Mafia #67 - 50/50 -- The Play

the wizard said:
A question for you Dag, I know where your vote is but what I want to know is who are your top suspects?

You don't have to name them all just the top 3.
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top 3 would be
JB - lab a CI had investigation night 1 and came out pretty strong against JB

Rich - saving JB last second trying to kill off LR and his reasoning for doing so seems really weak to me. Saying do you think we are the dumbest mafia ever doesn't really cut it in this game format of 50/50, thinking that hitting annie and taking out LR in one would put them +2 in one night and +3 overall in terms of player count is reason enough to expose yourself.

JL - Not sure if he is my 3 or 4th, he has wasted his vote 2 times in a row essentially voting against the innocents by not helping them but keeping his name off the list. The fact that he thinks there are alot of mafia voting with LR doesn't make sense to me since LR was communicating and would of had teammates switch to try and save her last minute just like Rich / JB.
 
IceH2O said:
We possibly have 2 mafia to be lynched over the next 2 days plus CI hits. How are they not on the ropes?

Using your argument why then would Rich switch to Lab and out himself and JB? If JB was mafia then Rich may as well let JB die and stay out of the limelight.

You can't have it both ways Mad. Either you think Rich saved JB because they are both mafia or JB is innocent and Rich is setting him up for the next lynch. Third option, Rich is SB or innocent and took out who he thought was mafia of the 2 at the time.
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Can't have what both ways?

Being in the lead, scum currently has a better chance of contolling the lynch...

I'll agree that there are still events that could turn the tables on them, but for you to say that scum is running scared, and therefore willing to die, just doesn't make sense.
 
rich311k said:
Just for fun but what if I was right? Would anyone care I did not give my reason until after the lynch? Just curious?

Because a whole bunch of other people guessed wrong to. I know it wont matter because you all have a deer in the head lights and that is it.
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Actually only a couple of people guessed wrong most likely, the rest are mafia who wanted LR gone.
 
Kashta said:
I've dug up a few quotes I'd like to ask about.



Lots of colors there, Dag. I'm glad I saw this again because I wasn't able to follow your thinking the first time around.

#1. (Blue) - FF's posting was real good at polarizing this crowd. Some voted against him, others didn't. The next day was similar. Some voted the lead person pushing FF so hard (Labby) while others voted the person who stuck his neck out farthest in opposition to his lynch (JB).

Questions: Today now, looking back at how this happened and how it turned out..... You don't think there was a mix of townie and mafia votes against JB for lynching? Do you really think the split was mafia-minded on one side in FF's lynch with townie-minded players on the other? And that lead to mostly the same people still at odds the next day, so also mafia voting one way and townies voting the other when it was JB vs. Lab Rat slated to die?

#2. (Green) - Really? When half the town votes one way and half the town votes the other in what amounts to a two-horse race, how would anyone be able to avoid voting alongside someone on their opposing team? We do that all the time in these games whether we want to or not.

#3. (Purple) - Sorry, Dag. Could you restate what you're trying to say there? I've read those lines a few times and still can't figure out what you meant by this.
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1. FF's lynch was a bit different from normal lynches. As shown by LR's alignment the communicating Innocents were pretty much convinced by his postings that he was scum. I have to assume that CM and NCM were also similarly convinced he was scum. I still feel his postings were ridiculously scummy and had any other person posted like that more people would have vocalized against him. I think there is a very very high probability that scum felt he was scum and they were going to try and save him if they could without making it obvious. This is a numbers game and day that you can +1 against the other team is a good day. Hence why yesterday I think Rich against what he is saying now did switch to save JB, it would have given mafia a +2 for the day and +3 overall.

2. It's not a matter of you voting alongside someone from the other team, it's a matter of someone from the other team voting alongside the communicating side of your team along with yourself. There will most likely be a few people who mix it up on accident but as the game progresses people should be able to find who they want to vote along side of, yes I think with this format it will always be a 2 horse race.

3. Yeah I left out the word voted. It should read :
There is however the slight chance that another non com mafia voted for JB trying to save LR.
 
What a beautiful day here in WNC! Went for a nice hike w/ a good friend this morning and we having company for a BBQ & beer....:cheers:

Now on to business......Wiz, the only questions I recall you asking me is "when are you gonna help the town instead of posting fluff?" Well, to be honest I have not really seen you helping much either so :silly:.

All I can post is my opinion (I did that yesterday) which the majority of you find worthless so WTH should I bother? It seems like the majority of the players are in the same boat as I am in; not really knowing who is who so really it is just a best guess situation and hope to goodness you are right. As for my vote on Rich, I am considering moving it off as I am inclined to believe his story. He is either telling the truth or he is the SB. either way, it does the town no good to lynch him.

so far my voting average is not very good. I thought Labby was scum, was not sure about Annie and the players I have leaning innocent are voting or are considering voting for me........need to re-read a little and consider my best option.
 
hit post too soon, need to add that those of you who assume i am hiding or laying low, can bite my big pink butt! I have never layed low whether scum or townie, with the exception of last game when it was obvious ya'll knew my role. there was no reason for me to claim innocent or otherwise....

it just so happens that Noods has a life away from the lap top. *gasp*
 
noodles62 said:
What a beautiful day here in WNC! Went for a nice hike w/ a good friend this morning and we having company for a BBQ & beer....:cheers:

Now on to business......Wiz, the only questions I recall you asking me is "when are you gonna help the town instead of posting fluff?" Well, to be honest I have not really seen you helping much either so :silly:.

All I can post is my opinion (I did that yesterday) which the majority of you find worthless so WTH should I bother? It seems like the majority of the players are in the same boat as I am in; not really knowing who is who so really it is just a best guess situation and hope to goodness you are right. As for my vote on Rich, I am considering moving it off as I am inclined to believe his story. He is either telling the truth or he is the SB. either way, it does the town no good to lynch him.

so far my voting average is not very good. I thought Labby was scum, was not sure about Annie and the players I have leaning innocent are voting or are considering voting for me........need to re-read a little and consider my best option.
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So he couldn't be mafia?
 
jpappy789 said:
So he couldn't be mafia?
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Well sure it is possible as it is with all of you. I did say that I am inclined to believe his story.
 
I need to pull some posts and this might take a while with over 100 frickin pages...:wall:
 
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