Sorry for not being around much yesterday. I did keep my eye on the board during break from my D&D game, but there didn't seem to be too much going on, so I didn't find it imperative to post.
After the last nightfall, I decided it would be best to toss out all my previous notions, and start again...
To me, it seems there are two teams forming: Ogre and Dawg, and Rb and LG. And the rest of us are being pulled in both directions.
Ogre's explanation of his previous conclusions (finally) because of the list make sense, in a way. It explains why he acted the way he did, and why he switched. I am still a bit pissed about the voting switching, and I don't think he handled the whole thing to the best of his abilities. However, I do believe he is sincere. That is a pretty ridiculous and confusing story to make up, and I don't think the madman would try to pull something like that, which could easily backfire. Furthermore, the posts by jpap mentioning that he may have made some errors, etc...have confirmed my position on Ogre.
That being said, here are my positions on everyone:
Ogre: I think Ogre is innocent, and is being sincere in his posts. I had originally believed him to be sincere, and I never had any suspicions about him until he did the vote swap on me. However, I see his reasoning now; so he is once against innocent. I believe he is the bellhop.
Dawg: I also believe Dawg is innocent. Dawg has never given me any reason for suspicion. I also suspect that Dawg is the detective.
Lucky: I once again believe in Lucky's innocence. I really believe he was just a confused newb. His posts about not knowing who to believe sound like a very sincere innocent to me- since I was feeling exactly the same way right after nightfall before I started rethinking this.
I am unsure of both Rich & Eddie. I think one of them has to be the accomplice. Rich has been both more helpful and less defensive, so I am leaning toward Rich being innocent and Eddie being the accomplice.
Given my belief in Dawg's innocence, and Ogre's list...I would have to suspect Lady G as an accomplice. And I clearly ruled her out too quickly, originally, due to her lack of posting.
Rb: I originally had suspicions about Rb. And they continue to grow. While he posts often, his posts aren't very helpful or full of theories. And he doesn't seem to be trying to solve this at all. Also, given my above beliefs listed above, Rb is the obvious choice.
Therefore, I vote to banish Rb!