Mafia 72-Vampires game thread

[Dagamoth]

Here is my problem with that Dag. There is no guarantee the slayer doesn't have a gut feeling that they plan on going with. Do we want to leave them with the decision. Don't like the 50/50 odds, and Lab already called for the PM's. Could the slayer have already sent the PM.
I know she only called for them because she is gone. Just throwing out thoughts.

My vote tonight will be going with you Dag, and I guessing Noods, and it sure sounds like JB. It's time to trust someone.

I really don't think that the slayer would go with another gut feeling shot. Last night the slayer took out Rich who turned out to be innocent. I know if I was the slayer I would want some backup for my choice of who to hit after I took out 1 innocent and almost took out another on the first which thankfully had just been the target of conversion. I believe that I have made it apparent that I can be trust to be on the towns side. I hope the slayer can agree with me that going with a consensus for the last shot is the best method.

 

[Dagamoth]

JB how opposed to having the town take out Wiz are you? Do you think the slayer would put enough faith in my judgment about taking the town consensus instead of doing it other way around?

I really don't at all like the slight possibility that we could end up not getting at least 1 vampire killed tonight.

 

[Dagamoth]

No offense to either JB or 2H but I would like to hear Noodles opinion on this. She is the only person I know I can trust to helping the town.

 

[noodles62]

ok,. just got home and tried to catch up real quick - First, not wanting to sound like I am a big chicken, but why not have the priest protect me or Dag tonight? That way the vamps will not know which one was protected and it will save at least one confirmed townie. I think the slayer should use their stake on Wiz tonight; leaving it to instinct/gut has not been that effective- that is how we lost Rich and got Jpap by the grace of God....
As far as the town staking choice? I would venture to guess either LG or FF; need to review a little more before I make up my mind. I have really had a hard time reading anyone this game!

 

[Dagamoth]

ok,. just got home and tried to catch up real quick - First, not wanting to sound like I am a big chicken, but why not have the priest protect me or Dag tonight? That way the vamps will not know which one was protected and it will save at least one confirmed townie. I think the slayer should use their stake on Wiz tonight; leaving it to instinct/gut has not been that effective- that is how we lost Rich and got Jpap by the grace of God....
As far as the town staking choice? I would venture to guess either LG or FF; need to review a little more before I make up my mind. I have really had a hard time reading anyone this game!

The only problem I see with that is it all depends on the town trusting the slayer to go through with staking Wiz. If we can trust the slayer to stake wiz shouldn't we be able to trust that the slayer will go with the town consensus? My biggest fear is that the slayer will get taken out by the vamps before they can use their stake. If we are wrong with our consensus about staking someone not wiz that means there is chance that we don't actually kill any vampires tonight.

I don't think the town would be mad if the slayer staked an innocent who the town agreed was the best option. I think the town might get angry if the slayer were to ignore the consensus and go for whoever they want. Either way I feel we have to trust that the slayer will play ball with the rest of the town. If the town takes out wiz it is guaranteed that at least 1 vampire will be taken out tonight, even if the slayer get's killed by vamps before getting their stake off.

 

[Dagamoth]

Out of the remaining players we have to consider that there are three pure spirits left. The seer, slayer and priest. The vampires I think will want to avoid them at all cost as they really need people they can convert. The only roles we know for sure are:

Wiz - Vampire (hopefully Dracula otherwise there are three vampires right now)
Dag - Seer - Pure spirit can't be converted only killed.
Noods - Innocent - Possible target for conversion just the sole reason of why would i invest two nights in a row.

jbradt
FF
Chill
LG
TwoHobbies

So between the remaining players there is at least 1 vampire (possibly but unlikely two), the priest, the slayer and 2 (hopefully not 1) townies. I think that it would be "safe" for the priest not to protect me tonight because even though I can investigate I don't think that the vampires just want to kill someone when their numbers would be down to 1 if the town takes out wiz. If the priest leaves me off the list that means that there is a 1 in 6 chance they will protect the right person tonight. It also means that there is a 2 in 6 chance that the vampires will hit another pure soul either the priest or the slayer.

That being said I think the slayer should stake FF. He would be the nearly perfect cover for the vampire team:
1. He has stated numerous times that he wouldn't be around much due to limited computer access.
2. The evils have been going against him, while some may think that this would cause town to be less suspicious of him I can see the vampires using reverse psychology in that regard.
3. Throughout this game his play as been erratic so it would be extremely hard to detect a change in game style for him going from innocent to vamp.
4. Even if FF is innocent, which I really hope he isn't anymore, his limited computer time does not really help the town out that much.

 

[jbradt]

JB how opposed to having the town take out Wiz are you? Do you think the slayer would put enough faith in my judgment about taking the town consensus instead of doing it other way around?

I really don't at all like the slight possibility that we could end up not getting at least 1 vampire killed tonight.

I'm not opposed per se to the town taking out Wiz tonight. If that's what you and Noods think is best, I'm with you guys. What I'm looking at is how do we get maximum benefit out of the tools we have to work with. This is where the slayer becomes an x-factor.

I think that if we give Wiz to the slayer, they'd be silly to ignore the 100% chance shot. We know that the slayer is working for the town, this one's a slam dunk. The danger comes if we leave it up to the slayer's discretion. I'll be honest, I have no clue who the slayer is. We have seen what (IMO) is a combination of poor judgment and good luck thus far. There is a chance they could have a "good hunch" and decide to play it. We just don't know. To me, it's not about the town getting mad; but doing what's in best interest. Everyone has a different opinion of what that is.

I think in all honesty that the likelihood of the vamps biting the slayer is far less than the possibility of the slayer staking an innocent. And I don't even want to think about what happens if the slayer plays a hunch and takes out the priest.

With the slayer being such an x-factor, and the 1/6ish chance of the slayer being bitten; I think it would be foolish not to let the slayer have him.

 

[Dagamoth]

Do you really think that the slayer would risk going off on their lonesome again after the whoops they did last night?

 

[noodles62]

The only problem I see with that is it all depends on the town trusting the slayer to go through with staking Wiz. If we can trust the slayer to stake wiz shouldn't we be able to trust that the slayer will go with the town consensus? My biggest fear is that the slayer will get taken out by the vamps before they can use their stake. If we are wrong with our consensus about staking someone not wiz that means there is chance that we don't actually kill any vampires tonight.

I don't think the town would be mad if the slayer staked an innocent who the town agreed was the best option. I think the town might get angry if the slayer were to ignore the consensus and go for whoever they want. Either way I feel we have to trust that the slayer will play ball with the rest of the town. If the town takes out wiz it is guaranteed that at least 1 vampire will be taken out tonight, even if the slayer get's killed by vamps before getting their stake off.

I get what you are saying now. I did not understand/absorb that part about the slayer possibly being bitten before they got the chance to stake. I agree then the town lynch/stake Wiz tonite and come to a consenscus on a good stake candidate for the slayer to hit. I will leave my vote on Wiz in that case. In regards to who I think is a good possiblilty for the second (hopefully last) vamp, my guess is FF, LG or Chill, in that order. Anyone else have a top suspect list?

 

[noodles62]

I agree that leaving the slayers stake up to hunch or whatever is pretty risky. I would hate to see the priest taken out in error. Wiz is a sure thing. Then again, if the vamps get lucky and bite the slayer, his/her stake may not go through, then we lose the chance to take out a proven vamp....:nilly: