Mafia 38 "the revenge"

I already told you why they would SAVE him. Because it makes him look MORE guilty, and therefore anything he's on to will immediately be thrown out as false. Maybe they were just messing with us - like a hit that makes no sense, meant to throw confusion.

But really, seeing the way everyone has pretty much assumed guilt based on what the MAFIA did... doesn't that make you nervous? It makes me nervous.

Why on EARTH would the mafia save him, if he was one of their own? All that does is make him look more suspicious, he would be SURE to be voted the very next night. And then anything he said also goes out the window, any names he named, etc. It all protects whoever was on his list quite nicely.
 
Chill said:
Careful NJ this line of thought will have someone rushing in to say you're my partner.

If this is deep play it's very deep. I can't see any advantage in framing me and I'm looking very hard.
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Well, either your innocent and you deserve the benefit of the doubt or at least a hard look at what's happened... or again, are you acting guilty? You might use caution too, this is one of those posts that "could be used against you" in a mob of law.

I hate being conned right now, people were attempting to throw suspicion on Jpap (who never raised a blip on my meter), and now I feel like I'm being manipulated in a vote that's SO "certain" could it actually BE certain... That's the question, and also, are you perhaps a different team.

That's what I'll be watching for. I think Narwhal's Ten Reasons spelled out a similar logic to what I'm saying (it would be a bad move for the same team.) I think Ogre is also right, that the outcome could be we have One down on one team, and the other team to go, and one may have tried to set you up, not knowing that you aren't actually an innocent, because you could be on the other mafia team.

Here's where today will get interesting. Course, the outcome of a Night With Bala is always interesting. :P
 
NJ, it really doesn't matter. It's one of those, "At this point, we have to know" things. If we don't lynch chill and take out someone else, then we will forever be wondering if he really was mafia or whatever.

I can see where you're coming from, but I think everyone here has been mafia and these kinds of plans don't really work in my experience. The innocents are always doing something to screw up those deep, twisted plans.

I think they were trying to save chill. It didn't cost them anything, the other team mate is still hidden. They might as well use the blackmail then instead of some random night... wait, doesn't the blackmail have to go in really early in the day? That might invalidate everything... including chill's guilt.

If the blackmail had to be sent in really early, then the mafia just picked someone. It might have been someone on chill, but it might not have been.

OK, nevermind, there were already 3 votes on chill when Ice mentioned the blackmail. whew.
 
Hooked Newbie said:
To your first point, if Chill were innocent why would they bother saving him? They wouldn't. They would have gained 2 last night. They actively SAVED him.

To your second... that was me and I think you knew that when typing this up. So just to be perfectly clear, as soon as I read that Chill had been saved and we lost our Doc, my finger found the "button".
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I can think of one scenario. It would be very devious nigh on brilliant. Sort of the callibre you might be capable of. I'm not asking anyone to change their vote just to consider this for tomorrow.

You could be the blackmailer. Saving me puts you in a three way tie but there's no risk as the rules are no lynch on a tie. (Obviously you couldn't know Ice would miss the rule.) No one would ever believe you were mafia after that. Sure I get saved but it's only for 1 night. No risk to your team last night and you get a hit and take out Pix. No risk tonight and you get another try at a hit. Whatever happens with me you're looking good till the end of the game. If I'm the other team perfect you can point the finger at anyone who didn't jump on with you. If I'm innocent you can say wow he sure looked guilty.

If you were RB's partner the odds would be against you but this would certainly improve those odds by diverting suspicion.
 
[AC] narwhal;1534179 said:
Ok Ogre here is my train of thought on this.
First Ice said the blackmail went to the mafia.
Second at nightfall chill gets saved by it.
Third my thought is there are 2 mafia teams of 2 players at the start. Forth RB is a dead mafia leaving 1 mafia player all alone.
Fifth there is a second team with 2 players still.
Sixth once again chill saved by the blackmail.
Seventh the lone mafia wouldnt know the other 2 mafia.
Eightth This means the lone mafia wouldn't know to save chill
ninth this means it would have to have been his teammate
tenth I may not be right that is the don but close enough
eleventh that means we found both teams IMO

there is my train of thought if you have any more questions please ask




As for distancing from Z wouldn't that be a little TOO obvious?
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This exactly what I said Yesterday, RBs New School only has one player left. Old school has two, if chill is Mafia he was saved by the Blackmailer who would have to be on his team or I can't see why the Blackmailer would take the risk.

Copy Cat.
 
Chill said:
I can think of one scenario. It would be very devious nigh on brilliant. Sort of the callibre you might be capable of. I'm not asking anyone to change their vote just to consider this for tomorrow.

You could be the blackmailer. Saving me puts you in a three way tie but there's no risk as the rules are no lynch on a tie. (Obviously you couldn't know Ice would miss the rule.) No one would ever believe you were mafia after that. Sure I get saved but it's only for 1 night. No risk to your team last night and you get a hit and take out Pix. No risk tonight and you get another try at a hit. Whatever happens with me you're looking good till the end of the game. If I'm the other team perfect you can point the finger at anyone who didn't jump on with you. If I'm innocent you can say wow he sure looked guilty.

If you were RB's partner the odds would be against you but this would certainly improve those odds by diverting suspicion.
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Very good try and I give you loads of credit for your creative writing abilities. If I were mafia and the blackmailer, I would have wanted one less person around and would have let you swing unless you were my teammate.
 
ooh be careful you don't want anyone thinking we're team mates

I just want to state now clearly for the record, if it should turn out that I am old school mafia, Hook is not my team mate, he may be new school mafia but he ain't any team mate of mine. I think he learned his trade at RB's knee.
 
OK, so RB is a Don and gone. Chill is mafia and gone. Who are the next two most likely candidates?

NJ's 'defense' of chill has me slightly concerned. Z seems to be looking more and more mafia to me.

That's my list.
 
Oh good Lord people. Ogre you have the wrong read my friend. I tried going a little Probablistic to figure out the teams but since that seems to make me more Mafia than when I did nothing I guess I'll just sit around and await my fate.

My guess: RB picked a lady for his Henchperson.
Chill + Narwhal: Old School.
 
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