Mafia #13 - The Witches of ACville- the play

[charlie_stubbs]

My thoughts on the LadyG kill:

1) She seemed to agree with my suspect list of Ice, Br, and DC. This would merit a killing by the witches.

2) She's just that good a player.

3) Her agreeing with my list made her a good 'anti-target'. The list is pretty much wrong, but good enough to cause some on that list to be lynched, therefore killing an innocent.

If the kill was based on case two, then (no offense), but I think Ice and Z would be better targets than LadyG. She's in the top three, but the first one? Maybe maybe not

If it's based on case two, then we have a fairly weak witch team and we could confidently go forward with that list as a base.

If it's based on case 3, then we have a very powerful witch team and the three on that list are mostly innocent. That would lead me to suspect Zsand as a leading witch. The other potential witches (IMHO) aren't quite up to that serious misdirection on turn 1. They're leaving a lot of good players up and running.


Personally, I'm leaning toward case 1 with case three a close second. I'm curious as to others thoughts.

Actually, I don't think it depends on me being innocent or guilty. The fact that she agreed with my list the important bit (and the fact that she was innocent).

If I was guilty (I'm not, but 'if), then you just switch the 'then' part of the if-then statements and they are still valid.

I'm not asking you to believe my innocence (I'm not that naive). I'm just suggesting a couple of options for the reasoning behind G's death and what our likely responses could be.

Switching King for Ice i still like your list. I'm going to keep beating Brk till he confesses, you work over the other two.

 

[KingOfTheDeep]

part of DD's post

tail of rat
wing of bat
allow this cat to chit and chat! - Post 190

Not really sure of this as the visuals are all over our avatars and names. However, I do see the points brought up by you guys but I do think that either we are reading either too far into it or not enough. If I were to guess at a glance, it is saying to me that someone who drinks the witchy brew is quite talkative. That can be LG, she's got 67 posts here, while Z has 35posts and is in 2nd place then we have 3rd place Ice who has 27 posts.




agreeing with her logic towards LG

this is a very good post, very logical..i can definitely see the point about LG, and i have been suspicious of her since my first post..

so for now, i vote to burn ladyG

I don't know if I believe any of theses scenarios but the fact that Ogre wasn't on LG or JM clears him for the day at least IMO.

Lady G had many lists of some sort. 6 that I counted last night.

I'm more concerned with post 313 from KOTD. I don't see where he got vote for LG out of the post DD made but he saw a reason or thought he did. DD wasn't even pointing a finger at LG.

As for JM, I think thats where you need to look for witches. Plant and DC were on her the hardest with a questionable vote and post by Z.

at the time i was suspicous of her, like i said..she gave me a bad feeling..so i voted, if i felt a better suspect came along, i would have taken my vote off her.

 

[DeputyChiefJR]

My vote was a first day vote. I distinctly remember saying that I hadn't found anyone that screamed suspicious through the day. JM caught my attention as well as many others. I'm not sure what else to say on that subject. I play the same way every game and everyone pegs me as guilty, I must have learned my playing style from Coler. I guess just because I don't play like everyone else it means I'm automatically guilty...

 

[charlie_stubbs]

My vote was a first day vote. I distinctly remember saying that I hadn't found anyone that screamed suspicious through the day. JM caught my attention as well as many others. I'm not sure what else to say on that subject. I play the same way every game and everyone pegs me as guilty, I must have learned my playing style from Coler. I guess just because I don't play like everyone else it means I'm automatically guilty...

Who are your suspects now, my warty friend???

 

[Sploke]

My thoughts on the LadyG kill:

1) She seemed to agree with my suspect list of Ice, Br, and DC. This would merit a killing by the witches.

2) She's just that good a player.

3) Her agreeing with my list made her a good 'anti-target'. The list is pretty much wrong, but good enough to cause some on that list to be lynched, therefore killing an innocent.

If the kill was based on case two, then (no offense), but I think Ice and Z would be better targets than LadyG. She's in the top three, but the first one? Maybe maybe not

If it's based on case two, then we have a fairly weak witch team and we could confidently go forward with that list as a base.

If it's based on case 3, then we have a very powerful witch team and the three on that list are mostly innocent. That would lead me to suspect Zsand as a leading witch. The other potential witches (IMHO) aren't quite up to that serious misdirection on turn 1. They're leaving a lot of good players up and running.


Personally, I'm leaning toward case 1 with case three a close second. I'm curious as to others thoughts.

If I had to choose one scenario, it would be 3. B is playing like a newbie and DC is his usual drunken, tardy self. Ice I was unsure about but I'm leaning innocent on him as well. Going from there...

CS is all over DC, which I can kind of see but I'm still not buying it, and pushing hard to lynch the newbie, generally an easy sell due to the usual slip-ups and possibly some confusion about the rules. Ice also mentioned that plantling was pushing for JM (although so was I for a bit) so that will probably warrant a closer look later on.

 

[charlie_stubbs]

If I had to choose one scenario, it would be 3. B is playing like a newbie and DC is his usual drunken, tardy self. Ice I was unsure about but I'm leaning innocent on him as well. Going from there...

CS is all over DC, which I can kind of see but I'm still not buying it, and pushing hard to lynch the newbie, generally an easy sell due to the usual slip-ups and possibly some confusion about the rules. Ice also mentioned that plantling was pushing for JM (although so was I for a bit) so that will probably warrant a closer look later on.

I gotta go "choke some chickens". I would like to see some top three lists posted today.

 

[Swayde]

I still do not have a strong opinion on anyone. I am very tempted to burn myself because I don't feel I am being any help to the town at all this round. It could be my new allergy medicine making my brain so fuzzy, or it could be just that nobody has managed to set off any bells yet for me.

I was very surprised to see Lady G killed off. I think this means 1 of 2 things...

1) The witches assumed the herbalist would be protecting one of the usual suspects who gets killed off fast.

2) The usual suspects who get killed off fast are all witches so they took out someone they felt would be a threat.

I guess there is a 3rd reason as well. Maybe they want us to give more thought to her lists and theories. I personally don't think the spell things are really clues, but they may want us to believe they are because they don't hint at any of them and Lady G seemed to be pushing them very hard.

I'm thinking Ogre, Z, CS, Ice and DD are going to be the people I will be watching most closely today, however, I don't trust anyone and on a scale of 1-10 (10 being innocent) I'd have these five as 3's with everyone else at 4's =/

 

[ZSandmann]

well..we didn't have a productive night..obviously..but when have we ever taken out 2 or the evils in the first night?

i should have taken my vote off of LG..BUT i can't take that back now..SORRY LADY!

i guess we really just need to work as a group, even if there are witches among us..they will slip up and make catchable mistakes like always..

I don't understand the phrase I bolded above, I think "or" should be "of" but just wanted to know if you could clarify that for me.

My thoughts on the LadyG kill:

1) She seemed to agree with my suspect list of Ice, Br, and DC. This would merit a killing by the witches.

2) She's just that good a player.

3) Her agreeing with my list made her a good 'anti-target'. The list is pretty much wrong, but good enough to cause some on that list to be lynched, therefore killing an innocent.

If the kill was based on case two, then (no offense), but I think Ice and Z would be better targets than LadyG. She's in the top three, but the first one? Maybe maybe not

If it's based on case two, then we have a fairly weak witch team and we could confidently go forward with that list as a base.

If it's based on case 3, then we have a very powerful witch team and the three on that list are mostly innocent. That would lead me to suspect Zsand as a leading witch. The other potential witches (IMHO) aren't quite up to that serious misdirection on turn 1. They're leaving a lot of good players up and running.


Personally, I'm leaning toward case 1 with case three a close second. I'm curious as to others thoughts.

Ok I give you credit for trying to catagorize these scenarios but I can think of many more that are just as likely.
4) The Witches thought she was a PR.
5) They just wanted her gone because she was the highest poster
etc.

I'm flattered that you would peg me as the leader, but I was Don in a previous game and it didn't work out well for us.

 

[ZSandmann]

I still do not have a strong opinion on anyone. I am very tempted to burn myself because I don't feel I am being any help to the town at all this round. It could be my new allergy medicine making my brain so fuzzy, or it could be just that nobody has managed to set off any bells yet for me.

I was very surprised to see Lady G killed off. I think this means 1 of 2 things...

1) The witches assumed the herbalist would be protecting one of the usual suspects who gets killed off fast.

2) The usual suspects who get killed off fast are all witches so they took out someone they felt would be a threat.

I guess there is a 3rd reason as well. Maybe they want us to give more thought to her lists and theories. I personally don't think the spell things are really clues, but they may want us to believe they are because they don't hint at any of them and Lady G seemed to be pushing them very hard.

I'm thinking Ogre, Z, CS, Ice and DD are going to be the people I will be watching most closely today, however, I don't trust anyone and on a scale of 1-10 (10 being innocent) I'd have these five as 3's with everyone else at 4's =/

Lol, Swayde, Rb didn't tell you it was 12 Witches against you? :grinno:

 

[Swayde]

I don't understand the phrase I bolded above, I think "or" should be "of" but just wanted to know if you could clarify that for me.


Ok I give you credit for trying to catagorize these scenarios but I can think of many more that are just as likely.
4) The Witches thought she was a PR.
5) They just wanted her gone because she was the highest poster
etc.

I'm flattered that you would peg me as the leader, but I was Don in a previous game and it didn't work out well for us.

They could have very well thought she was a PR. I didnt' even consider that possibility.