Mafia 2014 #1-- FF1 Simple--The Play

[jpappy789]

I can't tell if I lean you innocent, or if I'm going to have a tailored tinfoil suit made.

I'm still a bit taken aback by it all myself. Although, in hindsight lynching Kash would have been better for us numbers-wise...but leaving the hit on someone who was tied up at 15 minutes before nightfall is not something I would have anticipated either.

 

[Zaffy]

I may end up regretting that, but I couldn't decide if it was worth tieing it up and risking both DD and Kash flipping innocent. That, plus a potentially successful hit, would leave us at 3-2.

Reason to lean you innocent: The math works out. If kash is innocent and lynched, DD is innocent and UDs, and an unknown 3rd is hit. The town loses 3.

Reason to have a tinfoil suit made: The math doesn't work out. If the game started 7 innocents : 2 scum. 7-3 = 4. that would be 4:2 not 3:2. This is important because the math is central to the reason you give for voting the UD.

Reason to lean you innocent: 1 townie loss rather than 2. Of course scum would rather kill 2 townies than 1.

Reason to have a tinfoil suit made: The other runner up was the hit, DD could have come in last minute and tied it up in which case the person being hit could have been lynched and then the scum only gets one kill.

If it were almost anyone other than Pappy I'd put my foil away and lean innocent, but pappy is clever enough that I can't justify that right now. I feel like I've used a lot of words to say nothing, unless someone can point out an error I've made?

 

[Zaffy]

I'm still a bit taken aback by it all myself. Although, in hindsight lynching Kash would have been better for us numbers-wise...but leaving the hit on someone who was tied up at 15 minutes before nightfall is not something I would have anticipated either.

This begs the question. Was the scum present at nightfall? Or were they confident? or inept?

We can certainly see who was around for nightfall. I'm not saying this means anything in itself.

posted within 15 mins of night:
Kashta
Pappy
Zaffy
Wiz
2Hobbies


>15 mins:
UN 30 mins
Ballyhoo 59 mins
FF 4 hours
DD 23 hours 31 minutes

 

[jpappy789]

Well, I'm an idiot.

I thought there were only 8 total players. So I initially did the math incorrectly, and thought that the split was 6:2. Hence why I was worried that maybe we could end up with a 3:2 game tonight.

Are you sure you're not tutoring math anymore?

 

[Zaffy]

Well, I'm an idiot.

I thought there were only 8 total players. So I initially did the math incorrectly, and thought that the split was 6:2. Hence why I was worried that maybe we could end up with a 3:2 game tonight.

Are you sure you're not tutoring math anymore?

This semester I'm teaching seminars for Algebra 1&2, Geometry, Pre-Calculus, and Biology. It's not exactly tutoring, but close.

 

[jpappy789]

I blame FF for putting that number into my head.

Have you seen most day 1's? They usually end up with votes scattered fairly evenly, so the chances of Zaffy being the person lynched at exactly 1/8. So forgive me for assuming my vote would mean nothing on day 1 with a 1/8 chance of it being on the lynched guy -_-

Ummm....what? Earlier you were saying it was unlikely Zaffy would be lynched, but if votes are spread evenly that would make it MORE likely that Zaffy could be lynched because it would essentially take maybe one or two more votes on top of yours. Again, something you should NEVER just assume would not happen over the course of almost two entire game days. Even in the extremely unlikely event where everyone has one vote (this 1/8 situation you mention) that makes Zaffy just as equal as anyone else, which again contradicts your original point.

Granted, I should have checked...but I barely got my vote in, if that makes any difference. So at potentially 7:2 (I don't think 6:3 would have worked very well) the worst possible scenario would have been 4:2. So not as bad, but still put us in a position where a bad lynch D2 would end the game.

So right now we're standing at probably 5:2...which means so long as no innocents UD we are guaranteed another night after this coming one.

Unless my math is off again...someone should probably double check...

 

[the wizard]

Well, before I go fire up the grill, I would like to throw a general question out to everyone.

I already know Zaffy's answer as it was stated in his vote post.

I would like input from everyone on the reason I gave for my vote on UN. Am I barking up the wrong tree or does he look scummy to anyone else?

I will check back in before retiring for the evening if anyone has questions for me to answer.

 

[jpappy789]

Well, before I go fire up the grill, I would like to throw a general question out to everyone.

I already know Zaffy's answer as it was stated in his vote post.

I would like input from everyone on the reason I gave for my vote on UN. Am I barking up the wrong tree or does he look scummy to anyone else?

I will check back in before retiring for the evening if anyone has questions for me to answer.

Looking back, I think it was a better D1 vote than most, but I'd like to see how UN reconciles those posts himself before I expand on anything.

 

[the wizard]

Looking back, I think it was a better D1 vote than most, but I'd like to see how UN reconciles those posts himself before I expand on anything.

Yes I too would like to see what UN has to say. I can't believe nobody has anything to say about any thing.

 

[jpappy789]

Hey Bala can we get the final vote count?

I know I'm not really one to talk right now...but how hard is it to go back and add the three additional votes to this post count from before nightfall?

thru post #99.....

(0) Zaffy by FF1 14

(2) DD by FF1 77 user 94 wiz 95

(2) Kashta by 2Hobbs 85 Bally 91

(1) Un by wiz 98


No other votes in/retracted....nightfall in a little over 20 minutes....PMs as required please...


4 no votes/potential UDs right now......

Sorry about that. I didn't realize the time.

I've got nothing... but, gotta vote somewhere.

I vote to lynch DD. Everything I've seen, she's the only one who tried to put a spin on something without bothering to find out if it was correct first.

I vote to lynch UN

What wiz said made me think. I feel like going with the gut right now.

I vote to lynch DD​