(8), cjtabares(1), Luckydud13(2), Agassizii(1), RBishop(11), and AnniesNotOk(10) are the ones who show the least activity.

While I don't necessarily agree with it being vote counts (did you mean post?) that are the sleepers, I do need to express my shock at not being on that list. Other vets have to agree that it's impressive for me not to be the lowest poster in a game!

 

[FireDancer7905]

I found 4 players who risk UD, so we could lose 6 tonight in a worst case scenario, Making the standing 6:6.

The next night could be the last night if 2 more innocents are killed.

There is no room for error at this point.

So let's lynch Dawg.

 

[Zaffy]

While I don't necessarily agree with it being vote counts (did you mean post?) that are the sleepers, I do need to express my shock at not being on that list. Other vets have to agree that it's impressive for me not to be the lowest poster in a game!

Yes, I meant posts. You had 37, well within a standard deviation of the mean.

 

[Zaffy]

I think this is a FANTASTIC idea! I got all goosebumpy when I saw the night's poopy events, and think that there's definitely much to be learned from what the Det. has learned.

For now, I'm sticking to my gut and going back to my hypothetical situation (seems I was at least 1/2 right, and I'm going to bet the farm completely correct) because I can't justify any other vote.

I vote to lynch Dawg.

So let's lynch Dawg.

Hmm, yes indeed. lets.

Do you have anything more than your "gut" to go on? I proposed some reasoning for my vote against him.

 

[mostlycichlids]

Just checking in...I have a barbecue tonight so wont be around...zaffy I am kinda liking your logic and insight today....FD I still don't know about you though it seems like you and zaffy are communicating but just not sure what side yet.