Mafia 34-Time Crisis(the Play)

[IceH2O]

Didn't you say last night that you thought the only ones left were the turn and the Sniper? Now you're counting 2 left? How'd you come to that number?

I never said that, find me the post.

I've been going on the thought of 5 terrorists total including the sniper. 3 are now gone which leaves 2.

 

[Madcrawdad]

There are 15 players left and most likely only 2 terrorists left. They can't tie us. All we will be doing if we lynch innocents is help them narrow down the numbers.

I can see both sides of this...

Fortunately with the sniper gone, the terrorists only get 1 hit per night. That means with 7 more nights there would be 7 more hits. With a likely 13 v 2 (or I could maybe see 12 v 3) the terrorists would still randomly have a slightly greater than 50% chance of taking out the bomb carrier if there were no lynches... that's almost just relying on a coin-flip for the town to win.

If the doc were to step in and foil a hit, the odds could go down a little.

 

[dirtydawg10]

Ok Jpap and Dawg...Since its such a bad idea are you 2 willing to be the lynches? Are you afraid we won't pull the tie for you guys?Afraid you won't be able to control the lynches?

As it stands if I were to vote it would be for one of you.

I think we learned much more from what went down tonight than if we left it tied up with your vote switch. If you think I am evil vote for me but I'm not going to make a suicide pact. I still don't think that type of play helps the town.

 

[IceH2O]

I don't think the terrorists sent in any investigations it only being night 2 so the sniper can't be communicating with them. So if tallys are correct on a 5 player team including the sniper we are looking for 2 terrorists,one which was turned, and a lone sniper.

You must mean this post from this morning.

I said 2 terrorists, one of which was turned and a lone sniper. thats 3 terrorists.

 

[Hooked Newbie]

Thanks terrorists for doing all the work for us :grinyes:



Most obviously a clue pointing to dawg. But remember that the terrorists CAN alter parts of the newsflash.





It was all based off of the first day when you questioned dawg I believe about why he had both Ice and Chill on his list. It was a rather defensive post IMO. Then you continued to not say much (I know about your work issue) and not really get in the middle of anything. Obviously things changed when new info came up and when remembered that BH voted for you I figured that I would drop you down from my suspect list. What are your feelings on me DD? From what I remember you voted for me night one but haven't mentioned me since except when I talk about you???

I thought that too. It'd be too easy for them to setup the deciding voter though. Unless it's a reference to Cat possibly under an Alias. If it's a setup on Dawg, Ice is most probably the last. I'm not ready to vote yet, but he would have been a good turn choice and his numbers don't make sense to me right now.

 

[jpappy789]

Ok Jpap and Dawg...Since its such a bad idea are you 2 willing to be the lynches? Are you afraid we won't pull the tie for you guys?Afraid you won't be able to control the lynches?

As it stands if I were to vote it would be for one of you.

I forgot to comment on your post above so I will just answer this one. Now why would I volunteer to be the lynch? Obviously I am not advocating for people to be lynched for the heck of it, I am saying that we might as well find the terrorists. Look at the odds that have been turned upside down so to speak this round.

The sniper took out the SWAT leader night one...around a 1/16 chance depending on the terrorist numbers. (I factored in their choice for a turn)

The sniper was taken out by the terrorist team...a 1/15 chance (If my math is correct)

 

[Hooked Newbie]

You must mean this post from this morning.

I said 2 terrorists, one of which was turned and a lone sniper. thats 3 terrorists.

Ok... so you were counting a total of 3 including the sniper?

 

[IceH2O]

I can see both sides of this...

Fortunately with the sniper gone, the terrorists only get 1 hit per night. That means with 7 more nights there would be 7 more hits. With a likely 13 v 2 (or I could maybe see 12 v 3) the terrorists would still randomly have a slightly greater than 50% chance of taking out the bomb carrier if there were no lynches... that's almost just relying on a coin-flip for the town to win.

If the doc were to step in and foil a hit, the odds could go down a little.

Not really a 50% chance.If 2 terrorists and 10 innocents

Night 4-10 to 1
Night 5 -9 to 1
Night 6- 8 to 1
Night 7- 7-1
Night 8- 6-1
Night 9- 5-1
Night 10 4-1

If we lynch innocents the odds become greater.

Now I'm not saying we have to go the entire game without lynching but for now I don't see how its a bad idea. The terrorists will get ansy and out themselves IMO and then we can take them out.

 

[Dangerdoll]

Thanks terrorists for doing all the work for us :grinyes:



Most obviously a clue pointing to dawg. But remember that the terrorists CAN alter parts of the newsflash.





It was all based off of the first day when you questioned dawg I believe about why he had both Ice and Chill on his list. It was a rather defensive post IMO. Then you continued to not say much (I know about your work issue) and not really get in the middle of anything. Obviously things changed when new info came up and when remembered that BH voted for you I figured that I would drop you down from my suspect list. What are your feelings on me DD? From what I remember you voted for me night one but haven't mentioned me since except when I talk about you???

fair enough, thanks for the explanation paps

well, I haven't really thought much of you for the game since night one and have to say I thought your suspicion on me that night, because it was so seemingly heavy handed (at least to me it was) was a little bit of a try to target someone... and when you saw no one biting, I thought you felt like you had to persist because no one heard your thoughts or whatever. Did it make you evil...l wasnt and still am not sure. After that, I had the black out and a lot of thoughts went out the door for me, kinda twisted my whole thinking on the game and with work, I really didn't get the chance to really follow or watch very well... so I was trying to best go by what others thoughts on people were. But then you posted your suspicion on me again and that little nag came right back to the forefront. Sure, you also retracted the thought kinda in 1145 but still, there was that nag. I almost voted for you right after night because of it. How do I feel about you now? Well, I'll always love the paps, that'll never change but do I think you are mafia, I am still on the fence about it.

 

[dirtydawg10]

We got lucky and the Dr saved that player. How is the Dr saving a player or voting a tie any different? You're contradicting yourself.

Hows this, you think I'm a terrorist right? Vote me. I'll even OMGUS vote you back.

Don't skim now :nono:

I already said the doctor has the ability to listen in on PM's so they obviously knew something.

I said nothing about you being a terrorist, Ice (since nightfall that is). The more you go on though the more suspicious you are getting. I feel no need to acuse you of anything.