MAFIA #5 The Play.....

I've said, in every game, that the first lynching is effectively random. Yes, it's random, but that doesn't mean we can't see who is voting where, when, and how.

This thread is going to be so long, I'll probably have to use only vote patterns and notes I make along the way. I'm NOT going to reread 100 pages of posts.

Remember that I have a workshop next week (starting a week from Monday) and participation will be spotty at best during that time.

Now on a game note, my watch list,

Zsandmann - he's too good a player to not watch, but his posts so far are exactly like game 4

JohnLarson - just because I have to give him heck every game for outing me in game 3.

Coler - cause he was part of the team that outed me in 3

Newbies - because we have no references for you guys. Sorry.
 
OgreMkV said:
Heh, I used to role-play too and I've been doing this for a while. I've seen people never be mafia. There are 18 players, that's less than a 1 in 4 chance of being mafia and about a 1 in 3 chance of being any role. Go with the odds here. If we think rb fudged the numbers... I wouldn't want to play.
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I agree.. Never said Bob did, I said I did... I was giving a justification as to why I am thinking that someone from the previous game has a higher chance in my book of being mafia this game.

All we can do when we play this is base it off of our personal intuition and whatever we can glean out of a forum posting. So this is why I choose to make my list as it is until proof otherwise.
 
BTW: I just reread the rules on page 1. I was under the impression that the lynch and the mafia hit both had a 50% chance of going wrong, but instead... ONE of them will go wrong. 50/50 each one.

So our information choices may be limited today after all. Weird.
 
so lets vote for somebody random!
 
Coler said:
I'm an innocent.

If you lynch me, you will find that I'm an innocent.

If the mafia murders me it is because I am an innocent.

If the vigilante murders me it is because they are mafia or wrong, because I am an innocent.

There...now go vote for someone else.

If I don't post 20 times a day, its because I have nothing to say or because I am working...I am still an innocent.

Glad to have this cleared up at the start of the game :)

I'm considering sticking in a vote for someone picked at complete random...because on day one it is very random, and you can learn a lot from the reactions...one thing causes people to come out of the woodwork and that's votes.

As I typed that I think it seems unfair to pick out anyone else...so I vote to lynch coler :)
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already did :D
 
Would it be effective to have a limit to how many posts per person each "day?" I mean look at last game. So many posts were either completely unrelated to the game, people going on huge rants about nothing (*cough* neon julie *cough*), and then people taking things waaay to personally. It might take away from the game. Less to analyze but still we already have 13 pages! People don't want to read all that! Simple lists of suspicions and why is sufficent and then when the time comes a post about who you want to vote for. I don't know it's just an idea...
 
Ok, time for some analysis. But holy paranoia, batman.

First off, I agree that Jo's posting patterns are erratic and nonsensical at best. However, I was at least partially responsible in getting him to sign up, and it was kind of a "hey its fun, try it out and you'll figure it out along the way" kind of thing. Now, I realize that if it seems like I'm protecting him now and hes mafia, then I'm digging myself a hole, but I just wanted to throw it out there as a line of thought.

JM's posting patterns seem relatively different form how she started the game last time, but it may be a schedule thing like she said. Although, there were several times I noticed she would state that she would be gone/busy/inactive for periods yet keep posting throughout those times if attacked. I don't know if that means anything right now.

On one hand I want to vote just to prove that I'm as willing to take a wild guess as anyone else. However, if I vote for an innocent, will I look like mafia? If I wait and vote after everyone else, will I look like mafia trying to blend in? If I jump on a train with everyone else, does that make me look guilty? I'm not going to cast a vote right now just for the sake of having a vote out there. I want to read some more posts before even thinking about making a decision. Its about time for water changes..right after some character development :D
 
jpappy789 said:
Would it be effective to have a limit to how many posts per person each "day?" I mean look at last game. So many posts were either completely unrelated to the game, people going on huge rants about nothing (*cough* neon julie *cough*), and then people taking things waaay to personally. It might take away from the game. Less to analyze but still we already have 13 pages! People don't want to read all that! Simple lists of suspicions and why is sufficent and then when the time comes a post about who you want to vote for. I don't know it's just an idea...
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You're kidding right? The only way to figure out 1 group from another is from posts. If all posting was done away with we wouldn't get slip ups like the one from Joander.

I could see the mafia wanting less posts since they know who is who but an innocent wanting that would be suicide.

Anyone that has followed the games knows it involves lots of reading.
 
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