Here is what we do know as far as roles go -
Physicist – three
Mafia – three
Innocent – remaining.
I doubt if it is 50/50 or if any of the game types will be 50/50.
There are three evils that may or not be able to talk. There are three innocents that may of not be able to talk. They also might be able to investigate and protect - depending on the game type for that day.
John, you seem to keep stressing certain points which I feel are totally misleading. What makes you so sure there won't be a 50/50 game in the mix? And why do you want us to think their abilities are limited to only communicating, investigating, or protecting?
1. There are a lot of other powers available in many of those games which may become realities here for us.... turning/recruitment, botched hits, blue mist, blackmailing other players, random acts, witnesses who are drunk or otherwise impaired being given false information, resurrecting dead players, etc.
2. I'm sure there have probably been exceptions, but these mafia games are typically set up with 25% to 33% of the group assigned evil roles. This game has 21 players with only 3 mafia.... that's around 14% which is an
extremely low ratio between "bad guys" and the "good guys." Common sense should tell us (at least) that somebody's going to do some recruiting... or something related to team-building formats... and pretty early in the game. Otherwise Pappy has created too much of an imbalance with this format.
3. It's very important we do know the exact number of mafia players this game starts with. It's also important that we determine if/when that number increases... and how... and by how many.
Pappy does tell us two things we haven't talked about yet that I think are important... and this doesn't support what you seem to be telling us.
Here's the first one:
SETUP
The abilities of the scum and power roles vary based on which setup each day is based on.
And here's the second one:
a. The priority of night time happenings is:
Town Lynch
Protection*
Hit*
Recruitment*
Investigation*
Untimely Deaths
*Events that are marked may not occur every night
Pappy isn't saying the role assignments will be switched around... but the role abilities will. What happens to us in this game is also going to vary according to what Pappy has told us in the sequence of nightfall events he posted.
Not wanting to be the last to post....
In a way, I think it is kind of important to identify the game so we can see what may have happened on day one. Not that it should be consuming all our time, but i feel it can lead to some paths the day will take.
Would it be too much to presume that the daily actions of this game may follow the similar daily actions of the "game" we are in for that day?
Yes, I think that's a fair statement.