Mafia #53.5 Rock the Vote

I retract my vote for Jpappy and vote to lynch Rocker. I posted my vote for JP in haste and frustration last night and he was at the top of my list if Wycco came up innocent. However knowing now that Ice was a COP and he switched off of Wycco, a now known innocent, to Rocker makes me think he must have known something......I hope!

I am really worried about that fact that we have lost 6 innocents to UD and we have not been told their role. If any were Cops or the detective we are in big trouble.....
I agree that it would be helpful for the detective to come out but there is no way of knowing if they are truthful......

More later - I need my coffee.
 
one more thing - I keep thinking about how Wycco was convinced that between rocker and zaffy, rocker was the innocent one. however Wycco was non communication so how would he have known for sure.......
 
noodles62 said:
I retract my vote for Jpappy and vote to lynch Rocker. I posted my vote for JP in haste and frustration last night and he was at the top of my list if Wycco came up innocent. However knowing now that Ice was a COP and he switched off of Wycco, a now known innocent, to Rocker makes me think he must have known something......I hope!

I am really worried about that fact that we have lost 6 innocents to UD and we have not been told their role. If any were Cops or the detective we are in big trouble.....
I agree that it would be helpful for the detective to come out but there is no way of knowing if they are truthful......

More later - I need my coffee.
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after reviewing my notes some more, maybe we have not lost as many innocents to UD as I thought. We have lost seven players total to UD thus far. JL said "at least 1 was mafia" on night two - perhaps we got lucky and there were 2 or 3? Odds are that there were approx 8 mafia at the start of the game (as stated earlier by somebody) and we know all UDs last night were innocent, hhhmmmm, just thinking out loud and trying to calm my nerves about all the UDs.

**John/Bala, you told us all the UD were innocents last night, how come you didn't tell us who was what on the night prior??

Losing Ice, a Cop has thrown me for a loop. I am gonna have to go back and read everything again. I have a feeling I am overlooking something that is probably right in front of my face. I was so certain about Luv (thank goodness) and Wycco (obviously wrong) that I let myself be focused on them and not enough attention on others.....

Now I really need my coffee. I have foggy morning after beer brain! :coffee:
 
wow..... a hard blow to lose Ice...

but he did one thing for us before he left, he voted for Rocker.... and that's what I'm doing...

I vote to lynch Rocker and subject to change in case I come back from work and find that the plan worked. I guess I am on the fence with the plan though, I am not so sue if it's such a great idea to out a cop just to get a mafia... especially not knowing how many cops there are in the game. What if we can't afford to lose him?. I mean in one hand, yeah, we can get a mafia.... but on the other, we might have much more to lose... I don't know, I just guess I never liked the whole "coming out" of anyone. Maybe whoever the cops are, should help us along and be more vocal and find proof for people who are innocent and present it to us so we can see it..... you know, do a public service for us.
now, I am off to go finish a website at work...
 
jpappy789 said:
forgot that I'm still suspicious of MC and Rb...both named Wycco but moved to rocker for no real reasons. Makes me wonder if they knew something...
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You a funny guy, jpappy....


I know you are innocent.....it shows in all your posts.......

And because it does......


I vote to lynch Dawg....
 
I vote to lynch Rocker

Ice originally voted for wycco, but retracted. So I'll guess the detective didn't know wycco's role for sure. He switched to TRS, and then again to rocker when it was evident that rocker may have a shot to be lynched. I'm going on the assumption that Ice knew something the rest of us don't.
 
If we look at the numbers.

We started with 32 players, 14 have died so far leaving 18 living players. Of those, we know for sure 2 were mafia (possibly more thanks for JL's ambiguous wording). I'm going to assume the worst case scenario of only 2 mafia players being dead.

The number 8 has been thrown around as a likely number of mafia to start the game. 25% of 32 = 8.

8-2=6 This leaves us with potentially 6 mafia players remaining. If 6 of 18 are mafia, then the remaining players must be innocent or police. 18-6=12.

For the mafia to win, the innocent population at this time must go below 5. 12-5=7, This means that 7 innocent/cops must die before any mafia do for the quickest possible win for the mafia.

Right now, I see 2 players who risk UD, assuming the worst case scenario we could lose 4 innocents tonight. That would make the standings 6:8.

The next night we could lose another 2, (I'm not assuming any UD at this point). that would make it 6:6.

The next night could be the final night if we again lost 2 innocents. 6:4 (if we kill a mafia it will be 5:5 and we earned another night)

So, by my calculations, in the worst case we can be 3 nights from a loss. 6 nights from a win.
 
Zaffy said:
If we look at the numbers.

We started with 32 players, 14 have died so far leaving 18 living players. Of those, we know for sure 2 were mafia (possibly more thanks for JL's ambiguous wording). I'm going to assume the worst case scenario of only 2 mafia players being dead.

The number 8 has been thrown around as a likely number of mafia to start the game. 25% of 32 = 8.

8-2=6 This leaves us with potentially 6 mafia players remaining. If 6 of 18 are mafia, then the remaining players must be innocent or police. 18-6=12.

For the mafia to win, the innocent population at this time must go below 5. 12-5=7, This means that 7 innocent/cops must die before any mafia do for the quickest possible win for the mafia.

Right now, I see 2 players who risk UD, assuming the worst case scenario we could lose 4 innocents tonight. That would make the standings 6:8.

The next night we could lose another 2, (I'm not assuming any UD at this point). that would make it 6:6.

The next night could be the final night if we again lost 2 innocents. 6:4 (if we kill a mafia it will be 5:5 and we earned another night)

So, by my calculations, in the worst case we can be 3 nights from a loss. 6 nights from a win.
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Should read, to 5.
 
Zaffy said:
I vote to lynch Rocker

Ice originally voted for wycco, but retracted. So I'll guess the detective didn't know wycco's role for sure. He switched to TRS, and then again to rocker when it was evident that rocker may have a shot to be lynched. I'm going on the assumption that Ice knew something the rest of us don't.
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On second thought, while I think Rocker is scummy. I think the wycco situation yesterday shows us that we should continue to search other leads. I'm not comfortable with the fact that Ice voted for wycco early, it suggests to me that the detective may not have had any useful leads at the time.

For this reason

I retract my vote for Rocker and vote to lynch Dawg

He voted to lynch Kash on day 1, Didn't vote to lynch Luvbugz on day 2, despite telling me "a blind man" could see the train on her. And he voted to lynch wycco yesterday. That's 3 for 3.

Hopefully this can spur some conversation and we can get a better idea. This vote is by no means permanent.
 
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