Mafia #47 "Ghost Hunters"

[Opicana]

LG even said that...does Opi know that the nightfall turn didn't happen? She said that Noods dropped off her list. Why? There are 3 possible evils but you only account for two...

No, I believe there are 3. There should be 3, and didn't LG post one of those crazy messages that implied another soul left?

I dropped Noods off my list because there was only 2 evils as of last night, so the current three would not have been in cahoots.

Noods is still a possibility for the 3rd evil. But you all are....since we have no real information to go on about who the 3rd recruit was....as that would not be indicated in anyway by last nights votes.

 

[Opicana]

I see this theory as being more valid than Rich's IMO. I have pretty much always thought that mafia will want to keep around suspicious players to fill the nights lynching and keep people off of them. They like trains because they can hide but also jump a lone vote and say they just didn't feel the top vote getter was a good choice. If I am remembering the timing correctly a good chunk (the middle three?) of DD's votes came in at close to the same time, doesn't seem like something mafia would do and I'm guessing only one of those three would be mafia if at all. I wouldn't think that the first vote for her would be a mafia move, just because it is risky to stick your head out like that. Fire was the last to vote DD and I don't really know what that means at this point. I've never been able to read her mainly because her posts are kinda "fluffy"...If anything, mafia would probably only want to be on DD if the next vote getter was one of their own (JL in this case). I'm not really leaning that way, just a possibility.

Thanks, Jpap....that was much more eloquent then my explanation, but that's exactly what I mean.

Hmm...you have a good idea about one of the DD votes being a "mafia"...and you bring up some interesting points about Fire...

 

[luckydud13]

What? I have no idea what you are talking about here...honestly, I am not even sure it applies to what I said.



I agree his intentions are not necessarily good, and I am not saying he is innocent because he is a contributor...in fact, I am not even saying he is innocent...just no longer one of my top suspects...perhaps he fell from 3 to 4. I was saying that, if I were a bad guy...he is one I would want to take out early, not DD.




So? It looks to me like you are trying to defend the people who voted for JL. I am NOT declaring anyone innocent...Everyone is still a suspect in my book, because let's face it, this particular style of game makes things changing constantly. No one is innocent...until they are proven so by death. I am just eliminating people from my "top suspects" list....

Why are you and Rich so jumpy? As I said in my previous post, "Here's my current thinking...but I am totally open to suggestions..."....clearly I'm not 100% about this theory, but I have no other alternatives. I've asked for input. But instead of providing it, you use it as an excuse to point the finger at me.

I totally see a Rich/Lucky team forming here....

Since, there were only 2 bad guys last night...Noods, you are off the hook. Lucky just made the decision pretty easy for me.

Until I see evidence pointing differently, I see Rich & Lucky as my top suspects.

On the JL subject. But you if you were evil ofcourse wouldn't want to take out the person who could be also evil, or the person that would be drawing attention away from yourself.

I am not trying to defend anyone, atleast not any more than you are. I have no feelings about Rich, just feel that with the point you made about JL is pretty convincing.

For people who fell behind.
1. Opi said that the mafia wouldn't want to vote for JL, because he is contributor.
2. But if JL was one of the mafia then ofcourse the fellow mafia (opi) would try to defend them as she is doing now.
3. If JL was not mafia, then as stated by Opi, the mafia (her) would not want to vote for her because they draw attention to themselves.

Either scenario fits what opi said.

 

[Opicana]

For people who fell behind.
1. Opi said that the mafia wouldn't want to vote for JL, because he is contributor.
2. But if JL was one of the mafia then ofcourse the fellow mafia (opi) would try to defend them as she is doing now.
3. If JL was not mafia, then as stated by Opi, the mafia (her) would not want to vote for her because they draw attention to themselves.

Either scenario fits what opi said.

I'm so confused.

I said the Mafia would want to vote for JL...because he likes to ask questions.

 

[jpappy789]

Opi, I thought maybe you dropped Noods off your list because you thought there were only two evils. I now see you're thinking more of a Lucky/Rich team with anyone as the turn (Noods and JL also as suspects overall). Am I correct?

On the JL subject. But you if you were evil ofcourse wouldn't want to take out the person who could be also evil, or the person that would be drawing attention away from yourself.

I am not trying to defend anyone, atleast not any more than you are. I have no feelings about Rich, just feel that with the point you made about JL is pretty convincing.

For people who fell behind.
1. Opi said that the mafia wouldn't want to vote for JL, because he is contributor.
2. But if JL was one of the mafia then ofcourse the fellow mafia (opi) would try to defend them as she is doing now.
3. If JL was not mafia, then as stated by Opi, the mafia (her) would not want to vote for her because they draw attention to themselves.

Either scenario fits what opi said.

What?

You seem to fit "people voting/not voting in order to try/not try to draw attention to themselves" to EVERY SINGLE situation.

 

[luckydud13]

Sorry Opi, I missread your post.

 

[johnlarson66]

I still think Orge is of interest.

I can see Opi's reasoning about the votes. I do think the people who voted for DD could be innocent, but it would not suprise me that at least one evil voted DD.

Really for the mafia, the first few days they just need to follow along. With only two of them on they could blend in pretty good. I doubt if they both voted for me or voted together. One could have voted for the other one. Two can hide pretty well. Now that there is three we will have to look for changes.

I really want to hear from Orge and his late change to a single vote. He really didn't try to sway any one, and it just stayed as a lone vote. I do think noods could be a good suspect. She thinks she is low on her posting, but has us all beat. I think she is trying not to post as much.

 

[noodles62]

I agree with that JL, especially because of what Rickets has pointed out. Ogre admitted to being wishy-washy early when he changed stances on me but it's possible that it's just a cover.



Sheesh...



Wanna hear mine?



I see this theory as being more valid than Rich's IMO. I have pretty much always thought that mafia will want to keep around suspicious players to fill the nights lynching and keep people off of them. They like trains because they can hide but also jump a lone vote and say they just didn't feel the top vote getter was a good choice. If I am remembering the timing correctly a good chunk (the middle three?) of DD's votes came in at close to the same time, doesn't seem like something mafia would do and I'm guessing only one of those three would be mafia if at all. I wouldn't think that the first vote for her would be a mafia move, just because it is risky to stick your head out like that. Fire was the last to vote DD and I don't really know what that means at this point. I've never been able to read her mainly because her posts are kinda "fluffy"...If anything, mafia would probably only want to be on DD if the next vote getter was one of their own (JL in this case). I'm not really leaning that way, just a possibility.

Right now I'm stuck. I'm not really seeing it in Rickets atm, DD is gone, and Opi is more of a high level of distrust than suspicion. Noods, I'm on the fence with her. She's had some iffy moments but that's come to be the norm

I take offense to that! Sheesh! One little melt down and your "labeled for life"

Seriously, I do not agree with Opi's theory that all that voted on DD are considered innocent. That is the perfect way for the mafia to hide. I am sure that at least one of the votes on her was an evil...

I am also really starting to feel uncomfortable about Fire. That late last minute vote on DD along with the fact that even tho on maternity leave is still pretty quiet...definitely someone worth watching.
I still am not feeling cozy about Opi or Lucky..which one tops the list? Not sure yet, altho Opi throwing all the DD voters as Innocents sends up a big red flag; perfect way to hide a team mate.

Jpappy, altho I have small suspicions about you I feel you are leaning more innocent. I know DD was intent on keeping her vote on you but being night one, she would not have had any "info" to seal her suspicions.

more after i read some more......

 

[Opicana]

Opi, I thought maybe you dropped Noods off your list because you thought there were only two evils. I now see you're thinking more of a Lucky/Rich team with anyone as the turn (Noods and JL also as suspects overall). Am I correct?

Well, I saw what I thought was a Rich/Lucky team...so since there were only 2 evils on night one...I dropped Noods of the list. Figuring the third, new bad guy (or gal) is a complete toss up...since they would not have been collaborating with the folks on night one....so it could be Noods or anyone else.

However, I think it was Rickets who pointed out that if Lucky and Rich WERE both evil (or any other two people for that matter)...they wouldn't have voted for the same person....they'd want to spread out the vote more. I am in complete agreement with that...so my current thought is.

Initial Evils: Rich & ????
New Recruit: Lucky

Which explains the Lucky/Rich team.

I have no ideas for who ???? is...but I doubt its Noods, since she was the only other person to vote for JL...and as I said above, I agree the "mafia" would not have voted for the same person.

That's as far as I've gotten, lol.

 

[noodles62]

I still think Orge is of interest.

I can see Opi's reasoning about the votes. I do think the people who voted for DD could be innocent, but it would not suprise me that at least one evil voted DD.

Really for the mafia, the first few days they just need to follow along. With only two of them on they could blend in pretty good. I doubt if they both voted for me or voted together. One could have voted for the other one. Two can hide pretty well. Now that there is three we will have to look for changes.

I really want to hear from Orge and his late change to a single vote. He really didn't try to sway any one, and it just stayed as a lone vote. I do think noods could be a good suspect. She thinks she is low on her posting, but has us all beat. I think she is trying not to post as much.

When did I say my posting was low? I have not been able to play at work like I typically can, but I know my posting is never low. (I guess I like to talk alot!)

JL, you certainly have not dropped off my radar. You seem to be kicking bushes as usual, but I dont know how to read you so not sure which side you are on....I would be perfectly happy to vote you again tonite....

Ogres "wishy washy"-ness is a concxern to me as well. Seems pretty out of charactor especially with the lone votes.