By my estimation, if Hooked Newbie is innocent, then jpappy is our mafia.
It's possible that you're right, Ogre... In looking thru the 1st 2 day's votes:
On day 1 when CL came pretty close to being voted off, JPappy voted for Cory Lover earlier in the day. At some point he recalled his vote for CL (possibly when he saw CL may actually be voted off). Once it was clear that CL would stay and Nola would be voted off, JPappy re-cast the final vote of the day for Cory Lover.
On day 2 when CL was lynched, JPappy got on the Cory Lover train late, way after it was apparent that CL would go (I believe that he was 8th on the CL vote, right after King and right before Mee-mee)
Although I voted for HN tonight, something that had been bothering me when I analyzed the first 2 day's votes was that HN was 4th on the Cory Lover lynch train on day 2. Although not impossible, it's a little early to hop on to lynch one of your mafia buddies.
If enough folks are willing, I'd be willing to change to lynch JPappy tonight.