johnlarson66
These Pandas Rock
Then the Ice must of thought Luv was on a mafia team or atleast had Luv as more mafia than Frog. (Or Frog as more innocent than Luv)
Mafia 59 - MAFIA WARS - The Play
- Thread starter dirtydawg10
- Start date
Then the Ice must of thought Luv was on a mafia team or atleast had Luv as more mafia than Frog. (Or Frog as more innocent than Luv)
johnlarson66
These Pandas Rock
Kash, if all three of us (TRS, rich, myself) are mafia - then do you think two of us are on the same team or just one from each team? Maybe all three of us are on the same team?
Well without being able to crawl into Ice's head I can't say what he really thought of Luv. But that last minute move is probably what got him Hit. Maybe Luv is a Don too?
So we have a three way tie again. This should be an interesting Night. We could have as many as three Mafia Hits Tonight as well... yikes.
Agree with both of these posts.
All of this is also true.
I've posted this before, but I'll restate this to answer JL.
As we've just been talking about, I think all 3 people voting Frog did so because each of them thought he was innocent. I honestly don't believe an innocent would have voted Frog at all with a clear conscience with the belief that he (or she) was likely mafia. And as Zsand has speculated that's possibly the reason Ice didn't vote Frog at the last minute... because he also believed (possibly) that Frog was innocent or Luv was more likely (rival) mafia. In that case, Ice would have backed off from voting Frog because it might incriminate him as mafia.
So... the fact that we know 1 of those 3 are mafia (because of the double-vote) is consistent with this theory. And so is the basic rule of thumb we have that 2 out of any 3 are likely mafia. There's still no reason not to believe (IMO) in this specific case that all 3 of these particular names aren't mafia... because they all voted Frog.
As for who's on which mafia team? I haven't the slightest idea. Each mafia individual has the same goal regardless of which mafia team they're on... to kill off their rivals and take out innocents. There's plenty enough overlap in purpose for rival mafia players to naturally vote with each other to kill a suspected innocent. That's what I think happened with JL, Rich, and TRS when voting Frog last night.
All of this is also true.
I've posted this before, but I'll restate this to answer JL.
As we've just been talking about, I think all 3 people voting Frog did so because each of them thought he was innocent. I honestly don't believe an innocent would have voted Frog at all with a clear conscience with the belief that he (or she) was likely mafia. And as Zsand has speculated that's possibly the reason Ice didn't vote Frog at the last minute... because he also believed (possibly) that Frog was innocent or Luv was more likely (rival) mafia. In that case, Ice would have backed off from voting Frog because it might incriminate him as mafia.
So... the fact that we know 1 of those 3 are mafia (because of the double-vote) is consistent with this theory. And so is the basic rule of thumb we have that 2 out of any 3 are likely mafia. There's still no reason not to believe (IMO) in this specific case that all 3 of these particular names aren't mafia... because they all voted Frog.
As for who's on which mafia team? I haven't the slightest idea. Each mafia individual has the same goal regardless of which mafia team they're on... to kill off their rivals and take out innocents. There's plenty enough overlap in purpose for rival mafia players to naturally vote with each other to kill a suspected innocent. That's what I think happened with JL, Rich, and TRS when voting Frog last night.
I voted frog simply because he was not playing right and I did not want someone to get 2 votes which I though would be in effect today not the night fall that day.
I have not decided yet who I will vote for. I am leaning TRS, JL seems to be working hard for the town at least it seems that way to me.
I have not decided yet who I will vote for. I am leaning TRS, JL seems to be working hard for the town at least it seems that way to me.
That sounds good, Rich, but look closer at the two reasons you just gave us.
1. I voted frog simply because he was not playing right -- Even if a noob is not playing right, an innocent needs to keep a fellow innocent alive. If you were innocent and you thought he was innocent, you wouldn't vote to kill him. He's your innocent teammate and the town can't afford to lose someone on their side (even if they're playing stupid).
2. I did not want someone to get 2 votes -- Likewise, if you were worried about Frog giving up 2 votes to his enemy and that was your prime concern. If he's mafia as you appear to believe by voting to lynch him.. then that double vote would have gone to an innocent player. So, you helped prevent that from happening (which is beneficial to the town) by lynching him.
No matter which way we look at this, voting Frog last night was a bad move. Ice realized that and switched off of him. And the rest of us are still figuring out all the motives and possibilities that apply to those votes.
I actually had no guess who was what when I voted for him. I figured and still do he was not helpful at all and the votes being given away could be dangerous. I think it was the best thing to do to help the town to win. Better than a random vote on RB.
johnlarson66
These Pandas Rock
With my assumption of there being only 5 innocents, I felt there was a strong possibility that Frog was mafia.
Also, lets just say someone else was lynched, who would not be voting Frog today. Frog was not helpful in any manner.
Any assumptions that an innocent would have not voted for Frog is just an assumption, not based on any facts.
I also don't think this going to a 3 way tie is good at all.
Also what has been lost in all of this - Why was Ice hit? Did someone just want to get rid of a good player or was someone afraid he was on to them? Did someone want to frame him? Did they think Ice was innocent? Did they even care?
Also, lets just say someone else was lynched, who would not be voting Frog today. Frog was not helpful in any manner.
Any assumptions that an innocent would have not voted for Frog is just an assumption, not based on any facts.
I also don't think this going to a 3 way tie is good at all.
Also what has been lost in all of this - Why was Ice hit? Did someone just want to get rid of a good player or was someone afraid he was on to them? Did someone want to frame him? Did they think Ice was innocent? Did they even care?
So what you're saying, JL.. you discount my theory that all 3 are mafia because it's based on assumption instead of facts. Then you go on to speculate about Ice's hit ... which can only be answered by us making assumptions. We don't have facts yet to indicate one thing over another.
It's like when you surmised that Ice may have switched his vote to Luv to save Frog. That doesn't actually add up, looking at the facts. But it makes you appear to be helpful because you're raising questions. The facts still aren't there so really all you're doing is blowing smoke.
johnlarson66
These Pandas Rock
The fact on Ice's hit is that either the NYC mafia or the Russian mafia hit him. Trying to figure out why they hit Ice is not blowing smoke. Yes I have assumed that Ice had some sort of reason to change his vote so close to nightfall. He might not have had a reason.
I think both Ice's switch and the hit on Ice are worth dicussing.
I also think that assuming all three of us that voted on Frog are all mafia is just not thinking at all. To place all three of us on the top of any list is just as thoughtless.
I think both Ice's switch and the hit on Ice are worth dicussing.
I also think that assuming all three of us that voted on Frog are all mafia is just not thinking at all. To place all three of us on the top of any list is just as thoughtless.
