Mafia who done it! The Play

I am aware that nightfall will be tonight...
 
OgreMkV said:
Thinking out loud here. Bear with me.

RB (2) -Ice(450) Ogre(451) Ice(485)
LC (0) -Mad(498)
Mad (1) - LC(486)
HN (2) -Bkw(461) Beth(520)
Ice (3) -RB(503) HN (522) Mad(523)

OK, if Ice is innocent, then there are two innocents on rb (assuming I'm there to). With that in mind, then where are the other two innocents? And more importantly, where are the four mafia?

If Ice is innocent, then more than likely there are at least two mafia on him... if not three. That means rb, mad, and hooked are mafia... or at least two are.

Now, I really think that the mafia have split up so that if the innocents are split, then they can control the voting. We'll see a sudden surge of vote changes near the end. Whoever does that, then we can nail them... if the innocents can all get together at the end of the day.

So, say two mafia on Ice and that leaves two mafia out of either bkw, LC, and beth. I was pretty concerned about beth, but then, she says that she'll switch to rb. If that's the case, then I'm not worried. If all the innocents go to rb, then we'll have at worst a tie going into nightfall.

bkw seems more of a hit & run voter, so I'm not so sure if his vote is mafia or innocent. At this point it seems pretty useless, so hopefully it will change. Same for LC (except the hit & run part).

OK, so I move back on rb and beth moves to rb. That makes it 3-3 rb and ice with the ENTIRE CONTROL of the night falling to LC and bkw... I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that.

It's kind of funny. At this point, it all comes down to whether you believe Ice is innocent or not. I know mad thinks Ice is guilty as heck. I'm thinking that rb's vote is almost an OMGUS vote. His single defense was the line, 'if you vote for me we lose.' Which has pretty been used by every mafia in every game ever.

I vote to lynch rb again.
Click to expand...

If that is true, and that is a big if Ogre, this will be the first time the line is factual. They have used the line to stop their lynch, or have used it to stop a specific power player from going, from my records...but have never spoken it to determine a game based on innocent/mafia ratio left.
 
Ogre I'm afraid Bkw not only won't get back to switch to RB but that he seems to think RB is innocent and won't vote him today. I think its safer to stay on HN.
 
bethkira2000 said:
there is only one flaw to your thought Ogre, ICe is voting for HN not Rb now.
Click to expand...


The mafia can move repeatedly between now and night fall, Beth.

And they just may, to twist the current thoughts. The best case scenario is a 4/4 vote, all innocents on one or all mafia on one, or any combinations that result in a 4/4 split to force a coin flip for the townies.

Otherwise, they just have to be split up enough so the colonel isn't the lynch.
 
Updated as of post 535

RB 1 Ice(450)Ogre(451)Ice(485)Ogre(30)
Ice 3 RB(503)HN(522)Mad(523)
Mad 1 LC(486)
HN 3 Bkw(461) Beth(520)Ice(527)
Bkw
Beth
LC 0 Mad(498)
Ogre
 
I'm more then willing to go head to head with HN.

Just choose the one you think is mafia to vote for.
 
IceH2O said:
Updated as of post 535

RB 1 Ice(450)Ogre(451)Ice(485)Ogre(30)
Ice 3 RB(503)HN(522)Mad(523)
Mad 1 LC(486)
HN 3 Bkw(461) Beth(520)Ice(527)
Bkw
Beth
LC 0 Mad(498)
Ogre
Click to expand...

The ogre vote should read 530 not 30
 
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