Mafia 101 - Blarney Castle: Return of the Leprechauns - Game Thread

[Fozzybear]

I think you might be scum. But my case on you depends on jb. So i'm voting him. I'm a lot more sure about him than you.

Sent from my SCH-I405 using MonsterAquariaNetwork App

Again, I'm truly asking because I want to understand: From where I am sitting JB was the first person to go for O3T and he actually pushed hard enough that I KNOW that my vote was swayed onto O3T because of him, how does that benefit the team? there are less leps than innocents and it isn't a very good plan of attack for them to give up a team-mate to take down one of us. I just haven't seen anything on JB that really casts doubt for me. On the other hand the Wiz in a very similar set of circumstances pushed for LG to die and she was innocent.


Also, at the beginning of the game there were only 4 leps, we got two of them which leaves 2 remaining, with the shamrock we could have turned an innocent bad leaving us with 4 innocents and 3 leps, but the odds of that aren't strong enough for me to go ahead and view that as a probability. You guys have 3 potential scum being posited by The Group; JB, myself, and driver, just for the sake of argument with the odds in mind, you must not forget to consider the possibility of your initial assessment being incorrect (i.e. that one of us at least are innocent), just as I must continually look at JB as scum and Wiz as an innocent less I get blinded by my own conformation bias. I think that your assessment is somewhat based on the incorrect assumption that all of us are scum (when in reality that at the very least could be not completely true and at the worst could be completely untrue.) and therefor any consensus between us should be viewed as guilt by association.

 

[Fozzybear]

Again, to answer your question, to split the town vote. If we lynch scum tonight we can still win. If we lynch an innocent, I think we will lose.

If Driver were scum, I think he would have been more active in this game. Driver has been scummy and hasn't helped the town, but, G's posts were scummy as well. You yourself said so.

I said that LG's intensity was incriminating based on drug interdiction theory which states that the most agitated person is hot. I found when she was innocent that that line of reasoning didn't flesh out in this scenario, therefore I've changed up my methodology and stopped viewing a post that appears scummy as as incriminating evidence and decided to base my judgments on minor slips and the response of the person being questioned since the one legitimate vote I've seen was largely based on those parameters.

 

[Zaffy]

Again, I'm truly asking because I want to understand: From where I am sitting JB was the first person to go for O3T and he actually pushed hard enough that I KNOW that my vote was swayed onto O3T because of him, how does that benefit the team? there are less leps than innocents and it isn't a very good plan of attack for them to give up a team-mate to take down one of us. I just haven't seen anything on JB that really casts doubt for me. On the other hand the Wiz in a very similar set of circumstances pushed for LG to die and she was innocent.


Also, at the beginning of the game there were only 4 leps, we got two of them which leaves 2 remaining, with the shamrock we could have turned an innocent bad leaving us with 4 innocents and 3 leps, but the odds of that aren't strong enough for me to go ahead and view that as a probability. You guys have 3 potential scum being posited by The Group; JB, myself, and driver, just for the sake of argument with the odds in mind, you must not forget to consider the possibility of your initial assessment being incorrect (i.e. that one of us at least are innocent), just as I must continually look at JB as scum and Wiz as an innocent less I get blinded by my own conformation bias. I think that your assessment is somewhat based on the incorrect assumption that all of us are scum (when in reality that at the very least could be not completely true and at the worst could be completely untrue.) and therefor any consensus between us should be viewed as guilt by association.

It benefits the team because jb appears to be a shining beacon of townie.

Sent from my SCH-I405 using MonsterAquariaNetwork App

 

[jbradt]

Current vote count:
Hi Iq (0) - AAF (#441)
Wiz (1) - Fozzy (#464)
Driver (1) - Hi Iq (#466)
JB (3) - Zaffy (#475), Wiz (#484), AAF (#500)
Zaffy (1) - JB (#478)

No vote: Driver

Nightfall in less than 8 hours. PMs as needed.

I just looked at this again and had a little chuckle. I guess the shamrock worked.

I retract my vote on Zaffy and vote to lynch Wiz.

AAF was obviously turned by the mysterious shamrock. Well played, guys.

 

[Fozzybear]

Plain and simple. This post is an attempt to split the town.

I am scum for being aggressive after G. Yet, you yourself said you were convinced she was scum because of her posting. I was but one vote. I didn't get G lynched, G got G lynched.

If I am so convinced you are scum why isn't my vote on you? As I stated, JB is the bigger threat to the town. Also, from what I can see, I am not the only one that thinks you are on the scum team.

You come from no where begging and pleading to be the lynch when no one has even voted you. This is an obvious attempt to draw votes off of JB. It is common knowledge that scum will sacrifice themselves to save their leader.

One last point, JB didn't vote O3T until after Dawg had posted in the thread about his slip. Once made what else could he do but vote there. JB is to smart a player to not vote there at that point.

You're not scum for being aggressive after G, you're scum because you were aggressive after an innocent player. Furthermore, since JB has had a largely clean voting record how has he been a risk to the town? nobody has really followed his votes except where he caught O3T, and while I agree with you that at a point any scum player worth his salt was bound to vote for O3T, why make the effort early on to change my mind when I was actually arguing for his innocence? Wouldn't it be more benefit to the scum if I, an innocent player, were to be arguing for O3T's innocence? not only do I help O3T's plight, but I actually paint myself as scum thereby making it easier to incriminate me by association, it would then make it very easy to take me out on the next round based on my defense of O3T. Thereby rendering O3T's death not completely useless because it would be taking an innocent player with him.

 

[the wizard]

Again, I'm truly asking because I want to understand: From where I am sitting JB was the first person to go for O3T and he actually pushed hard enough that I KNOW that my vote was swayed onto O3T because of him, how does that benefit the team? there are less leps than innocents and it isn't a very good plan of attack for them to give up a team-mate to take down one of us. I just haven't seen anything on JB that really casts doubt for me. On the other hand the Wiz in a very similar set of circumstances pushed for LG to die and she was innocent.


Also, at the beginning of the game there were only 4 leps, we got two of them which leaves 2 remaining, with the shamrock we could have turned an innocent bad leaving us with 4 innocents and 3 leps, but the odds of that aren't strong enough for me to go ahead and view that as a probability. You guys have 3 potential scum being posited by The Group; JB, myself, and driver, just for the sake of argument with the odds in mind, you must not forget to consider the possibility of your initial assessment being incorrect (i.e. that one of us at least are innocent), just as I must continually look at JB as scum and Wiz as an innocent less I get blinded by my own conformation bias. I think that your assessment is somewhat based on the incorrect assumption that all of us are scum (when in reality that at the very least could be not completely true and at the worst could be completely untrue.) and therefor any consensus between us should be viewed as guilt by association.

Of course your vote was swayed by JB. This is your first game and I am sure that he told you in the scum den "Dude he's toast we don't have a choice." Not to mention, as you are trying to do now, to point later in the game how he must be innocent because he went after O3T.

Next, do the math. If you were innocent, and obviously you haven't forgotten about the shamrock, why would you beg for us to make a lynch that gives the scum the win tonight? It isn't a small possibility it is 50% possibility that there was a turn.

 

[Fozzybear]

I don't view mutual attrition as a workable schema for the scum team. If both teams are loosing players at an equal rate (i.e. sacrificing players to take out players on the other team) the scum would simply loose because there are more of us than them. Now, I've said before that I COULD BE FOOLED by JB, he really could have masterfully played the glistening townie, but I'm certainly not going to vote somebody down because they seem too clean, rather I'll place my vote where I see the strongest justification to do so in actual scummy behavior, such as calling one's-self scum and then being defensive in response without a focus on rationality.

 

[jbradt]

Fozzy. I've got a lot of respect for the game you've played so far, so I'm going to give you two sets of advice.

In game advice: At this point it's pretty obvious to me that you're a townie. The best thing that we can do is to is to stay on Wiz and hope that Driver an IQ haven't been taken in by this obviously orchestrated attack.

Real life advice: trust your gut.

 

[the wizard]

I just looked at this again and had a little chuckle. I guess the shamrock worked.

I retract my vote on Zaffy and vote to lynch Wiz.

AAF was obviously turned by the mysterious shamrock. Well played, guys.

Nice try JB, AAF has been on IQ the whole game because of one thing early on. You don't think his vote switch could be related to the fact that there is actual evidence that you yourself are in the scum den?

 

[Fozzybear]

Of course your vote was swayed by JB. This is your first game and I am sure that he told you in the scum den "Dude he's toast we don't have a choice." Not to mention, as you are trying to do now, to point later in the game how he must be innocent because he went after O3T.

Next, do the math. If you were innocent, and obviously you haven't forgotten about the shamrock, why would you beg for us to make a lynch that gives the scum the win tonight? It isn't a small possibility it is 50% possibility that there was a turn.

From where I'm sitting I think that lynching JB really does give the scum the win tonight, who better to take out than the one person who's actually made on of their team-mates?

I certainly do hope to be lynched tonight because once you know what role I play it will become obvious for the remaining townies what needs to be done, and I'd rather have a skilled player like JB still in the game to make those moves than myself. I can see that nobody is taking to you as a viable suspect. So, assuming we don't get you lynched the best I can do is cast as much doubt on you as possible and try to redirect the town from voting down a player I see as innocent to lynching one I see as scum, isn't that what a good townie does?

"it is 50% possibility that there was a turn." Wrong: (now keep in mind that these are the raw stats, not considering that the shamrocks were issued not at random but by an intelligent and guaranteed innocent player which changes the initial stat set.) If there are 2 scum and 7 innocents then there is a 28% chance that it will go onto scum and a 72% chance it lands on an innocent. 50% chance that the coin toss renders it effective leaves us with a 14% chance that we turn a scum into a goodie, a 36% chance that we turned a goodie into a baddie and a 50% chance that it did nothing. So yeah...you mean to tell me that a 36% probability isn't a small chance? That's not even scientifically viable probability, you've got to be 50% and up for it to not count as more or less random. For calculation's sake you have the best odd's of considering the shamrock to be a mute point and the very worst assuming that its turned a baddie good, unless the people who used it had made a baddie, in which case the odds jump based on the degree of their certainty. I.E. If they're 100% positive it was a baddie we've got a 50% chance the baddie has been turned good, regardless, it is statistically improbable that we now have 3 baddies and even more so that we now have 1, if one were trying to be logical they would be operating on the assumption that the shamrock was a dud.