Analysis of Ice - day one to now.
First post of any note : post 55. Earlier enquiry as to how many mafia there in fact are.
But is that a ploy? It was pointed out that he was to quiet in 4 and ended up being Mafia.
Could he be using that against us?
I'm very wary of people that claim innocence so quickly,especially players that have been playing multiple games.
Then post 88 - quotes three of us, one by clown lover (re numbers of mafia), one by me, ice hints at me being mafia for posting about a mafia 101 strategystrategy , one by joander, ice says that joander has made the classic mafia slip up.
Comment : This 'classic mafia newbie slip-up' has only ever been related back to cory lover in game 4...it is not a 'classic' mafia newbie slip-up.
Then post 95: Note naming CL and Joander...and me too btw lol (check my earlier post for who first put CL and Joander together...I may have missed this post by Ice in that regard)
If anyone is in the mood for a top 3 this early here is who I think needs watching:
Joander : obvious slip up?
Clown- Lover : Already trying to point out mafia power roles?
Coler : always has me worried lol, just going to watch because he is who he is, has me a bit worried about his posting behavior
Of course its only a few hours into the 1st day and anything can change.
There is then some innocuous posting concerning how many mafia there are (ice thought there were 22 players at one point, no big deal, I think), also advice to new players to post nothing with a 'mafia vibe' as it will make us think they're mafia. Some comment about the roles being completely random (Ice was detective last game)
Then this : post 164 : Flattering for me,
but my 'list' was not a list at that stage. It was an analysis of joander, sploke and i think dangerdoll :
I'm going to agree with Coler on his list for the most part, top 3 look good to me and have also perked my mafia meter.
I'm not willing to take a chance on Joander just being a newbie.I think it was a major mistake on their part as it was with Cory Lover.
I vote to lynch Joander
Subject to change of course but unless someone shows something more it stands.
Adopting someone elses position, if they have named an innocent, is a mafia tactic - it means the mafia can divorce him/her self from the innocent lynch in due course.
Now, look at my post - not a list at all. Its post 157
Some analysis :
Sploke :
here I quote Sploke
Something didn't ring true for me here but that's just high paranoia up to a point
here I quote Sploke
Defence of Joanders, attack on judgemax, no suggestion of a vote
Quote Sploke
Now the role playing
Conclusion : inconsistent
Joander :
Quote Joan
Classic newbie mafia player type of quote, as is this one :
Quote Joan...yes I refer to it as classic newbie mafia. I take back the 'classic'
as is this one (yes you can btw I did, as a way of seeing who would jump on it)
Quote Joan
which you did (jump on it)
Quote Joan
and again here (quoting my first post you said, hanging it out there) :
Guess what Quote Joan
Then you also have a little tickle at judge, who has also voted for you
Another Quote
Finally you vote for me
Another Quote
Conclusion : either bad mafia, or just new to the game. Lot of panicky defences in there as well
Jpappy :
Quote Jpappy
This post rang my mafia bell. When I was mafia I was too darn lazy to read the thread. I find townies more likely to parse the information :
Quote Jpappy
And you ran away from it pretty quickly when that was pointed out :
Quote Jpappy
When joander voted for me, saying my wierd post at the start was the reason :
Quote Jpappy
And yet coler makes the list according to jpappy
Quote Jpappy
Conclusion : a little bit dodgy
Ice : can't detect anything suspicious beyond the usual suspicion just yet
Judgemax : playing soooo differently from last time, makes me suspicious.
Jensons : no read yet, but I think I lean towards an innocent here.
There ya go...something to talk about
Here in fact is a list I posted earlier than the above post (at post 107) :
We have yet to hear from Jensons, jpappy, Johnlarsson & bkw
My people to watch (slightly perking my mafia meter) in no particular order are :
joander
Sploke
Dangerdoll
Judge
Note presence of Judge, Dangerdoll. Ice did not like this list as much as my analysis of three players though.
We then see Ice again at post 191...focusing on Sploke...analysed by me, my analysis adopted by Ice as a list
lol thats paranoia talking or maybe scared to slip up like your other mafia brethern, you may as well not post with that mindset.
Post 211 Talking to Clown Lover...says outright that he may switch to put Clown Lover over the top. This is what in fact happened :
I have to agree with Bkw. Your posts make no sense and look to me as if you're trying to confuse people.
Joander is still getting my vote but if it takes 1 vote to put you over the top I may switch. Its not important which one goes 1st just that one of you do go. The other will follow shortly I'm sure.
Remember JM's slightly extreme reaction to being called mafia early in the game 'see if I play with y'all'. This is Ice's response at post 239
wow 3 posts before mine came out.
I wasn't going to harp on the anger aspect of the post. Judge is female,I'm going to leave it at that lol.
Same reason if I was in game 4 that I wouldn't of jumped on NJ. I would have broken a rule and PMed her though. Her posting was excessive and uncalled for.
HN called Ice on this, said he was defending a mafia. Ice said he typed as HN's prior post accusing of drama, so couldn't be a defence. Maybe. Could be a caution though...bkw did similar, see my post re JM.
Posts his own list at 285 :
Okay I have to set 4 fantasy baseball lineups and make possible roster moves then get ready for bed so this is most likely my last post until tomorrow morning before I leave for work.
My top 3 in no particular order
Joander - could be just a newbie mistake but I see to much Cory Lover here.
Jpappy - Less posts wanted makes me nervous. Less posts = less info = mafia advantage
Clown Lover - I don't know if its all the stats and he is trying to confuse the masses but I'm really nervous about this one.
My vote for now stays with Joander. Maybe after a nights sleep and some morning scanning I'll have a better feel for who could be mafia.
To be honest I'd have as much chance at hitting mafia putting all the names in a hat and pulling one out. There just isn't enough to go on in the 1st day. Especially after only 12 hours or so.
Till morning!
post 301 is a nothing post. Says he thinks Ogre needs watchin...Coler is probably innocent...HN also
The final vote for Clown Lover : post 382.
Wow I had to speed read to make sure of my final vote.
I myself after thinking all day and then skimming the posts have to agree that the chance that Jo actually slipped up is pretty slim. I'm thinking it was a newbie mistake.
Clown was my 2nd choice. To much confusion trying to be spread with the random isn't random and numbers. With newbies this would just confuse them even more, I know my head spun for a split second lol.
I remove my Joander vote and vote to lynch Clown.
Worst case scenario they are both innocent.Hopefully 1 isn't. If it ends up tied and Rb does the random coin flip hopefully he takes out the mafia.
Note : Jpappy was Ice's second suspect Clown was his third, going by his own list see above EDIT : I notice he named three in no particular order, in fairness. EDIT
I posted the sequence of the last votes for CL - Jensons, then me, then ice votes and I retract mine simultaneously. My post didn't say I set a trap. In fact, it wasn't much of a trap to make Mafia vote Clown Lover in the end as it was a vote for Clown Lover who was innocent, thankfully I pulled it before night. However Ice reacted by saying he hadn't fallen into a trap as he voted as I withdrew mine. But my vote was actually intended to see if people would defend Clown Lover, which didn't happen.
We have to check to see if Clown Lover was ended by Ice's vote
Post 428 Ice talks about people not voting - ZS & HN...says this is dodgy. Says Mee-Mee's vote made no sense (it didn't : ' I vote for malbri because Joander has most votes' ??)
Post 440 & 439 Ice says the PM thing is a red-herring - it is/could be. I got one after night fell because I stupidly posted during night time and RB deleted my post - so I got the usual automated deletion pm. Similar at 443.
And that, boys and girls, is my audit of Ice. Does anyone think it gives him a case to answer ?