OK...so on the D2 votes, Noods voted Wiz where she could have made it 5-4 (best I can reckon) and hoped for odin to vote and get her into a coin toss.
All I note is the strong inclination to have a coin toss/tied vote. That said...Noods being scum...it seems that this may not have been their strategy.
I still don't like the bit I bolded.
Vote count for context...we have 1 known scum left to vote, and we have odin who UD'd unknown status. Lets take Odin as innocent in the first instance. That means all of the scum votes are now placed except noodles. That means for me the following :-
- if scum are trying to save noodles at this point (and why wouldn't they - having made lots of comments that they would happily lynch her the next day, and also she is far from a dead duck at this point in the vote), then they are either on me or the Wizard.
- If Noodles had come in and voted for me, I suspect their would have been a very quick move of votes off me and onto her bearing in mind everyone innocent thinks she's scum. This would also have exposed the people attacking me.
If Odin was scum they had more leeway with two votes to place but the same problem for them arises - saving Noodles hammers everyone who supported her. On the basis that Odin ultimately didn't vote I tend to have him as innocent btw.
Highlighted to compare to the next quote.
Guess what she did. Its interesting is all. I kind of think she would have announced this in the scum den before doing it. That said, if this is a slip by FF I suppose its inconsistent with me thinking they are still trying to save Noodles as FF is voting for her at this point.
I have to have Rich as pro-town for this switch as this is the point I was making - the need to lynch Noods.
The only side a coin toss would benefit is the RR. However, FF has not moved their vote from noods to me, which they could easily have done, and done so legitimately in order to follow the coin-toss strategy, which even some innocent townies were not completely against/were supporting.
Hmmmm...don't think so...
So now noodles can at best get into a coin toss if Odin votes for me as well. I have Wiz, Annie, Rich as leaning innocent. I know I'm innocent. I really don't see the Noods voters as being scum. Note that if FF was a vote controlled by scum, they could switch to me, Noodles votes for me, and that wins the lynch. I do think they were still inclined to save Noodles if possible even at this stage.
Bizarre ?...voting for me however in a vote they couldn't win without a swap would probably lean me more innocent (an innocent townie could legitimately swap onto to and tie it up and/or two of them could vote me and I would lose the vote, i.e. if I was scum they would likely not take the risk of voting me and losing me. If I am innocent they would prefer to line me up for D3 lynch than make me look more innocent, in a vote which would require a gap of 2 to be made up to even tie. Again, it says to me that at this point in time their votes were placed, and not placed on Noodles.
Same as dawg says above. I don't agree at all.
My current theory...the votes on Noods were town votes. That gives me a primary suspect list of Dawg, Lab, & Dag. As per my previous post I would have had Lab innocent on D1.
Secondary suspect wiz & jpappy. If jpappy was scum I could see him not wanting to jump on me and have me come up innocent. On balance I probably have jpappy as innocent at that time though (I don't know about today of course).
As a working theory a scum team involving DD and/or Dawg and/or Dag on D1 would make some sense to me, looking at the game overall again. Lab was I think innocent D1 and the main reason to have her on the list now is the vote last night and the strong encouragement to tie things up as opposed to pick off Noods as guaranteed scum.
It is impossible not to consider jpappy as a very likely turn candidate because simply he makes a very good turn, being sharp enough to adjust as necessary to any change in his targets and being sporting enough to embrace his new team and try to help them to win. I'm stressing I havn't seen scum in jpappy as yet, but it would be foolish not to think him a very useful turn for them.
All I note is the strong inclination to have a coin toss/tied vote. That said...Noods being scum...it seems that this may not have been their strategy.
I still don't like the bit I bolded.
Vote count for context...we have 1 known scum left to vote, and we have odin who UD'd unknown status. Lets take Odin as innocent in the first instance. That means all of the scum votes are now placed except noodles. That means for me the following :-
- if scum are trying to save noodles at this point (and why wouldn't they - having made lots of comments that they would happily lynch her the next day, and also she is far from a dead duck at this point in the vote), then they are either on me or the Wizard.
- If Noodles had come in and voted for me, I suspect their would have been a very quick move of votes off me and onto her bearing in mind everyone innocent thinks she's scum. This would also have exposed the people attacking me.
If Odin was scum they had more leeway with two votes to place but the same problem for them arises - saving Noodles hammers everyone who supported her. On the basis that Odin ultimately didn't vote I tend to have him as innocent btw.
Nope, just manipulating and screwing up, aka being my normal self.
Hmm, If Odin and noods vote for wiz we can still tie this up. If not then itsa coin toss between the top 2 scumbags/idiot good guys (its possible, for Coler)
Highlighted to compare to the next quote.
Guess what she did. Its interesting is all. I kind of think she would have announced this in the scum den before doing it. That said, if this is a slip by FF I suppose its inconsistent with me thinking they are still trying to save Noodles as FF is voting for her at this point.
I have to have Rich as pro-town for this switch as this is the point I was making - the need to lynch Noods.
The only side a coin toss would benefit is the RR. However, FF has not moved their vote from noods to me, which they could easily have done, and done so legitimately in order to follow the coin-toss strategy, which even some innocent townies were not completely against/were supporting.
Hmmmm...don't think so...
So now noodles can at best get into a coin toss if Odin votes for me as well. I have Wiz, Annie, Rich as leaning innocent. I know I'm innocent. I really don't see the Noods voters as being scum. Note that if FF was a vote controlled by scum, they could switch to me, Noodles votes for me, and that wins the lynch. I do think they were still inclined to save Noodles if possible even at this stage.
Bizarre ?...voting for me however in a vote they couldn't win without a swap would probably lean me more innocent (an innocent townie could legitimately swap onto to and tie it up and/or two of them could vote me and I would lose the vote, i.e. if I was scum they would likely not take the risk of voting me and losing me. If I am innocent they would prefer to line me up for D3 lynch than make me look more innocent, in a vote which would require a gap of 2 to be made up to even tie. Again, it says to me that at this point in time their votes were placed, and not placed on Noodles.
Same as dawg says above. I don't agree at all.
My current theory...the votes on Noods were town votes. That gives me a primary suspect list of Dawg, Lab, & Dag. As per my previous post I would have had Lab innocent on D1.
Secondary suspect wiz & jpappy. If jpappy was scum I could see him not wanting to jump on me and have me come up innocent. On balance I probably have jpappy as innocent at that time though (I don't know about today of course).
As a working theory a scum team involving DD and/or Dawg and/or Dag on D1 would make some sense to me, looking at the game overall again. Lab was I think innocent D1 and the main reason to have her on the list now is the vote last night and the strong encouragement to tie things up as opposed to pick off Noods as guaranteed scum.
It is impossible not to consider jpappy as a very likely turn candidate because simply he makes a very good turn, being sharp enough to adjust as necessary to any change in his targets and being sporting enough to embrace his new team and try to help them to win. I'm stressing I havn't seen scum in jpappy as yet, but it would be foolish not to think him a very useful turn for them.
