Mafia 104 - Dawg the Bounty Hunter - The Play

[dundadundun]

or you are fighting a winning battle surrounded by scum. Can I borrow an ice cube?

you can have a drink of your choice if i have it to give.

 

[Kashta]

It simply amazes me after all this time, the scum has managed to avoid our lynches, killed two of our PRs, and accumulated a team of 4 (assuming Bally innocent) against us.... and we're left with not one shred of anything more substantial to go on than grasping at straws.... still.

I can't narrow things down to a top suspect yet but these are the names I'm most leaning scum - AAF, Chill, Dun, JB, RB. And these are the ones I keep going back and forth on too much to lean either way - Pappy, Rich, Wizard.

I'm not remotely leaning anyone innocent at this point. I haven't seen a whole-hearted innocent game this round from anyone.

 

[rich311k]

Right now watching the battle between Pap and Dun over I am not quite sure what. Looks important thought, I am more and more inclined to think Jb is innocent.

I am am pretty sure they are debating who suspected JB first. I suspected him when he signed up.

 

[Kashta]

I've tried working this through every which way since last night and it boils down to one thing, as was said before. If we don't lynch scum this time, the game is over and we lose. Plain and simple. And that's already factoring in a successful scum kill from Duane tonight PLUS a presumption of Bally as innocent.

Looking at scum moves....

Pregame - Dealer picked teammate = 2 scum
N1 - Someone was turned = 3 scum
N2 - They went after Lab Rat so there was no turn = 3 scum
N3 - They went after DD who died too = 3 scum
N4 - Someone else was turned = 4 scum.

(That also assumes Bally as town, not scum.)

The most I can speculate from that as an inkling to their strategy was they went for DD (low-key player at the time) AFTER Lab Rat was dead -- when they knew no one was protected anymore. At that point, they had full free choice to hit/turn anyone they might have wanted. And the scum can't investigate so it's not like they followed an invest result when they decided to target DD.

Unfortunately, all that tells us is: Given free choice, the scum opted for something low-keyed over something more obvious/vocal. (Or, possibly, that they just like DD and wanted to hang out with her if she wasn't a PR. lol.) The 2 times we know who their target was, they were both good players who weren't real vocal at the time. But this doesn't indicate why or even if they stayed with that strategy for their successful turns too.

 

[Kashta]

didn't mean to come off that way, kash. i meant what i said, but not in relation to your question. i don't want people skimming thinking i'm pulling anything about the votes out my rear... so i posted them in the order they were placed. that's what it meant.

Okay, good! Yeah, I did take that as the skimming reference was directed at me. Lmao.

 

[the wizard]

The posts today have done nothing to help me decide who to suspect. Mostly we have Dun and JP arguing back and forth.

The only thing I truly suspect at this point is that the scum are players that I have never been able to read. Those players are as follows:
JP
Kashta
RB
Rich
Dun

This list is in no particular order. It also isn't officially a suspect list. As I said they are the players I have never been able to read.

JP needs no explanation as to why I haven't been able to read him.
kashta has fooled me every time she was scum.
I don't think I have ever played an entire game with RB so I have no clue what his style is.

Rich, let's be honest, who can read Rich?

Dunn is there because the games I have played with him, I was convinced he was scum and he was innocent. So my read on him was wrong.

I am going to have a smoke and when I return I will start looking again to see if I can find anything.

 

[jpappy789]

Kash, keep in mind we really have no idea what happened with the potential turn used hopefully on scum. I mean, you can try to read into the write by Dawg but I'm not sure that would get you anywhere.

I suppose it would be best to assume the worst meaning we are at 4 scum. More urgency from the town can only help at this point in the game.

I'm going to step back and look into more players since there are more than the couple people I've been focusing on. No offense to Jb or Dun but I doubt anything you'll say is going to change my mind right now, unless something major comes up. I feel like any more back and forth is going to be a waste of time and everyone else can read through and make up there own minds.

 

[Chill]

It simply amazes me after all this time, the scum has managed to avoid our lynches, killed two of our PRs, and accumulated a team of 4 (assuming Bally innocent) against us.... and we're left with not one shred of anything more substantial to go on than grasping at straws.... still.

I can't narrow things down to a top suspect yet but these are the names I'm most leaning scum - AAF, Chill, Dun, JB, RB. And these are the ones I keep going back and forth on too much to lean either way - Pappy, Rich, Wizard.

I'm not remotely leaning anyone innocent at this point. I haven't seen a whole-hearted innocent game this round from anyone.

When did you start suspecting me Kash? it always bothers me when you do a 360.

...
Chill... along with Rich... would get my "appears most innocent" award if there was such a thing. If either of them are evil, they are making flawless posts. The main concern I have about Chill is I never never never see him as innocent even when he is. Chill and I always distrust each other in these games on a real fundamental level. And that's counting a large total of games we've played together in the past. This game for some reason, I sense that I "trust" him even more than I do Pappy. So that's very weird for me to say and I can't figure out if it's reason enough to suspect him for it.

...

yes of course games play out and opinions change but when exactly did your opinion on me change? Any post in particular?

 

[Chill]

But to be fair that's not the 360 that bothers me. (I'd still like an answer though). The more concerning change is here:

I've tried working this through every which way since last night and it boils down to one thing, as was said before. If we don't lynch scum this time, the game is over and we lose. Plain and simple. And that's already factoring in a successful scum kill from Duane tonight PLUS a presumption of Bally as innocent.

Looking at scum moves....

Pregame - Dealer picked teammate = 2 scum
N1 - Someone was turned = 3 scum
N2 - They went after Lab Rat so there was no turn = 3 scum
N3 - They went after DD who died too = 3 scum
N4 - Someone else was turned = 4 scum.

(That also assumes Bally as town, not scum.)

The most I can speculate from that as an inkling to their strategy was they went for DD (low-key player at the time) AFTER Lab Rat was dead -- when they knew no one was protected anymore. At that point, they had full free choice to hit/turn anyone they might have wanted. And the scum can't investigate so it's not like they followed an invest result when they decided to target DD.

Unfortunately, all that tells us is: Given free choice, the scum opted for something low-keyed over something more obvious/vocal. (Or, possibly, that they just like DD and wanted to hang out with her if she wasn't a PR. lol.) The 2 times we know who their target was, they were both good players who weren't real vocal at the time. But this doesn't indicate why or even if they stayed with that strategy for their successful turns too.

There were several comments about this, pro and con. I pulled these to be more specific why I was concerned about the discussion.



I agree with most of that, Chill, the way you've stated it. You're right, most potential scum players in this game would certainly not need or even want advice how to form their strategy. However, we don't actually know who the scum are so.... we don't know what level of expertise is in the scumden. (Personally, I doubted Pir on that basis alone and held back my vote until Pappy pointed out the intial assignments were random and we should operate accordingly. I think the same logic applies to open speculation as well.)

The way I see this, offering our individual opinions about which player is more turn-worthy than another is akin to suggesting which player might make a better hit target for them.... or which player is more likely a townie PR than another. Why risk letting them benefit from open brainstorming like that? I seriously doubt they would ignore it and it could influence who they choose as a result.

Not only is it possible that one of us makes an observation about someone specific they hadn't thought of on their own.... it also allows them to sit back and evaluate each of our opinions based on their view of the poster's level of play.

As you pointed out though, the drawback of NOT making those lists is it also prevents us from using them for comparison later in the game. And that is true too. So I can't really say it's scummy or suspicious if someone weighs that possible benefit higher than someone else. I just feel it's better for the town if we stick to suspect lists like usual instead of giving them potential hit/turn candidates.

------

This post from Lab was long. I've cut it down to the two points directed to this point.

(I also may have already answered you with my reply to Zaffy but your post is specific so I didn't want to skip over it.)



Probably not. But that, of course, depends on which players are scum. Even most of our more skilled players would surely benefit from the collective wisdom this group has to offer if everyone in the game shared all our insights/experience/perspectives.

This was directed to Pappy but it's about the same thing:



No Labby. We should have lists.... but they should be suspect lists.

I don't think we should give them "hit lists" discussing which candidates make better targets.... and why. Based on sheer numbers alone, the town holds an overall advantage in collective experience and strategy right now than any possible scum team combination could have with only 3 players on their side.

Kash you hate speculation. You've given me grief on it many times in many games. Yet you speculate. That is a signifcantly out of charachter for you. Why choose now to start speculating? Worse yet to assume that the goal was to get a low key player is dangerous. There's always the possability that they may have suspected DD was a PR. When she started her last round of posting I initally though she had drank too much cough syrup but then started to wonder if she wasn't looking to be looked at. If scum read her as trying to draw an invest she could have been targeted for that reason alone.

The other concern is you are a meticulous player. Very keen on the rules and keeping up, yet your synopsis fails to mention the potential that a scum may have been turned back to a townie.

 

[the wizard]

I have gone back and forth over this and at this point, I honestly cannot say that I have a bst top suspect.

My work schedule has kept me from digging like I normally would and combined with the fact that very few are actually posting it is tough.

The best I can do for placing a vote to prevent someone getting their vote doubled is to vote someone that, although he has posted, has done nothing that i can see to help the town.

I vote to lynch RB.