mafia 63- Who is Who

[jpappy789]

You think it is a pointless assumption that Ice tweaked the roles? There is no way I believe that. Are you nervous that you are on my list of 6 players?

I am not sure if I presented a plan, more like I told the town what I was thinking and put my ideas out there. Odd that you are piggy backing on JB, you usually have some orginal thought. You really think there is going to be s "scummiest person" on day one when at most there are two teams of two communicating outside the thread, with one of them being innocent? The ones that look scummy could very easily be for the town. I think you said yourself that the mayor might want to lurk to play it safe (which by many is considered scummy).

I also disagree with anything presented in the game as being useless. Even you calling it useless is very telling.

Are you Ice? No. I've hand picked roles, and I've done it completely random so based on that I don't assume anything about what the mod may or may not have done and just play the game as is.

What JB said is nothing new...vote for the scummiest person. It's the staple strategy of the game. I just referenced what he said to make a point.

Yep, there's usually something scummy day one that's good enough for me to vote because of...I'm not usually right but neither is the rest of the town so I don't hold it against myself. As for the mayor, I'm not voting based on lurking and I'm not going to speak for other people's votes. I already voiced my opinion on that strategy but if people want to still vote that way I can't change that.

You seem to want to win this game right away...I understand that but you're trying to go against the odds we are given. A 50/50 shot is a 50/50 shot which is a heck of a lot better than picking one name off a list each night on the assumption that Ice hand picked them to be the mafia don.

 

[Lab_Rat]

I wonder if these discussions we have about the mods and picking roles has ever been all that fruitful. With 12 players at the start and few roles to fill I do not see how we could gain anything useful from it. Three nightfalls from now that could be a whole other ball of wax.

I would agree that Ice would give the roles to players he thought would keep the game going and are skilled at not getting lynched. I could see him pulling say 8 players from the pool and picking from those.

I agree with this. I also agree the pool is way too big right now to try and focus on who is don without more to go on.

 

[johnlarson66]

I wonder if these discussions we have about the mods and picking roles has ever been all that fruitful. With 12 players at the start and few roles to fill I do not see how we could gain anything useful from it. Three nightfalls from now that could be a whole other ball of wax.

I would agree that Ice would give the roles to players he thought would keep the game going and are skilled at not getting lynched. I could see him pulling say 8 players from the pool and picking from those.

Rich, there are 16 players at the start.

So you disagree with the discussions of Ice tweaking the roles or agree with it?

Do you find it hard talking out of both sides of your mouth?

 

[rich311k]

Rich, there are 16 players at the start.

So you disagree with the discussions of Ice tweaking the roles or agree with it?

Do you find it hard talking out of both sides of your mouth?

I think it is not going to come up to anything worthwhile right now. As there are too many players to narrow down to any useful number.

Sorry I got the number of players wrong. I did not go back and look 12 I thought was the number.

I said it could prove useful in a few nightfalls just not right now.

Then I added my two sense on the discussion since we are having it.

I really thought you could read with out me having to retype the whole thing again.

 

[Fishfriend1]

as far as ive seen it there is a 6/16 chance of hitting the mafia if we just vote randomly a 2/16 chance of hitting a boss and 1/16 chance of hitting the mafia don. Not very good odds if i say so myself.

 

[Lab_Rat]

as far as ive seen it there is a 6/16 chance of hitting the mafia if we just vote randomly a 2/16 chance of hitting a boss and 1/16 chance of hitting the mafia don. Not very good odds if i say so myself.

50/50 split it's an 8/16 chance to hit mafia, 1/8 to hit a boss, 1/16 to hit mafia don.

 

[Lab_Rat]

50/50 split it's an 8/16 chance to hit mafia, 1/8 to hit a boss, 1/16 to hit mafia don.

Or, if you prefer the reduced fraction, 1/2 chance to hit mafia. Those are darn good chances for day 1, much better than most games on day 1 to lynch scum.

 

[rich311k]

50/50 split it's an 8/16 chance to hit mafia, 1/8 to hit a boss, 1/16 to hit mafia don.

For each individual then when you combine all the votes and possible combinations, the odds get all muddled up. One of the reasons I never used my math degree.

 

[Lab_Rat]

For each individual then when you combine all the votes and possible combinations, the odds get all muddled up. One of the reasons I never used my math degree.

How is that muddled? For a random vote, we have a 50% chance to hit mafia scum. We have a 12.5% chance to hit either mafia don OR mayor with a random vote. We have 6.25% chance to hit the mafia don with a random vote.

 

[jbradt]

For each individual then when you combine all the votes and possible combinations, the odds get all muddled up. One of the reasons I never used my math degree.

I have to say, Rich; you've caught my attention. You add to a conversation you deem worthless, you've skimmed to the point where you don't even know how many peeps are playing, then you put this in there... I don't see how the odds change no matter who votes for who...

That works for me for night 1. I retract my vote on Jpappy and vote to lynch Rich.