Mafia 54:Vampires Return (The Play)

[Coler]

CUT
The case against Annie. Ogre told us to investigate Coler and Annie- I think this was calculated- that one is guilty and one was innocent. (I posted on this yesterday)- I doubt he would have fed us two innocents or two guilty names. They've been making a conscious effort to smear each other to maintain distance.

Yeah...this is worth thinking on...they will almost always come up at least one team mate on their lists.

I think keeping an eye out for whoever is the turn while focusing on who is likely to be the LV makes good sense.

What I am getting queasy about now is that in a unanimous vote for Zaffy, even if he is a vampire, the other vampire is of course buried in the town votes. Obviously if Zaffy is LV then that doesn't matter. If Zaffy is not LV or even a vampire then we are really making a mess of this end game.

Is Zaffy right when he says that JM voting ZS saved JM as much as it saved Zaffy ? I will go check...

 

[Coler]

Does the hunter want to speak up it could really help this out?

I tend to agree with this - and there is absolutely no additional exposure or loss to the town now that the shot has been taken.

 

[Coler]

Yes Coler needs to be looked at. He's been a big help, but notice how many times his statements needed correcting. Everyone makes honest mistakes.. but that's all it takes to cover up something you don't want looked at.

(off topic)

possibly most % bs per words used in a short post all game.

 

[Coler]

I posted that yesterday, and at the time it was true. At the time, it was impossible for Zaff to have been the lead vamp. He was either turned that night, turned today, or is innocent.

I highly doubt anyone would turn him as he's prime lynch bait. So vamp or not, it doesn't make sense to lynch him.

I am still trying to figure out who are better suspects.

Coler - Had he been turned in the last few moves and given the LV and turned Wycco himself (or vise versa) we are in big trouble.

Annie - Very chatty, nothing specific, but getting a word in on every topic.

Wycco - Obvious turn candidate, doubt he's the LV, but not positive.

I'm worried at this point, rooting out the LV could be a guessing game.

The him referred to in the bolded bit of this quote is Zaffy. So...lami...you say there are better suspects than Zaffy...eh including Wycco and me.

Anyway main thing is you reckon Zaffy ain't the man for you as a vampire. Fair 'nuff, move on.

The thing is, if Ogre is a vampire (pretty much a given)

and JM is a vampire (I'm pretty confident)

That means Zaffy wasn't.

I can't except that reality.

Just show me why it must be that if Ogre and JM are vampires Zaffy 'wasn't'.

 

[Wycco]

The one thing that the hunter revealing himself will prove is one more person who is an innocent. I don't think it's really something someone would lie about because they know it can be investigated.

Knowing who the hunter is will remove one more person from the suspect list and we really need that list whittling down now.


Lam's change of heart over night regarding Zaffy is pretty bad looking- as is the fact IF Zaffy comes out guilty tonight that Lam is the only one who has half-heartedly protected him.

The fact that more of an attempt by anyone to protect Zaffy, as I mentioned above- and as Coler has stated, has happened makes Zaffy look a less confident target.

Zaffy would be one of my three main suspects- but I'm nowhere near as confident about him as I was JM.

 

[Zaffy]

Some food for thought.

Why would I make a good LV?

What have qualities have I displayed that would make me a good choice to hang the game on?

I'll be back after work.

 

[Wycco]

Zaff, I'm not going to debate if you'd be a good LV or not... that's not really relevant. It is not relevant...

...BECAUSE of yesterday.

We knew Ogre was guilty due to investigation. JM was a very strong suspect and looked likely to be lynched the next day. (as it turned out the Hunter stuck an arrow in him).

There were three vampires before the night phase yesterday.

Ogre, JM, + one other as of yet unidentified. If either Ogre or JM were the lead vampire- knowing their time was coming to an end they would pass on their lead role- but to whom? Not to each other- they knew they were about to be killed- it would be the third vampire who would receive the lead vampire mantle. Whoever was the third vampire going into last night is the lead vampire now. Regardless of ability- it was the only vampire that they could choose to give it to and not have the game end within 24 hours.

If that third vampire was you- you are lead vampire now. If it was someone else- that other person is lead vampire.



I'm not ruling out that that third vampire could be someone else though- and the town should not just assume we've got out last suspect- we need to keep on this and look at other possible suspects on the off-chance Zaffy is innocent.

 

[lanimret]

Just show me why it must be that if Ogre and JM are vampires Zaffy 'wasn't'.

Seriously, are you guys not even reading my posts? I proved it point by point.

I'm not happy about switching, but I simply made a logical conclusion by looking at the math and it is impossible for Zaff to have been a vamp before JL was lynched IMPOSSIBLE

I'm not saying unlikely, I'm not saying i have a hunch, I'm saying it is IMPOSSIBLE.

The fact that you guys are flat out ignoring this, and are either ignoring my post or pretending it doesn't exist is really disturbing me. I will requote my post, maybe this time you will read it.

 

[lanimret]

No one responded to my logic. That is kind of odd? I think it was pretty definitive. If I'm missing someone I'd really appreciate someone responding so I can make my vote. I don't want to vote until this is cleared up.


First we exposed JL that left 2 vamps + a new turn.

Quote:
JL is dead and a lesser vampire

This means JL was a turn correct? (I can't find that in the rules)

The turn ended up being dog who died, so only 2 vamps still.

Then we chose zsand, not a vamp, still numbers 2

Quote:
The vampires search out their next victim. They are careful this time and the bite is perfect.

Ok, back to 3, two vamps and 1 turn (lesser vamp)


Quote:
Ogre was a vampire
1 vamp, 1 turn


Quote:
They find their next victim feeling good about the past days events sitting in a field next to a camp fire.

Their bite nets them another player.
1 vamp, 2 turns


Quote:
Jm was a vampire
2 turns

so, if I count correctly, there are actually 2 turns (lesser vamps) remaining, which means one of them, after being turned had to be given the LV.

Would they really pick Zaffy? That seems unreasonable. Before JL died it is impossible that he (zaffy) was a vamp.

Could he be a turn? Maybe

Could he be the lead vamp? I don't see that as likely.

Unless that whole lesser vampire thing just confused the crap out of me.

Please actually read it this time and point out where I'm wrong, because I don't see it. This is as strong a fact as we've had at any point during this game and you guys are ignoring it completely.

 

[Wycco]

Lam- it is possible:

Ogre LV-
JL First pick

Day one:
DD lynched (innocent)
JPap end of day one pick

Day two:
Noodles lynched (innocent)
Zaffy end of day two pick...

Day three:
RB Killed
JPap lynched.

Day four:
JL Lynched.
Dawg Killed.

Day five:
ZSand Lynched
new vamp JM.

Day Six:
Ogre Killed
JM Killed.
new vamp???

Day 7:
Zaffy Killed???





See- perfectly possible Zaffy was a vampire since before JL was lynched.