Mafia 100-The Witches Return-The Game

[[AC] Doomsday998]

HH, did you think Tree's vote on Wiz was well placed? The logic was faulty and that has been commented on already. In that case I see little risk in a teammate point that out. Again, nowhere have I indicated that I really think Cnote is Wiz's partner. I'm not trying to direct your view towards anyone. I'm simply stating that your consideration of those two players really didn't make any sense to begin with.

I hardly see how a joke vote by wing on Tree mounted any sort of defense for Wiz. Heck, it was like the 3rd vote of the entire day...with 20 players that leaves A LOT of votes left to be placed. You say that someone would be as subtle as to vote for Tree without openly defending Wiz but at the same time that does not match up with someone reacting with "emotion" and even voting for Tree so quickly in the first place.

You could still be correct about Wiz/wing but you're far off when it comes to my role. I've played enough games to know that any theories early on that name this many people as scum (including a boss) usually are not as air tight as you might think...luckily I already know that there is a hole in yours.

 

[[AC] xx_Nemesis_xx]

If you guys are going to claim power roles come straight the f out with it or clam up because there is nothing scummier than a limp wristed half-assed hint that you're a pro-town power role.

 

[[AC] Doomsday998]

If you guys are going to claim power roles come straight the f out with it or clam up because there is nothing scummier than a limp wristed half-assed hint that you're a pro-town power role.

Never intended to do that on my end. I've never been a fan of RCing.

 

[[AC] xx_Nemesis_xx]

OK well at least you're clarifying immediately.

 

[[AC] xx_Nemesis_xx]

Quoted for context as to why anyone's eyebrows would be raised by your previous post. I mean really.

You could still be correct about Wiz/wing but you're far off when it comes to my role. I've played enough games to know that any theories early on that name this many people as scum (including a boss) usually are not as air tight as you might think...luckily I already know that there is a hole in yours.

Anyway I have a chance to watch the thread but my next substantial contribution if all goes as planned will be this evening after I've re-read the Day 2 posting.

 

[[AC] Hammerhead 991]

These are the Day 1 votes at nightfall for reference purposes :-




OK lets look at the Day 1 final votes again. Things that scum do.

1. They vote for each other, ideally (for them) in a totally non-threatening way. That's because a) they have to vote for someone and b) they like to point back to the vote if the other scum gets nailed and say 'I was on him the whole time.

2. They don't like, if at all avoidable, to have their vote count for anything. On Day that is usually totally avoidable, as the town are statistically likely in the absence of a big slip up to fasten onto a townie or two.

2. They kill somebody with a view to making innocents look scummy, or to take out a really good player.

Looking at the idea that scum vote in inconsequential ways, Hammer, Wizard, Chupa, Tree (for ditching off wizard when someone joined him with a second vote), Hi IQ, Doomsday and Maelstrom would be considered. Fire was a second vote on Wizard. That is just a little less scummy than a singleton vote so I leave Fire out for now.

Delete Maestrom also- known innocent.

I take Tree off the list for the reasons I gave earlier, mildly leaning them innocent - I don't see them letting one go even to a tie on Day 1 in a game with no guaranteed turns and no effort was made to save Tree. I would lean Wingnut, C-Note and Driver innocent based on not making inconsequential votes, and interestingly Driver is of course, a (dead) known innocent.

I can make a stronger case for Wingnut being innocent based on him also having two votes himself. Again I don't believe that the witches would allow this to be the case so close to nightfall on Day 1, if he was a witch, with the risk of 3 votes getting you in a tie for the lynch.

This would also allow me to lean Badhaggis and UhOh as innocent - for not being inconsequential votes.

Leaving Hammer, Wizard, Chupa, Hi IQ and Doomsday as inconsequential votes. Hold that thought.

I said earlier that scum vote for themselves a lot on Day 1. The reason is that they can do it knowing that they won't get a dangerous reaction from the person voted for, they can stage some kind of argument if they like and also if a couple more votes do come on, they can take their own vote off as necessary and put it elsewhere for the save. They can also point backwards if one of them does get exposed and killed and say 'yeah I was on him from the start'.

Anyway, ideally as a scummy Day 1 voter a couple of them park their bs votes on each other.

Turning to the actual votes, Doomsday voted for Hi IQ and Hi IQ voted for Doomsday. Turning back to Wizard and Chupa, Wizard voted for Chupa.

Chupa voted for Rickets, for the record.

OK so those are my thoughts based on a bog standard scum Day 1 vote plan.

Turning to the hit :-

Maelstrom is a known innocent and one who was killed by the death spell. Unless they thought Maelstrom was a top player they would hit him just to make townies look bad. In fact even if the hit was done because they thought he was good they would be looking to get some suspicion onto townies as well anyway.

Gunslinger and Rickets were voting for Maelstrom. There is some cause for thinking that they might therefore be innocent and that the witches hope to use their votes in the future against them.

In passing I comment that Maelstrom was voting for me. I believe Maelstrom was quite likely also hit to make it look as if he was on to something in doing this - reason being his vote was based on an analysis of my posts and not just random. I only make this comment in basing. Of course, I lean myself as a known innocent but you people can't know that.

I don't know that I'm willing to lean Gunslinger and Rickets innocent based on the same logic but I could certainly be persuaded. In any event, by being part of a potentially consequential vote (lynching an innocent Mael if somebody else jumped on), I would lean them a little innocent as per the discussion on inconsequential/consequential votes above.

In summary for those reasons I lean Wizard, Hi IQ and Doomsday just a little bit scummy when compared to the rest of the town because they each come in under both headings of Day 1 scumtells. I don't know how I feel about Chupas vote on Rickets but it is interesting.

These are very mild leanings I stress and not based on posts made by any of them. I will be re-reading the thread later to see how I feel about their posts generally.

In terms of feedback, I'd say:

1. check your numbering

2. the only thing i agree with you on is your second #2. I think that your first two points are filled with holes and don't seem to me to be reliable theories to work from. Sure, scum sometimes do those things but not always. I've made it pretty clear who I think is scum, so I can't say as I agree with your conclusions, but I do like that you're putting stuff out there for others to see, and putting effort into looking for scum.

 

[[AC] Hammerhead 991]

If you guys are going to claim power roles come straight the f out with it or clam up because there is nothing scummier than a limp wristed half-assed hint that you're a pro-town power role.

Feeling better after getting that out? I don't remember anyone claiming anyting. I know for **** sure I didn't.

 

[[AC] Hammerhead 991]

HH, did you think Tree's vote on Wiz was well placed? The logic was faulty and that has been commented on already. In that case I see little risk in a teammate point that out. Again, nowhere have I indicated that I really think Cnote is Wiz's partner. I'm not trying to direct your view towards anyone. I'm simply stating that your consideration of those two players really didn't make any sense to begin with.

I hardly see how a joke vote by wing on Tree mounted any sort of defense for Wiz. Heck, it was like the 3rd vote of the entire day...with 20 players that leaves A LOT of votes left to be placed. You say that someone would be as subtle as to vote for Tree without openly defending Wiz but at the same time that does not match up with someone reacting with "emotion" and even voting for Tree so quickly in the first place.

You could still be correct about Wiz/wing but you're far off when it comes to my role. I've played enough games to know that any theories early on that name this many people as scum (including a boss) usually are not as air tight as you might think...luckily I already know that there is a hole in yours.

Actually, yes. I do think Tree's vote was well placed. Maybe the reason was faulty, but the placement was sound. I honestly hadn't considered that it could have been a distancing vote until someone pointed out that it was retracted pretty quickly when a second vote joined in on Wiz. It is interesting that Tree jumped the vote.

Obviously, we see things differently. I've stated my case, and on Wiz, my mind won't change. I'm not 100% on you and Wing. But I still feel pretty strongly that most likely both of you are scum.

 

[[AC] Doomsday998]

OK lets look at the Day 1 final votes again. Things that scum do.

1. They vote for each other, ideally (for them) in a totally non-threatening way. That's because a) they have to vote for someone and b) they like to point back to the vote if the other scum gets nailed and say 'I was on him the whole time.

Ideally, yes. But at the same time with this many people it's just as easy to shrug off a joke vote on some random person. Most early votes came down to joking about the assigned user names. A vote placed on an innocent lessens the chance that your vote will get stuck on a teammate while at the same time it isn't hard to fall back on it being a joke, even if it is then stuck on a dead innocent. I could see that being played out as well.

2. They don't like, if at all avoidable, to have their vote count for anything. On Day that is usually totally avoidable, as the town are statistically likely in the absence of a big slip up to fasten onto a townie or two.

I wont disagree with that entirely. But the timing of votes comes into play...and you rarely have any control how other people vote. A person making a vote on a singleton shouldn't be ruled out because someone else decided to vote there as well. When the vote was placed the thought process was still the same as those whose votes stayed as singletons.

2. They kill somebody with a view to making innocents look scummy, or to take out a really good player.

Meh, it's a possibility but rarely do those plans ever work out anyways. All it does is lead to a WIFOM situation that ultimately gets ignored, or at least it should. It makes no sense to get into the scum team's heads an over analyze the hit. Generally it comes down to hitting good/talkative players or someone just completely random.

Turning to the hit :-

Maelstrom is a known innocent and one who was killed by the death spell. Unless they thought Maelstrom was a top player they would hit him just to make townies look bad. In fact even if the hit was done because they thought he was good they would be looking to get some suspicion onto townies as well anyway.

Gunslinger and Rickets were voting for Maelstrom. There is some cause for thinking that they might therefore be innocent and that the witches hope to use their votes in the future against them.

In passing I comment that Maelstrom was voting for me. I believe Maelstrom was quite likely also hit to make it look as if he was on to something in doing this - reason being his vote was based on an analysis of my posts and not just random. I only make this comment in basing. Of course, I lean myself as a known innocent but you people can't know that.

Like I mentioned above I don't see the point in getting into much analysis as to why Mael was hit. Yes, it is convenient that they were voting for you. But keep in mind Mael was, until recently, the a talkative player (I think I only recently passed them in terms of vote count). That certainly makes them a target when most of the identities are unknown.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that I think your thoughts are based on some pretty big generalizations. And I realize that these did implicate me, at least according to you. I didn't like having my vote stuck on HI IQ (as a joke OMGUS) and didn't necessarily intend it to stay that way unless there was absolutely nothing going on. I ended up missing nightfall, not by choice...

 

[[AC] Doomsday998]

Actually, yes. I do think Tree's vote was well placed. Maybe the reason was faulty, but the placement was sound. I honestly hadn't considered that it could have been a distancing vote until someone pointed out that it was retracted pretty quickly when a second vote joined in on Wiz. It is interesting that Tree jumped the vote.

Obviously, we see things differently. I've stated my case, and on Wiz, my mind won't change. I'm not 100% on you and Wing. But I still feel pretty strongly that most likely both of you are scum.

Given the vote count does it really seem all that difficult to see why they changed votes?

The only thing that escapes me is why Driver was the one chosen to switch to...