Mafia 54:Vampires Return (The Play)

[paperdragon]

Paper... huh?

So are you one of John's teammates? I can understand being new and not wanting to vote your teammate, but at this point, do you think you'll change other's minds?

Hardly. I just don't trust wycco, but I'm not sure enough that he's a vamp to go after him again.

Paper, I somewhat agree that this all feels really odd, but I think we have to take Wycco's info at face value for tonight at least. We still have numbers and although I would hate to stake a Villager if this is a setup, the chance of staking one of the Vamps far outweighs the Cons. I do think there is a good chance JL could be the Day 1 Turn although I personally would have chosen someone less high profile. Your vote on Dawg is a throwaway vote. If you do not want to jump on the JL train you should vote for Kash who is JL's lynch candidate. Any other votes look like you do not want to be involved in tonights lynch which is scummy IMO with such a good chance at hitting a Vamp for two nights in a row. The Village needs this badly.

I don't care if everyone else thinks not doing something someone I don't trust tells me to just because everyone else is going along is scummy or not. I've got a stubborn streak three times the size of Texas, and I'm not going to be bullied even if it gets me staked. I'm not going against the town, but I'm not taking everything I read at face value either.

 

[ZSandmann]

My suspect list is a bit in shambles, I need to go back to the beginning and reread everything, perhaps I can do that tonight.

But my top three remain Rich, Zaffy, and Rocker in no particular order.

Last game I was scarey accurate based just on gut, but I mixed some PRs with my Mafia. Based on Pappy being validated, even though my vote wasn't on him at night, I feel good about these pics. I want to be able to provide more than just an impression though as I realize that isn't enough on its own.

 

[Coler]

Hardly. I just don't trust wycco, but I'm not sure enough that he's a vamp to go after him again.



I don't care if everyone else thinks not doing something someone I don't trust tells me to just because everyone else is going along is scummy or not. I've got a stubborn streak three times the size of Texas, and I'm not going to be bullied even if it gets me staked. I'm not going against the town, but I'm not taking everything I read at face value either.

This is utter nonsense paperdragon. You can't at this particular point in time just not trust wycco but not be sure enough that he's a vamp. If he is not the seer, or the person in receipt of the D4 list, he must be a vampire. The only real choice for the townspeople is whether to lynch JL or lynch Wycco - yes it is simple as that.

This post elevates paperdragon right to the top of my suspect list for tomorrow.

 

[johnlarson66]

Its the absence of any serious campaign against Wycco that sways me (aside from that mounted by JL of course). If he's lying, two people know for an absolute fact that he is lying. Yet there has been no effort to contradict his claim. Its actually fairly basic that we have to go with him tonight in the absence of this.

No one knows for sure I am innocent, unless I was investigated by the seer. Which I could have been, but I would have come up innocent.

I can only assume that wycco is the seer and has been turned. I don't think he is the LV.

If I had teamates, I think one of them would atleast be voting kash, but everyone is afraid that I might be a vampire. Maybe paper got the list. Someone got the list.

I can't believe I am getting out gamed by a noob. I can only assume they have no problem losing wycco.

Tomorrow everyone will be after wycco, but there will still be atleast 2 other vampires (maybe a turn). I am not sure how the math works out, but they must have thought it was now or never.

 

[ZSandmann]

I thought it was Ogre that introduced the WIFOM logic.

I think it was Madcrawdad.

Hardly. I just don't trust wycco, but I'm not sure enough that he's a vamp to go after him again.



I don't care if everyone else thinks not doing something someone I don't trust tells me to just because everyone else is going along is scummy or not. I've got a stubborn streak three times the size of Texas, and I'm not going to be bullied even if it gets me staked. I'm not going against the town, but I'm not taking everything I read at face value either.

It is anti-Village. Whether you want to believe it or not. Doesn't mean you are a Vamp, just stubborn as you yourself suggest. A Power Role has been claimed, in those circumstances you step out from your comfort zone a bit and choose a side. Wycco is the Seer or he isn't. Wycco is a Vamp or he isn't. Choose which you believe and lay your vote there.

Dawg will not be lynched tonight, unless something crazy happens in a short period of time. So your vote is wasted and non-commital.

 

[johnlarson66]

Sorry John but if you are hinting at a town power role here you'd be best to come out properly. If you are the person who got the list you are in no real extra danger to any given townie (well, perhaps some). If you are the seer of course you would be exposed but it seems unavoidable that we are going to lynch you anyway.

I am not a power role nor did I get the list.

 

[johnlarson66]

I am saying that wycco is the seer and has been turned.

 

[johnlarson66]

Its the absence of any serious campaign against Wycco that sways me (aside from that mounted by JL of course). If he's lying, two people know for an absolute fact that he is lying. Yet there has been no effort to contradict his claim. Its actually fairly basic that we have to go with him tonight in the absence of this.

Why would anyone doubt wycco as being the seer?

But if I was investigated on day one and came up vampire then why no votes? I was all over kash and people were already saying I was playing different. I was an easy target.

I am sure wycco investigated me and knows that I am innocent. He has been turned and is willing to die the next day as a way to get me lynched today. I must have been on to something.

 

[paperdragon]

Heh, think what you guys want. Only reason I'm sticking around is out of fairness, I lost interest on the first day. You wanna lynch me, go ahead.

 

[Coler]

Final Vote tally

Rich-6- Wycco,Jpap,Zaffy,Zsand,Coler,Kash

Zaffy-1- Lani

Jpap-6- Ogre,JL,RB,Jm,Rocker,Annie

Coler-1- Paper

RB-2- Dawg,Rich

Final D2 vote tally.

With jpappy a vampire we have to proceed on one of three possibilities :

a) vampire team in disarray. Poor communication/participation leaves pappy left in a tie which they could have broken by coming onto rich from anywhere.
b) riich is innocent, vampire team not in disarray but have no spare vote to save pappy. This means all vampire votes are on rich at nightfall.
c) jpappy is not able to play on and is offered up as sacrificial lynch by his vampire buddies. They would have been pretty hacked off that he ended up in a tie actually if this was so. This puts all vampire suspects on jpappy and would make rich innocent.
Possibility a) I discount as being the least likely.

In a vacuum Suspect list possibility b) is Wycco,Jpap,Zaffy,Zsand,Coler,Kash

In a vacuum, Suspect list possibility c) is Ogre,JL,RB,Jm,Rocker,Annie

Fourth remote possibility - jpappy & rich are both vampires but any switch by a vampire would still result in one or other getting lynched. Somewhat useless to try and generate suspects from the N3 votes if this is so. This would require really awful play by the vampire team. I somewhat discount the possibility.

The real relevance of the fourth remote possibility is that it is conclusive proof that by close of last nightfall neither jpappy or rich are the lead vampire as we know jpappy was not, and we also know they would never leave the LV in the tie (and rich could have taken himself out the tie easily).

Both of possibility b) and c) are based on Rich being innocent. Now I need to consider which of possibility b) and c) I consider to be more likely to have been the case which might help me in working out the next couple of vampires. Factoring out a) and the fourth possibility, the logic indicates that all three are either on one list or the other.

Of list b) I exclude Wycco (uncontradicted claim of seer) ,Jpap (dead vampire) and myself (obviously) ,Zaffy,Zsand,Kash. That would mean the other three are Zaffy, ZS and Kash.

Of list c)I exclude RB (dead innocent) and that means the other three are amongst Ogre, JL, Jm, Rocker and Annie.

List b) seems more plausible to me as being based on the generally more likely basis of the vampires trying to lynch an innocent. However the names on List c) are more attractive as suspects.

Thoughts anyone ?