This is the first half of my thoughts so far.
This entire post is actually rather logical and makes sense, if you go on the assumtion that wiz is evil. However, if he isn't, the entire post is one massive blunder and pile of distractions. I do agree that it seems a little too coincidental for wiz's attackers to in turn be attacked, but then it also seems strupid for witches to be so open and bold, even if Wizard is their High Priest fella. So early in the game, revealing their cards now would be foolish and risky, if he was evil they'd be next. However, if he's innocent, they would probably be leaning innocent on most people's lists, and could say "we tried to help him". My response to this idea is that wizard may well be innocent, but both Wing Nut and Doom could very well be evil, and are leaning as such.
I agree with all three of your points here, about how mafia try to vote when they can, especially on day one. I even agree with how your logic implicates wiz, HIIQ, and Doom. However, I also think that you shouldn't write people off simply because they had a somewhat consequential vote on day one. I have to go back and check the voting times, but if there were people who placed a second vote after three votes had been placed on someone else their vote should count on the inconsequential side of this just as much as a first voter.
And what did we learn after you changed your vote, besides the names of 3 now-dead innocents? Your reasons for voting Driver are omgus, low posting, and saying they would change their vote? Only the last one holds any water, IMHO. Especially for a kill vote. However, the last one, that he would be changing his vote, seems logical until you look at the timing. Driver, at that time, still had an hour and 10 minutes to vote.
This post is just so I know where I left off, though I am curious as to why someone would make a post like this, except to up there post count.