Mafia #48 - Blarney Castle

jpappy789 said:
Anyways, anyone have good ideas as to how to use the shamrock? I don't see any clear cut ways to avoid chancing it...
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I really don't want it.

Maybe someone can volunteer to take it. There is a 50/50 chance it even does something and then a 50/50 chance it turns someone or makes their vote double.

I think what ever you do, you should tell the town what has been done.

I also wonder how it fits in the order of events.
 
Either me or my partner will definitely let the town know, no reason not to.

But with the number of innocents left compared to the leps our guess isn't any better than what Dawg rolls.

8 people left and Lucky seems to be going tonight pending a major breakthrough.

Scenario #1: Lucky is the last evil and shamrock turns an innocent, so probably the game would be done. Even if the game continues (which depends on the order of things) we know that the person turned HAS to be the last one left. Game over again as we outnumber the leps heavily.

Scenario #2: Lucky is innocent and shamrock turns innocent. We now have 2 leps and possibly lose 2 innocents that night. We would know that the person given it was an innocent turned evil because if they were evil in the first place and the shamrock was given to them the game would be over. However, that would be a waste of the shamrock and just give the last lep a chance to kill off more innocents, and we would still need to find the last one.

Scenario #3: Lucky is innocent and shamrock turns evil. Another ideal situation.

I think the best bet would be sure on Lucky so the shamrock doesn't even come into play.
 
jpappy789 said:
Has anyone considered the fact that no hit last night was because all the communicating leps were gone thus we in fact are looking for the lone lep???
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yep, been running thru my head all day.

jpappy789 said:
I think the best bet would be sure on Lucky so the shamrock doesn't even come into play.
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I agree
 
I agree holding the shamrock and getting this right tonight would be the best scenario.

Lucky and Opi both work for me. I think we have to assume it is the lone evil since two nights without any hit makes no sense.

I vote to lynch Lucky.

I am traveling tomorrow and don't want to risk a repeat of last game and not get back in time to vote.
 
I keep thinking there are 2 left.

There is only one left.

My guess is that there are no more hits and it is the lone evil left.

I am going to look at the order of events, but I bet the towns lynch comes before the hit. So if DD had a hit and she was all alone, there would be no hit. I was leaning her towards being the lone evil because I just can't see her not making sure if the hit was in. Pix8r was the King, so maybe they thought he was putting a hit in.

The no hits for 2 nights is driving me nuts.
 
I just don't want the shamrock to go random. How about give the shamrock to Lucky and we lynch Opi or the other way around.
 
With the votes already on Lucky might as well go that way. Opi seems like the best candidate for the shamrock anyways as she is #2 on the majority of the lists.

It's 7-1 and since I'm fairly sure the hits are gone we have some rooms for error, but not much. I guess we might as well clear the suspect pool while we can.
 
I think you should give it to either Lucky or Opi. The town lynches the other.

If the game lasts another day then we lynch who ever you gave the shamrock to.

If the person we lynch comes up innocent and the game is still going on then we will know that there are 2 evils, the person that was changed and then one other. My guess is that the evil left is the lone evil and that there are no more hits.

Once jpap confirms who the bartender is, then there will be 3 proven innocents and Ice. Worse case Ice is the lone evil and it will be 3 vs 1.

With no hits, this game is as good as over. The lone evil should just give up.
 
I vote to lynch lucky
 
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