Thanks to frog not voting at all, we have 3 good mafia leads. Here's my take on this.
1. We've all generally accepted that, given the numbers, there's a 65% or two-thirds probability that any one of us is on one of the 3 mafia teams. Stated another way this means 2 out of any 3 players are probably scum.
2. Rich, JL, and TRS are implicated now (because of Frog). The clear double-vote from one of them confirms that at least 1 of the 3 is mafia. That's consistent enough with the two-thirds thing too.
3. Apply the odds noted in #1 above to these 3 names and we should expect that at least 2 of the 3 are mafia.
4. Does this mean 1 of the names are innocent? No, it doesn't. All 3 of them could easily be mafia too. The probability stated above is only an average.. not a certainty.
As I posted before, I was leaning Frog suspicious. My impression was he (or she) was wacked out enough to ignore advice offered by possible teammates if he was mafia. Just because he was able to communicate with teammates (if evil) doesn't mean he actually communicated. But that by itself wasn't strong enough or substantial enough to vote him, IMO. The chances were too high still that he could be innocent. (Frog was a noob too.. so I still had good reason to seek a better suspect for my vote.)
It WAS substantial enough, however, for at least 1 mafia to vote Frog. So someone who is evil for sure (just not yet identified) looked at the same "evidence" I had and went the other way with it. Did they conclude that Frog was probably innocent? I think that's a good possibility too. Plus.. for anyone who WAS on a mafia team.. the simple fact that Frog wasn't a teammate of theirs would be a nice deciding factor. As long as Frog was either innocent or not on the team.. any mafia player might see Frog as a great lynch target. The chance that Frog might be innocent wouldn't deter a scum player from voting him.
At this point, I'm going with the theory that 2 out of 3 (not just 1 out of 3) of those who voted Frog last night are most suspicious right now and probably mafia. And I'm leaning the remaining 1 out of those 3 names as also "very likely" to be mafia too.
I dont have these names in any order yet so I don't know which one to vote for. Both JL and TRS stand out a bit as more obvious picks right now.. but Rich has played shifty enough to also top the list. I'll have to spend some time re-reading the posts to pin this down better. So I'll post more later as I do that.
1. We've all generally accepted that, given the numbers, there's a 65% or two-thirds probability that any one of us is on one of the 3 mafia teams. Stated another way this means 2 out of any 3 players are probably scum.
2. Rich, JL, and TRS are implicated now (because of Frog). The clear double-vote from one of them confirms that at least 1 of the 3 is mafia. That's consistent enough with the two-thirds thing too.
3. Apply the odds noted in #1 above to these 3 names and we should expect that at least 2 of the 3 are mafia.
4. Does this mean 1 of the names are innocent? No, it doesn't. All 3 of them could easily be mafia too. The probability stated above is only an average.. not a certainty.
As I posted before, I was leaning Frog suspicious. My impression was he (or she) was wacked out enough to ignore advice offered by possible teammates if he was mafia. Just because he was able to communicate with teammates (if evil) doesn't mean he actually communicated. But that by itself wasn't strong enough or substantial enough to vote him, IMO. The chances were too high still that he could be innocent. (Frog was a noob too.. so I still had good reason to seek a better suspect for my vote.)
It WAS substantial enough, however, for at least 1 mafia to vote Frog. So someone who is evil for sure (just not yet identified) looked at the same "evidence" I had and went the other way with it. Did they conclude that Frog was probably innocent? I think that's a good possibility too. Plus.. for anyone who WAS on a mafia team.. the simple fact that Frog wasn't a teammate of theirs would be a nice deciding factor. As long as Frog was either innocent or not on the team.. any mafia player might see Frog as a great lynch target. The chance that Frog might be innocent wouldn't deter a scum player from voting him.
At this point, I'm going with the theory that 2 out of 3 (not just 1 out of 3) of those who voted Frog last night are most suspicious right now and probably mafia. And I'm leaning the remaining 1 out of those 3 names as also "very likely" to be mafia too.
I dont have these names in any order yet so I don't know which one to vote for. Both JL and TRS stand out a bit as more obvious picks right now.. but Rich has played shifty enough to also top the list. I'll have to spend some time re-reading the posts to pin this down better. So I'll post more later as I do that.
But she's also left it that so I suppose she's dropped her suspicion of Jpappy in the process?
