Mafia #53.5 Rock the Vote

[jm1212]

So since no-one has voted since that means the next person to vote counts double?

What if you change your vote- does your change vote count double- or is it only the first NEW person to vote who will count double?

we will have to see what JL says.

why? are you planning on using his vote to try to make a tie?

 

[FireDancer7905]

I vote to lynch Jpappy.

TRS's vote is mine, right?

 

[Wycco]

Two observations:

1) Statistical observation:
If you're innocent and someone votes to lynch you on day one that would mean that person is statistically more likely to be a mafia than any other random person. Why?

Consider this scenario... 3 mafs 8 innocents.
When an innocent votes (assuming it's a random vote)- it means there is a 10% chance an innocent will vote for you.

When a mafioso votes- he will presumably ignore the 2 mafs and pick one of the 8 innocents meaning there is a 1/8 chance or 12.5% chance he will pick you.

Therefore- even if votes are all random- if someone votes for you and you're innocent there is a slightly greater chance that the person who voted for you is guilty than any of the other people.

So, yes, OMGUS votes do have a factual basis to them... LOL...

Now, we all know votes ARN'T random- so presuming guilty people sound more guilty than innocent people- getting a vote from someone would further skew them to being more likely to be guilty.

Therefore, I conclude that OMGUS votes are a legitimate way to play the game! At least in round one.



2)
I got so lost in explaining my silly point 1 that I forgot what I was going to say for comment #2.

 

[FireDancer7905]

Had a great time with friends last night, my head is recovering and I will read thoroughly and update my vote when I get a better handle on the day.

 

[plantling]

Well I went back and found that Luvbugz also mentioned the votes on Zaffy, so it wasn't just a couple (JP and myself) that did. I haven't reread the whole thread to see if anyone else did, but why didn't you, Zaffy after DD questioned you? Is there a reason you don't want to be associated with Luvbugz?

Zaffy, perhaps you didn't see my posts asking you about this? Once DD called you out on your saying several ppl also questioned the votes on you, did you go back and check if it was just Jpap and myself? I would have if I were u. And I did go back just b/c I too thought there were more than just us two. And I found the post where Luvbugz also mentioned the votes on you. When you answered DD you used rum as an excuse but did not mention that Luv also commented on the votes. So I ask again, Zaffy, is there a reason why you don't want to be associated w/Luv?

Holy Cow... That's pretty convincing voting going on. Someone guessed earlier there are 8 mafia? With not many people left to vote- that means that unless some mafia have also voted for LB- just about every innocent has voted for her...

... are innocents usually so unanimous?

I'm not so sure, Wycco. Mafia have and will vote their own, especially if it's deemed their own is going down.

 

[Wycco]

why? are you planning on using his vote to try to make a tie?

I'm ALWAYS considering changing my vote... I've been thinking LB is guilty- and no I'm not trying to protect her- but I'm amazed at how much she has a lead and can't believe that everyone can be so unanimous...

That said, as you said, still a while to go right- EOD tomorrow is the cut-off right?

I may consider switching my vote- of Jpap, Zaffy and LB I think all three are guilty- but of the three she is least likely mafia- imo...

 

[IceH2O]

g/o Hey G it's nice to see you on again g/o

Well after thinking about it over night I think this train on Luv could be a bad thing for the town. I can see the merits for voting Luv, for sure. My only concern is that we focus all our attention on Luv and let the other scum get away. If we all vote for Luv this will give the mafia an easy place to hide their vote and the town won't learn much from the process.

So for now...

I vote to lynch Zaffy

This vote is because of their vote after nightfall which says they have a hard time seeing a case for voting Luv. A blind man could make a case for Luv in this one. I have a hard time that they have a hard time voting for Luv.

I'm also open to voting for Zaf and Jpap at this point.

I have to agree here. Anyone that claims they can't see a case for Luv is either mafia protecting mafia or mafia knowing Luv is innocent and trying to get on her good side or making it look like they wouldn't lynch an innocent player. Which brings me to my next pulled quote.

I can't believe that the doctor/kashta got lynched! that really sucks. I knew that the train on Kashta was not a good thing. I need to review the whole Bugz/kashta thing and see where my thoughts lie now that we know kashta was the doctor! losing the doc and a townie on night one is not a good start to the game.

G!!!! Good to see ya girl! :grinyes:

I like that Knew was underlined. You couldn't KNOW Kash was innocent unless you knew she wasn't on your team.

So, since Ice wasn't hit, he would be my next choice for being mafia.

That line was tried last game, was wrong then and is wrong now. Kash tried pulling it last game, I got her lynched,she was innocent. I haven't gotten any feeling you are mafia so I'm going to let it slide.

So since no-one has voted since that means the next person to vote counts double?

What if you change your vote- does your change vote count double- or is it only the first NEW person to vote who will count double?

I think Noodles posting next automatically doubles her vote.


For now because I agree with Dawg that this shouldn't be a 1 man race

I retract my vote on Luv and vote to lynch Noodles

Still have Luv as mafia but less so then the split second after night fall reaction. Others have posted things that make me go hmmm.

Jpap hasn't been really playing his normal indepth game I'm used to so I could see him being mafia.

Zaffy, falls under the same umbrella as Noodles. He didn't say knew but to be able to sufficiently say such and such is innocent this early in the game is bothersome. If a vote is needed on Zaffy I have no problem switching.

Lady G is another I'm watching, not because she just appeared while hiding though it would be a good mafia plan to lay low the 1st night but because she made the claim that the Luv/Kash thing didn't look right or something to that effect (didn't pull the quote so its not a verbatim quote).

 

[Zaffy]

Holy Cow... That's pretty convincing voting going on. Someone guessed earlier there are 8 mafia? With not many people left to vote- that means that unless some mafia have also voted for LB- just about every innocent has voted for her...

... are innocents usually so unanimous?

There's a social phenomenon called Groupthink which is characterized by members of a group "going with the flow" in order to minimize conflict. Its not likely that innocents would all vote so unanimously, but it is possible. What I see happening here is people are certainly "... reach[ing] consensus without critically testing, analyzing, and evaluating ideas." That's why I question the train on Luvbugz. I do think she's suspicious, but not any more than Kashta was. My current vote is mainly in order to get rocker talking, which I fear is a dead end. He's continued to blow off the direct accusations and avoid making any substantial statement.

You can read about it here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink

 

[Wycco]

Zaffy, perhaps you didn't see my posts asking you about this? Once DD called you out on your saying several ppl also questioned the votes on you, did you go back and check if it was just Jpap and myself? I would have if I were u. And I did go back just b/c I too thought there were more than just us two. And I found the post where Luvbugz also mentioned the votes on you. When you answered DD you used rum as an excuse but did not mention that Luv also commented on the votes. So I ask again, Zaffy, is there a reason why you don't want to be associated w/Luv?


I'm not so sure, Wycco. Mafia have and will vote their own, especially if it's deemed their own is going down.

I suppose that is a good point- so even if mafia are voting for her doesn't make her innocent.

 

[jm1212]

I vote to lynch Jpappy.

TRS's vote is mine, right?

i believe so.