mafia 63- Who is Who

hey john i just noticed your avatar its really cool.
 
rich311k said:
You have to combine the 16 votes in order to get the final odds of a player being lynched. The results of one individual player alone is not the odds of the final out come. I know it is not that hard a concept, you guys will twist anything. Now take a deep breath and think about it. No where in that statement did I say the individual odds of a vote were wrong.

As for getting the number of players wrong, I made a mistake go ahead and shoot me if you want. I did not know I was dealing with such perfection.
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It's not about perfection, Rich. But you said yourself (at least I think it was you, I have to go so I can't go back to make sure...) it's hard to come up with anything useful on day 1. This is just what sticks out to me the most. I could have left my vote on Jpap, but I feel that atm you are giving me more anxiety. If I'm wrong... it won't be the first time.
 
whats that supposed to mean?
 
Fishfriend1 said:
:silly:
u need to take out the bosses. 1/2 chance of hitting the other team 1/16 chance of winning, 1/16 chance of losing, a 7/14 chance of hitting other team 7/14 chance of hitting a team member, 2/16 chance of hitting hitman/police guy, 4/16 chance of hitting boss or hitman for other team.


I hope thats right i did the math.:mad:
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You may want to try again, chance of hitting the other team (whether you're scum or town) is 8/16=1/2=50%. A 50/50 split. 14 as a denominator has no place in any of the calculations, not sure why you'd exclude either boss as part of a team.


rich311k said:
You have to combine the 16 votes in order to get the final odds of a player being lynched. The results of one individual player alone is not the odds of the final out come. I know it is not that hard a concept, you guys will twist anything. Now take a deep breath and think about it. No where in that statement did I say the individual odds of a vote were wrong.

As for getting the number of players wrong, I made a mistake go ahead and shoot me if you want. I did not know I was dealing with such perfection.
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My simple calculations are if we as a town were to unanimously vote to lynch one person. There is no need to calculate multiple votes, etc, as you note there are many outcomes. For illustrative purposes of the validity of randomly selecting a player to lynch this round I used the simple odds. To me, they hold water.

Rich, I tend to think you're scummy when you're really innocent so I will refrain from voting for you now. I do agree with others that what you've said seems scummy but I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt.
 
Lab_Rat said:
You may want to try again, chance of hitting the other team (whether you're scum or town) is 8/16=1/2=50%. A 50/50 split. 14 as a denominator has no place in any of the calculations, not sure why you'd exclude either boss as part of a team.




My simple calculations are if we as a town were to unanimously vote to lynch one person. There is no need to calculate multiple votes, etc, as you note there are many outcomes. For illustrative purposes of the validity of randomly selecting a player to lynch this round I used the simple odds. To me, they hold water.

Rich, I tend to think you're scummy when you're really innocent so I will refrain from voting for you now. I do agree with others that what you've said seems scummy but I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt.
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I would agree with that but at least one vote would have to be elsewhere so the odds are not perfect. Could you imagine a unanimous vote on day 1.
 
FF1, it looks like you are just following JB.

Besides having a vote that counts, what are YOUR reasons for voting?
 
hmmm i am a better follower then a leader for now anyway. I want my vote to count and i will follow those i think know what there doing.
 
Question for Lab Rat. I'd like to know what you were going for yesterday in one of your posts.

Fishfriend bounced around a lot yesterday, drew attention on himself, even picked up two votes (Jpappy and Lab Rat). That, followed by some discussion whether we should vote a noob.. and so on. Then it seemed Fish felt that JB was sticking up for him and he posted this.

Fishfriend1 said:
yay someone is on my side lol.
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To that, you replied with this.

Lab_Rat said:
Again, this is odd. No one should really be on anyone's "side" at this point in the game. Are you and JB communicating?

I could totally go for the OMGUS vote for Rbishop...worked for me last game when my OMGUS helped me pick out 2/3 mafia (sorry Dawg, you don't get my fish cuz I won the bet :raspberry: ).
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Looking back through your posts yesterday, Lab... each one prior to this was you being funny.. or general fluff. This was your first post so far (IMO) where you added a little bite to it. However, something seems odd to me about that situation and this particular post. What caught my attention was the way you followed the first line with a fairly abrupt reversal, when you added:

"Are you and JB communicating?"

What were you hoping to accomplish at the time by doing this? If JB and FF were communicating, even a noob won't tell you. You know that.. so did Fish. And when you asked this, you didn't believe it was actually true.. did you?

All I've been able to make from this was you seeming to help a noob gain some perspective on one hand -- only to turn that around to thump him on the forehead instead. While we may use such tactics to gauge a person's reaction, there is also some reason in mind at that time for doing so. That's the part in this case that I don't get. What reason did you have that prompted you to do this then with Fish?
 
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