Mafia 104 - Dawg the Bounty Hunter - The Play

[Chill]

I've tried working this through every which way since last night and it boils down to one thing, as was said before. If we don't lynch scum this time, the game is over and we lose. Plain and simple. And that's already factoring in a successful scum kill from Duane tonight PLUS a presumption of Bally as innocent.

Looking at scum moves....

Pregame - Dealer picked teammate = 2 scum
N1 - Someone was turned = 3 scum
N2 - They went after Lab Rat so there was no turn = 3 scum
N3 - They went after DD who died too = 3 scum
N4 - Someone else was turned = 4 scum.

(That also assumes Bally as town, not scum.)

The most I can speculate from that as an inkling to their strategy was they went for DD (low-key player at the time) AFTER Lab Rat was dead -- when they knew no one was protected anymore. At that point, they had full free choice to hit/turn anyone they might have wanted. And the scum can't investigate so it's not like they followed an invest result when they decided to target DD.

Unfortunately, all that tells us is: Given free choice, the scum opted for something low-keyed over something more obvious/vocal. (Or, possibly, that they just like DD and wanted to hang out with her if she wasn't a PR. lol.) The 2 times we know who their target was, they were both good players who weren't real vocal at the time. But this doesn't indicate why or even if they stayed with that strategy for their successful turns too.

The highlighted part bothers me Kash. You lump a sucessful hit and Bally being innocent as the same when they are opposite. The hit helps the town, Bally being innocent helps the scum. I'm trying to decide if you're trying to impress the urgency, or demoralize the town, but I'm starting to think it's the latter.

 

[rich311k]

i retract my vote on Wiz and vote to lynch Dun.

 

[Kashta]

There you are, Chill. It's about time you came out of the shadows.

When did you start suspecting me Kash? it always bothers me when you do a 360.





yes of course games play out and opinions change but when exactly did your opinion on me change? Any post in particular?

I'll tell you exactly. When Zaffy died and the only post you made was a timing vote for Dawg on the next nightfall. You disappeared from the game, Chill. But you must have been here because you made that single post to Dawg.

You just weren't ready to post anything game-related in the thread yet, were you? So you hid out instead, most likely catching up in the scumden while having to reverse your alignment and figure out what to do next as scum instead of townie.

 

[Chill]

Really Kash that's the best you got? You've been in the scum den with me you know my absences are no indication of my alignment.


Let me refresh your memory:

From Hi IQ to Dawg:

As many times as scum vote each other as distancing on day 1 I can't clear LG and actually its going to make me look harder at her. I was already going to look at you for tying up AAF and Red as well as AAF. Under the same pretense of distancing. Its pretty coincidental that LG voted Chill(scum), AAF voted Dawg and Dawg tied Red up with AAF.

LG voted Chill -- Yes I believe it was coincidental that LG voted Chill for being scummy. And nothing more.

Lady G had no way of knowing whether Chill was innocent or evil and there wasn't anything in the game thread to tip her off about Chill one way or the other.

Chill did not make a single game-related post on Day 1. And he did not leave any trace of anything at all behind in the thread for us to examine. Chill UD'd so we didn't even get the benefit of his vote to consider. Chill didn't ask anyone game-related questions or make any post that I saw to show he might suspect someone or lean someone innocent. LG's vote on Chill was unfounded, totally baseless and without meaning. For some reason, Lady G just doesn't want to admit that to us. (Remember, I said before it was a wash... neutral. I considered it inconsequential in terms of Lady G's alignment.)

Of course, Lady G tried to make some claim yesterday that she voted Chill based on his posts just for a so-called "feeling" she got from them. LMAO. That's just funny.

If LG or anyone else got ANY kind of a "feeling" about Chill at all it would have to have been based on him NOT making any useful posts in the game thread. What did Chill do in this game? He posted videos, made fluff posts, and waited until the very end to place his vote. This is nothing unusual from Chill in mafia games in general on Day 1. He posts videos, makes fluff posts, and waits with his vote quite often in these games on the first day -- both when he's innocent AND when he's evil. Usually, he does manage to find some time to make at least some game-related posts the first day to show he's involved. This time, however, he did not. But Chill is also quite busy with something or other in a lot games. The truth is... there's nothing inherently suspicious about that from Chill, Lady G, that could have possibly given you a scummy "feeling" about Chill.

Last game, Chill was scum under the alias name Scoop and he kept apologizing to his teammates in the scumden for his lack of participation. He flat out didn't have enough free time to participate enough. So even Chill's prolonged absence in this game wouldn't be suspicious to anyone who is familiar with Chill's recent play or his recent level of participation.

The fact is, Lady G... that based on Chill's posts, Chill didn't actually get into this game at all and then for some reason he wasn't able to get onto the thread soon enough to make a vote because something somewhere must have gotten in the way.... something came up beyond Chill's control which delayed him getting to the thread in time. There's absolutely nothing from Chill in this thread for us to base ANYTHING about Chill from his posts.

Yet....... Lady G miraculously had a hunch... and that's why she claims she voted him. lol.

Clearly, that is just another one of LG's bogus "feelings" that she uses when she's scum and either doesn't want to explain her real intentions or she can't find one shred of evidence to support one of her so-called "suspicions."

AAF voted Dawg -- An innocent AAF (my opinion) voted an innocent Dawg (confirmed). Yes, that would make the vote coincidental. It's unfortunate as an innocent to vote another innocent on Day 1 but that's hardly rare, unusual, or even noteworthy. Sadly, it's actually par for the course for innocents to vote fellow innocents by mistake the very first night. I sure wouldn't say it's coincidental for any reason.

Dawg tied Red up with AAF -- There we had an innocent Dawg (confirmed) creating a tie 20 minutes before nightfall between two innocents (Red/confirmed and AAF/my opinion) to find out what Chill would do about it and to see if it might flush scum out. Dawg was innocent so we know there was no malicious intent behind his vote switch. What he did and what he told us his intentions were behind that were completely truthful. Scum would know none of these 3 names were with them in the scumden. And Hi IQ calls this coincidental.

With this post...... HI IQ is trying to make something out of absolutely nothing, tell us it's all too coincidental, and try to use several totally unrelated details in combination with each other to confuse the town, hoping to raise suspicion toward innocents.

 

[Kashta]

But to be fair that's not the 360 that bothers me. (I'd still like an answer though). The more concerning change is here:







Kash you hate speculation. You've given me grief on it many times in many games. Yet you speculate. That is a signifcantly out of charachter for you. Why choose now to start speculating? Worse yet to assume that the goal was to get a low key player is dangerous. There's always the possability that they may have suspected DD was a PR. When she started her last round of posting I initally though she had drank too much cough syrup but then started to wonder if she wasn't looking to be looked at. If scum read her as trying to draw an invest she could have been targeted for that reason alone.

I hate speculation in specific ways because of what it can do to hurt us. You know that.

I hate speculation in the thread about who might be PRs by name. You know that too... everyone knows that. This applies to all games because it places our PRs at risk by making scum targets of them.

This game, we have turns. Early speculation here with townies revealing their take on the benefits/drawbacks of potential scum turn material also by name was dangerous for the town. That lets the scum sit back and pick our collective brains for ideas.... again to consider/refine their options for scum targets. I saw that happening in this game, so I spoke up about it hoping it would stop there, which it did.

But Chill, really? You are not stupid and you can't turn this around completely backwards right now and expect us to believe you do not understand that what you say is incorrect. That is not an innocent mistake from you Chill, it's pretense on your part and it's a scum move.

You know full well the exact context of speculation, the exact type of speculation, and the reasons/benefits behind speculation that I oppose in all cases where it can be used to hurt the town.

As an innocent player, Chill? No, you sure would not innocently misunderstand my use of the word speculation.

I used the word speculation, as in analysis of what the scum team has already done. I tried to find out if it might reveal something about their strategy. With that, I was hoping it might help us figure out who they are. There's nothing uncharacteristic about that for me... as you claim.

I was not wildly speculating about what they might do; i.e, should/should not do.... THAT would be uncharacteristic for me.

And what was the result of my "speculation," Chill? Was I letting the scum team know who I think the PRs are? No. Was I letting the scum team know who I think their best turn candidates are? No.

I tried to analyze decisions made by the scum team. I found a similarity between the two PRs they killed and absolutely nothing in terms of the two turns they made. My conclusion, therefore, was there was too little information to go on to base projections from.

In short, it was inconclusive..... and too "speculative" to indicate who they turned.... which is why I used the word speculate instead of analyze.

Your attempt to make me look scummy, resorting to semantics (funny how it comes down to semantics again) to fabricate a "case" on me, and to act like you don't know any better while doing it..... is pathetic.

Your case on me is full of beans. You knew that all along as you were typing it out.

The other concern is you are a meticulous player. Very keen on the rules and keeping up, yet your synopsis fails to mention the potential that a scum may have been turned back to a townie.

I posted my analysis what the scum team has done there, Chill, not what our PRs have done.

I also have truckloads of analysis (we can even call it speculation if you like) that I would not post in the game thread. (Big sigh of relief from the crowd... lol.)

I have looked at this game by posts, by suspects, by individual votes night after night, by those who vote together, and by those who don't, by level of participation, and a lot more. Presently, my spreadsheet has 6 additional tabs of analysis and I have 8 pages of typed out notes.

You want my synopsis of Baby Lyssa's eyelash batting to turn scum innocent? It was stupid to use that power prematurely Night 2 because they had to guess blindly with too many players alive still and their only investigation (Night 1) was unreliable.

Am I, therefore, counting on that possible PR turn to help us? No. It was a random shot in the dark with no useful invest result at all to go on.

This from the rules:

"Dawg – You are the leader of the Bounty Hunters (that is of course unless you ask Beth) and you will lead them in tracking down the Ice addicts. You will use your Native American instincts to find out who is an Ice addict and who is a Townie. You get one investigation each night to try and find the Ice addicts. If you are killed by the Ice addicts your power will be transferred to another Bounty Hunter but their instincts are not as good as yours. They will have a 50/50 chance at receiving the information. If you investigate the Ice Dealer or an Ice Addict night one they will show as innocent in your investigation results. You forgot to charge the batteries in your phone so you can’t get in touch with Beth or Leland in the other vehicle. If you find Leland or Beth through your investigation you will be in communication with them."​

 

[Chill]

I vote to Lynch Kash.

If I get back before nightfall I will see if anything has come along to change my mind.

 

[Kashta]

The highlighted part bothers me Kash. You lump a sucessful hit and Bally being innocent as the same when they are opposite. The hit helps the town, Bally being innocent helps the scum. I'm trying to decide if you're trying to impress the urgency, or demoralize the town, but I'm starting to think it's the latter.

No Chill, you're wrong again. My lead in paragraph referenced the sum total of all the analysis I've done thus far, not just a single part of it. You can see that in the first sentence "I've tried working this through every which way..."

I accounted for variables that seemed significant, favorably or otherwise (Pr hit/Bally's unkn role).... leaving out variables that were unlikely to amount to anything one way or another (the PR turn attempt).

The next line introduces one very specific analysis attempt I wanted to share "Looking at scum moves...."

I did not feel the conclusion was all that hot, which I pointed out in the last line: "But this doesn't indicate why or even if they stayed with that strategy for their successful turns too."

While I thought the result was inconclusive, it was relevant to post in the thread. The thread had died, the town seemed to have given up. I was hoping to spark conversation again and to remind people we need to keep looking for scum. I was still trying to find scum myself and others should too.

I'll take your innuendo there are respond as though they were direct questions.

Impress the urgency? Yes, most definitely. We can't miss scum again or we're through. For townies not paying attention to numbers and such like I do, they may not realize how close we are to the end of this game. No reason those of us still playing should not tell them that.

Demoralize the town? No. The town is already demoralized as it is, me included. But I'm still hanging in with this and so should other innocents.

 

[Chill]

I hate speculation in specific ways because of what it can do to hurt us. You know that.

I hate speculation in the thread about who might be PRs by name. You know that too... everyone knows that. This applies to all games because it places our PRs at risk by making scum targets of them.

This game, we have turns. Early speculation here with townies revealing their take on the benefits/drawbacks of potential scum turn material also by name was dangerous for the town. That lets the scum sit back and pick our collective brains for ideas.... again to consider/refine their options for scum targets. I saw that happening in this game, so I spoke up about it hoping it would stop there, which it did.

But Chill, really? You are not stupid and you can't turn this around completely backwards right now and expect us to believe you do not understand that what you say is incorrect. That is not an innocent mistake from you Chill, it's pretense on your part and it's a scum move.

You know full well the exact context of speculation, the exact type of speculation, and the reasons/benefits behind speculation that I oppose in all cases where it can be used to hurt the town.

As an innocent player, Chill? No, you sure would not innocently misunderstand my use of the word speculation.

I used the word speculation, as in analysis of what the scum team has already done. I tried to find out if it might reveal something about their strategy. With that, I was hoping it might help us figure out who they are. There's nothing uncharacteristic about that for me... as you claim.

I was not wildly speculating about what they might do; i.e, should/should not do.... THAT would be uncharacteristic for me.

And what was the result of my "speculation," Chill? Was I letting the scum team know who I think the PRs are? No. Was I letting the scum team know who I think their best turn candidates are? No.

I tried to analyze decisions made by the scum team. I found a similarity between the two PRs they killed and absolutely nothing in terms of the two turns they made. My conclusion, therefore, was there was too little information to go on to base projections from.

In short, it was inconclusive..... and too "speculative" to indicate who they turned.... which is why I used the word speculate instead of analyze.

Your attempt to make me look scummy, resorting to semantics (funny how it comes down to semantics again) to fabricate a "case" on me, and to act like you don't know any better while doing it..... is pathetic.

Your case on me is full of beans. You knew that all along as you were typing it out.



I posted my analysis what the scum team has done there, Chill, not what our PRs have done.

I also have truckloads of analysis (we can even call it speculation if you like) that I would not post in the game thread. (Big sigh of relief from the crowd... lol.)

I have looked at this game by posts, by suspects, by individual votes night after night, by those who vote together, and by those who don't, by level of participation, and a lot more. Presently, my spreadsheet has 6 additional tabs of analysis and I have 8 pages of typed out notes.

You want my synopsis of Baby Lyssa's eyelash batting to turn scum innocent? It was stupid to use that power prematurely Night 2 because they had to guess blindly with too many players alive still and their only investigation (Night 1) was unreliable.

Am I, therefore, counting on that possible PR turn to help us? No. It was a random shot in the dark with no useful invest result at all to go on.

This from the rules:

"Dawg – You are the leader of the Bounty Hunters (that is of course unless you ask Beth) and you will lead them in tracking down the Ice addicts. You will use your Native American instincts to find out who is an Ice addict and who is a Townie. You get one investigation each night to try and find the Ice addicts. If you are killed by the Ice addicts your power will be transferred to another Bounty Hunter but their instincts are not as good as yours. They will have a 50/50 chance at receiving the information. If you investigate the Ice Dealer or an Ice Addict night one they will show as innocent in your investigation results. You forgot to charge the batteries in your phone so you can’t get in touch with Beth or Leland in the other vehicle. If you find Leland or Beth through your investigation you will be in communication with them."​

So are you telling me you would not have used that power early on. Don't make me dig out that post but you've used a PR power very early on with little information to base it on in the past.

To gloss over the possability seems unKash like to me.

 

[Chill]

I assure you I'm not twisting your words. I'm asking questions based on what I view as inconsistencies. You are right we can't afford to get tonight wrong so I will weigh your reply but for now my vote stands.

 

[Kashta]

Chill was very vocal, active, and seeming to be digging in the beginning of the game but hasn't done squat since. I expected less participation over the weekend because that's his normal thing. But it's Thursday already and he didn't come back to anything remotely active before today. Not seeing any posts from Chill I'd almost forget he's still in the game 5 days later if it wasn't for his name showing up in our vote counts (and no death scene in the thread to account for his absence).

If we're seriously looking for turn material, I'd say that example perfectly fits the bill.

That's what put Chill on my latest suspect list.

I said earlier (several days ago) I felt as though I trusted Chill too much when I found nothing at all to wonder about in his earlier posting. Later, I reread his old posts and they still seemed letter-perfect to me. His voting record also remained consistent from each day to the next so I could not find fault with anything there, either. Chill didn't worry me much until I noticed how drastically his participation decreased after the weekend was over. I could overlook an extra day or so as it was a longer-than-normal holiday weekend. But, if still innocent, there's no reason he wasn't more active after that last nightfall than to merely vote when the next nightfall should be. There's a reason he didn't post anything more than that.

Now as I read his concocted case on me, there is no doubt. Chill is scum.

I vote to lynch Chill.