Alright, I've been doing some thinking and here are my thoughts....
We've got 3 subsets of players to work with where we KNOW mafia exist.
- Snitch list 1
- Snitch list 2
- Voter list from Ice lynching (rb says not all voters were mafia, which implies that at least some are)
Snitch List 1
Mee-mee
Plantling
KOTD
Madcrawdad (also voted for Ice, but probably innocent, at least according to rb)
Snitch List 2
Sploke (also voted for Ice)
BKW
Jensons (also voted for Ice)
Ice Lynch Voters
Sploke (also on Snitch 2)
Ogre
Cory Lover (dead innocent)
Jensons (also on Snitch 2)
Madcrawdad (also on Snitch 1, but probably innocent, at least according to rb)
ZSandmann
JPappy
In looking at all of the names above, I'm willing to clear a few (at least for the time being).
Madcrawdad - Many players perceive me as innocent already, but RB all but confirms it with his storyline. Those who completely ignore RB's clues are mafia, in my eyes.
ZSandmann - Jumped onto the Ice lynch train very late. Late vote change is not a good idea for mafia, especially when lynching a known innocent.
Ogre - While I agree that his game has seemed a little 'off' I think he would be playing a very bold game if he were mafia. Pretty much engineered the train that lynched Ice....Once again, if he knew Ice were innocent, it's unlikely that he'd have spearheaded that particular initiative.
Cory Lover - Dead innocent
RB also says that the mafia have been running just under the surface, with no noteriety....only one that I've cleared above who would fit that is CL and he's dead.
That leaves us with the following combined list:
Mee-mee -Snitch 1
Plantling - Snitch 1
KOTD - Snitch 1
Sploke - Snitch 2 & Ice lynching
BKW - Snitch 2
Jensons - Snitch 2 & Ice lynching
JPappy - Ice lynching
We know that of those 7, at least 2 (probably more) are mafia. At least 1/3 of Mee-mee, Plantling & KOTD are mafia. At least 1/3 of Sploke, BKW & Jensons are mafia, and JPappy now also makes the combined list.
One candidate I particularly like is JPappy for mafia.
- Day 1 made a late night vote switch onto the Madcrawdad train
- Day 2 pulled his vote off of Mike when Mike quit, and then went to buy a fish tank. There was a strong push to lynch Madcrawdad that day, and pulling off of Mike was indirectly a vote for Madcrawdad. Once I called him on it, he revoted for Mike.
- Day 3 He votes for Ice at 10:13pm CDT. At 10:13pm CDT he also makes another post saying something like 'Whoa, when did Z vote for Ice? That's odd.' Not only did he point out Z's last minute vote change, but he did it all within the same minute that he posted his vote for Ice. Not much time to post, go back and read some additional posts, and then post another observation. Is it possible that JPap knew Z switched votes to Ice when he voted, but thought the statement might make more of an impact in it's own post? Keep in mind JPap's got some mafia looking voting habits (ie, usually votes late, switches votes late, etc.), so why point them out when others do it? Just a thought. Hey Z, do you know if it was your's or Jpap's vote that set the Ice train rolling? I suspect it was yours, and JPap hopped on once it was going, but can't confirm....If you don't know that's fine, just wondering.
As far as the other candidates on the combined list, unfortunately when folks barely post (KOTD, Jensons, BKW) it's hard to get any sort of read at all. People can give all the reasons they want for not posting, but not posting = not helping the town.
Looks like the Sploke train won't be leaving today, which is good, because I may not have much time to pull together an argument for that one. I really don't want to lynch someone solely based on the sometimes ambiguous word of Bala, especially with the town at stake.
Keep in mind that RB says the mafia has been running 'just under the surface' and most of the combined list fits that bill.
If anyone wants to dig into my 'combined' list of candidates, feel free...
unvote Sploke
I'm going to eat lunch and then reread a little before recasting my vote.
