Mafia 54:Vampires Return (The Play)

[Coler]

OK... I said it would be interesting to see the last steps in JPap Vs Rich

Starting off with JPap leading votes 6 to 4.

ZSand made it a tie by switching an earlier vote on JPap to Rich. 5 vs 5. Suspicious dunno?
Coler placed a vote on rich making it 5 vs 6. Suspicious dunno?everything can be suspicious - I was working rich as a named (on my part) suspect though
Kash placed a vote on rich making it 5 vs 7. Kash is innocent. I take Kashta as innocent as well
Annie made it 6 vs 7. Distancing thinking he was safe? Dunno?neither do I but if annie is one of two remaining vampires I've made a real pigs ear of this game
Rich made it 7 vs 7. rich would imo be entitled to save himself but I think he saw the reaction against zaffy for doing so and elected not to. Rich of course now a known innocent
Dawg dropped his vote on Rich making it 7 vs 6. dawg = known innocent
Then Rich dropped his vote on Jpap tying it up at 6 vs 6. I genuinely am inclined to think that this really really screwed it up for the vampires. Bear in mind that JL is still on jpap at this stage. If they wanted to save him he could have been saved


I don't know if any of those steps are significant or not.

Just a couple of comments of mine in blue

 

[rocker92]

game off/ i feel like the vampires are after me now, last night around 10:30 i heard a something crash into the blinds on the window not 1 foot from my left, i look, and i see 2 little legs, can you figure out what it was? it was a bat!

holy crap, a bat in the house, my dad and i killed it with a blanket and threw it out side!
/game on!

BTW: in case i dont get back here today,

I vote to lynch Zaffy.

 

[rich311k]

For right now I vote to stick a stake in JM. He has been on my list for a while.

 

[Coler]

game off/ i feel like the vampires are after me now, last night around 10:30 i heard a something crash into the blinds on the window not 1 foot from my left, i look, and i see 2 little legs, can you figure out what it was? it was a bat!

holy crap, a bat in the house, my dad and i killed it with a blanket and threw it out side!
/game on!

BTW: in case i dont get back here today,

I vote to lynch Zaffy.

ehhhhhhhh..why ?

 

[OgreMkV]

Sorry Kash, meant to quote the post below

Explain what you mean.

It just makes me nervous when people vote the way I do, right after I do with no explanation.

I think this post by coler sums up pretty well that there is, up to this point, no evidence to suggest I am a vampire. I think everyone agrees that my move to save my own skin was a questionable move. I believe that it was justified, others disagree. So, now Ogre makes a post outlining my possible scuminess. Click the arrow in the quote to see what he quoted from me. I've been accused of anti-town behavior for not releasing my suspect list, I then did, I've tried to answer any questions as thoroughly and honestly as possible, including this one.

I said earlier that the note was unknown, but since you've posted this I'll come out. I told a little white lie. I also think Lani has the list. His turn around on his strategy is somewhat telling. The fact that he names me as a strong suspect I think is there to squash the scent. I believe that JL also knew that Lani has the list. He makes 2 quotes alluding to the fact that Lani may come out with it. However, Lani was away for his birthday this weekend so he never posted corroborating wyccos story. Unfortunately this poses a dilemma for the priest now, two power roles are revealed (assuming you, I, and JL are right about lani holding the list).

I digress,

Ogres first point I think can best be dealt with my Colers response and that it seems generally accepted that my move was to save my own skin. My own logic there can be applied to ether side. So at best that's not telling in either direction.

Ogres 2nd point, I voted for someone who turned out to be a vampire. This could be seen as distancing. My vote happened at (438), at that time the other votes on Jpap were Noodles (400), and RB(402). The votes against Noodles were: Rocker(416). So, noodles was not yet a foregone conclusion, in fact my vote gave Jpap a 2 vote lead at the time.

Ogres 3rd point, I voted rich. His antics the previous evening did not sit well with me, so I voted for him.

So, While none of these facts exonorate me fully, I think that they show that there is not much in the way of evidence to condemn me. I know I've used words that a 5 year old may not comprehend, but I trust that you're smarter than a 5 year old.

If there's anything else specific you'd like for me to answer please let me know. Or if there is anything here that's not clear.

Zaffy, I find your comment about 5 year vocabulary somewhat offensive.

Like you said, none of those facts exonerate you and none of them, taken in isolation, would establish your vampirishness.

However, I take all of those things together and imply that you could be a vampire...

SNIP
I'm presently happy with my vote to lynch jm but I welcome & appreciate thoughts & comments.

Coler, quick question. Does this analysis assume that JM was a vamp all along?

We're still missing the LV. If that was Jpap, then part of your analysis doesn't work because John was the first turn, right? So JM would have been a later turn and his stuff at the beginning would have been innocent comments.

 

[Zaffy]

...

Zaffy, I find your comment about 5 year vocabulary somewhat offensive.

...

I'm sorry for that, I in no way mean to imply anyone is a 5-year old or has the comprehension skills of one. Annie asked if I could explain it as I were talking to a 5-year old. That was my lame excuse at addressing that part of his request.

 

[rocker92]

i always suspect zaf, that vote is subject to change.

 

[Coler]

SNIPLIKEWISE

Coler, quick question. Does this analysis assume that JM was a vamp all along?

We're still missing the LV. If that was Jpap, then part of your analysis doesn't work because John was the first turn, right? So JM would have been a later turn and his stuff at the beginning would have been innocent comments.

You have highlighted something which I have been pondering. Yes, my analysis on the posts by JM does presume JM is vamp from D1.

Check the nightfall sequence :

Lynching

Vampire Bite

Hunter

Seer

And of course D1 and D2 are guaranteed turns by vampire bite.

Wycco investigated JL and found evil but this could have been that he was the initial lead vampire - and that of course he passed on the baton last night, being well aware of his impending lynch - or that he was the LV's choice. Either way, there is room for JM as being the other D1 vampire whether he picked JL or JL picked JM as the seer investigates after the turn.

You ask what if the LV was pappy - I don't get where we have anything to go on that pappy was in fact LV.

CUT

I AM THE SEER!!!!!!!!!!

John L. was found guilty from investigation on day 1.
R Bishop was found innocent on day 2.
Kashta was found innocent on day 3.

^ above bolded by me.

Just turning back to the D4 list - the way I read the rules strictly is that you are on it if you were investigated but subsequently turned. That's based on the first sentence of the relevant rule quoted in full here :

**on Day 4 a random player gets a list of players previously investigated that have been turned. It will only show evil, not the role. This could include the Lead Vamp if he is investigated in the 1st 2 days

However...the second sentence seems to say the LV could be on the list if investigated and would show evil but not the role. This seems confused as the LV could never fulfil the criteria in the first sentence of players that have been 'previously investigated that have been turned'.

What this says to me in any event is that JL could not have been on the D4 list...because he could not have been 'previously investigated' and then turned following investigation - Wycco got him on D1 and the turn happens before the first investigation. That is if the list is as I am reading it a list of players who were investigated by the seer and then subsequently turned.

In other words, the D4 list is not simply a list of players investigated plus results as per the seer. John would not be on the D4 list the way I read the rules. Wycco investigated him on D1 and found him, whether before or after turn, but he was not investigated before being turned and therefore not on the list.

I would appreciate if Ice would clarify what rule is being applied to the D4 list on this point as a matter of interest.

Why do you take jpappy as LV Ogre - just curious as to what there is to go on there.

He says John L was found guilty from investigation on day 1.

 

[Coler]

OK Ogre sorry to confuse but I just looked at my post analysis of JM - to be fair, the true hint of scumminess kicks in after N1 - starting with his flipping around on Zaffy, statement that three innocents were involved etc - so he could in fact be the third vampire and not necessarily a D1 vampire and I don't think that would invalidate the position.

 

[Coler]

Gah the line 'He says JohnL was found guilty...day 1' in post 1188 by me is a typo. I was cutting and pasting and putting my post together and should have deleted it.