I've been updating the vote talley to see what I could figure out from how the votes have fallen so far.
noodles (1) wycco 2
rich (1) nood 3
jpap (2) kash 5 rock 30
luv (3) rich 6 ogre 97 mostly 111
jl66 (2) dawg 81 bugz 100
lady (1) jl66 11
Zsand (2) DD 17 lady 28
kash (1) annie 23
annie (1) Zsand 26
mostly (1) jpappy 112
(Not certain the mod will count Rocker's "lynch" vote... but he has so far.)
Retractions:
Lady G switched from Rocker to Zsand in Post 28.
JL switched from Lady G to Wycco in Post 43.
Ogre switched from JL to Bugz in Post 97.
Bugz switched from Wycco to JL in Post 100.
MC switched from Lady G to Bugz in Post 111.
Jpappy switched from DD to MC in Post 112.
If all these are right, here's how it stands... (assuming I haven't missed something).
3 votes on Luvbugz.
2 votes on Jpap, JL, and Zsand.
1 vote on Noods, Rich, Lady G, Kashta, Annie, and Mostly.
No votes on DD, Dawg, Ogre, Rocker, and Wycco.
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Day 1 frontrunners for lynching usually turn out to be all (or mostly) innocents. If that's the case here, then we'll look harder at the second and third votes on the top 4 leading genetic test candidates (tomorrow). Those would be Rocker, Ogre, Mostly, and Lady G. We'll also look at the first votes on those people... who are me, Rich, Dawg, and DD.
Trying to work out some logic to this... good candidates for evil might also be the 5 people with no votes on them at all. The communicating evil players are the only ones who've got something to go on at this point so it's easy for them to play well and not draw votes themselves, while the rest of us are still trying to figure something out.
So.... does anyone fall into more than one of those categories? Yes. Rocker and Ogre both added their votes as a second vote (on Jpappy and Luvbugz) -- and neither of them are carrying votes themselves. Dawg and DD also placed first votes (on JL and Zsand) and also don't have votes against them.
This is sort of like trying to second-guess who the bad guys are on Day 2 AFTER the Day 1 lynch victim turns up innocent. A little premature still for that 3 hours before nightfall because I don't know yet who'll get genetically tested here or whether they're good or eveil.... but I have to do something and there's not a lot of vote switching going on yet.
I don't like my random vote on Jpappy.. because it's really just random and he's not done anything blatantly suspicious. I'm reluctant to add my vote to either of the front runners this early in because that's usually a mistake. And no one bothered to get that train going on Noodles, after all (j/k).... lol.
So.. to just pick somebody else, I've considered Rocker, Ogre, Dawg, and DD. Of those 4 names, it's kinda close between Ogre and DD... I'm out of time now ... I'll just pick one.
I retract my vote on Jpappy and vote to genetically test Ogre.
I won't be able to change this between now and nightfall. I'm not real happy about this vote either, I'm afraid... but it's the best I can come up with using the most objective logic/analysis I could figure out. So there's my vote change and my reasoning for the suspects I listed. Hope it all goes well for the town tonight.