Mafia #23 Revenge

[ZSandmann]

Early morning thoughts:

I'm thinking that some others are correct and we have totally misfired on who we thought were mafia. I know I've been critical of rb's hints before, but I'm willing to take them on this time. So Grins, for now, you're off the hook. I retract my vote for Grins.

First let me say something about statistics. The problem with us having a 33% chance or <shudder> 50% chance of lynching a mafia today is that those percentages presume that all other things are equal and we know that's not the case. Some people will be defending themselves, some attacking others, some defending others. So, just throw statistics out the window after day 1 (even on day one pretty much).

Now for my list... again based on some hints that rb threw out (and my interpretation of them) I'm listing the following as my top mafia choices:

JMax - she's a vet player and made some very interesting statements about this game (especially recently)

Ice - definately not my top choice, but there are some curious things going on here.

ZSand - His posts are similar to the time that he was mafia and I busted him on it. IMO, they are good posts, but lacking that effort towards innocence.

The next one would be one of Mad, Hooked, DD with me leaning toward DD. She's a very quiet player that hides well. Hooked is more aggressive, so somewhat easier to see goofs or slips. Mad is probably lowest on my list for mafia right now, but it would be a mistake to not look at him closely. He posts infrequently, but they are usually excellent posts when he's innocent.

I'm also curious about the assumption that one of Zsand and KOTD came into the game as mafia. I realize that this is based on rbs posts, but I don't think that was the message.

Unless we can pretty much through the rules and stated objectives out the window, then we are looking at 6 mafia now out of 17 players (two deaths last night). With two innocent deaths today we would be 6 of 15 and the blackmail might come into play so 6 of 14... still not 50/50.... wierd....

Of course, if the detective is mafia, then we are in serious trouble anyway.

Ogre, why must we always end up butting heads. Are you competing with King for my "affection". Your comment about my posts not being helpful bugs me every time I see it. As I said yesterday I spend a lot of time in game when I play, that is why I had to step out. I read this whole monster thread yesterday and made as many observations as I saw fit to post. I roleplayed a bit, and was silly, but that is just my character. Others post complete garbage or just don't post and I don't see the same comments at them from you. You failed to even mention the lurkers in your list.

Now on your discussion of numbers I must correct you. There are 18 players left, and 3 Innocents died yesterday. (joander, malbri, ILB) You are correct that there are now probably 6 Mafia (2 Dons, 2 Day 1 picks, and 2 Day 2 picks). So 6/18 If two Innocents died today that would be 6/16, add blackmailer 6/15 possible.

 

[ZSandmann]

All the one games I've seen that RB modded, the players that joined late always caused trouble...that game it was Brains, and apparently the game didn't end when they lynched the last mafia (by the count), until a large fuss was raised. Either Brains was an extra Mafia, or RB forced a communicating Innocent to become Mafia without anyone (including the Innocent) knowing it. While the rules, AS WE UNDERSTAND THEM, don't allow for KOTD or ZSandy to be Mafia, we ALL know RB likes to throw in those curve balls regardless of the rules. Joining late may make it more likely you're innocent, but I'm not gonna take it as a 100%.

I'm still going to watch KOTD...he may not be the biggest fish to fry, but he's still one to watch IMO.

I don't know...I see Blue's posting today, but so far it's just saying she thinks JM is innocent when everyone else doesn't. Sounds like she has some knowledge the rest of us don't...maybe Mafia knowledge?

Fair enough, I agree Bob likes to tease us and nothing is out of the realm of possibility.

 

[LesbianChap]

Ogre, why must we always end up butting heads. Are you competing with King for my "affection". Your comment about my posts not being helpful bugs me every time I see it. As I said yesterday I spend a lot of time in game when I play, that is why I had to step out. I read this whole monster thread yesterday and made as many observations as I saw fit to post. I roleplayed a bit, and was silly, but that is just my character. Others post complete garbage or just don't post and I don't see the same comments at them from you. You failed to even mention the lurkers in your list.

Now on your discussion of numbers I must correct you. There are 18 players left, and 3 Innocents died yesterday. (joander, malbri, ILB) You are correct that there are now probably 6 Mafia (2 Dons, 2 Day 1 picks, and 2 Day 2 picks). So 6/18 If two Innocents died today that would be 6/16, add blackmailer 6/15 possible.

And if RB decided to make the two additions a THIRD Mafia team, we'd be at 8/16....his 50/50 comment seems to hold a lot of weight.

 

[clown-lover]

Clown, could you please point me to the post where Grins sent you the secret message that she was innocent?

Sure... The below are the messages and she has been using as references to the Pirates game. There was a period of time where I was getting a flurry of PM's from her as the Game Mod specifically about how to play her role and how others could/would play theres (she was actually killing me with some of the questions she was sending). What she could do, what she couldn't do in her role as the Governor. She felt that I pretty much made the role a sitting duck to her estimation but I told her she had to think out of the box. Anyway during this period there was a set of messages in which she asked me if she could give away her identity to the guards (good vig's and she was afraid one of them was going to hit her for her aggressive play style. There were two ICE and RB but she didn't know there were two) through the magistrate via the watchman since she thought the watchman would be the guards's boss. And I told her she could only hint to her true identity in the thread and not through the magistrate. She wasn't happy with that because she knew the pirates would probably pick up on it as well)

Anyway long story short there were other PM's and discussions however I believe that this is a hint to me because of that specific reference to ICE and the Pirates Game and she was amazed that ICE was one of the Guards(RB actually hit him) and some of the hints he was using in the game to give away his identity at the time. I might be wrong as I have stated and she could very well be mafia.. But I don't like lynching people that I feel might be helpful to the town just because I might have read them wrong.. You know how she played in that game as well as I do, but like I said I might be wrong but she is a good player and I don't want to cut off my nose to spite my face.. It is that last reference that is bugging me.. Understand??

An oversight, like I said I seem to have strep and I hit my answers pretty quickly (should be obvious to all I didn't do my typical links to things as I normally try). But frankly I'm glad you have brought it up. I've said before that Ice is hard to read but I am noticing something about him too. I just don't think it is mafia like you guys do. I am reading his hints another way, much like was done in the pirate game.

You did say you'd answer any questions in emails then yes, but at the very least tell them you never coached me with text like you did for MeeMee. And HN if you see this I'd at least appreciate that as well. And Clown sure knows that I can bug a mod to hell and back when I have a secretive role. :lipssealedsmilie:

 

[clown-lover]

Yes Cl, My vote is staying on Grins. It was put there becuase of her lying about editing her post, I dont care if you or anyone else believes me concerning that as I have already posted. My vote is staying on her now because I fully believe that she is mafia.

Go back and read how her tone changed when the votes were stacking up on her. For those defending grins at this point, you are looking really suspicious to me.

JM was almost lynched last night, I believe that JM is innocent and just having fun this go around and letting her blonde roots show.

No, I didnt make the original for the rest to see it, unfortuanatly quotes in quotes do not carry over, and my phsychic abilities were taking a break I suppose when they didnt tell me that she was going to edit her post.

Im not harping on anything. I stated my reason why I voted for grins, when grins questioned me, or referenced that I was confused, I responded to that. Shes the one that brought it up, not me.

Your post above calling me a liar concerning it puts you just a notch below Grins on my mafia radar. Why are YOU bringing it up again? I have expalined all you have asked already in my previous posts.

Just becuase I didnt jump on a train and vote to lynch an innocent last night, or help the train out by posting stuff that was laughable concerning mal, that makes me look guilty?

Take it or leave it, its your choice.

Anyone that has played with me knows that I rarely if ever to analysation of players. When I have thoughts I post them.

My only problem with that Blue is tunnel vision. I'm not sticking up for Grins in fact I have stated that she very well may be mafia.. I have stated I would like to hear some of your thoughts on other players did I not.. And if I didn't excuse me as there are several players that I have put that next to them and you should have been one of those players. I do think that there are others that might be mafia. But one thing I have learned in this game is that the people that are singling picking on one player and one player alone are those that need to be watched more than anyone else simply because they are not catching other errors that are happening and have proven time and time again that this type of play style is a mafia type of play style.

 

[clown-lover]

The "Be four" instead of "Before" is the obvious hint here. But with 18 players in the game there would have to be 9 Mafia to make it 50/50. I can't come up with any way within the posted rules that there could be nine Mafia. If anyone has thoughts on that I would like to hear them. But also I suggest we try and not get too caught up in bob's mind games and focus on players and posts. I remember one of the last games I played, I think it was the With game, folks got incredibilty drawn up in the "clues".

This is the second time I've seen you post this comment. What did Grins post to make you think this? I ask as Grins is my number one suspect and if I am missing something I would like to see it so I can factor it into my vote. If it is a reference to a previous game this is especially true as I have not played with Grins before. This kind of info should be freely shared with the town.

Oh trust me..he would...

See my comments to Mad..

You really think so? Its been a LONG time since I've played a games with him and what few I did play were way back in the single digits games. So for me this is a new theory as it has been established before that many players like being a scumbag more than they like being an innocent. So basically your saying that is reverse for him?

 

[clown-lover]

To add to that last post to Blue.. So with everything that has gone on you have no other thoughts about other players? Really? I mean we were just shy of hitting 1000 posts for a game 1 day. You can't tell me that you haven't run across at least something that has tickled your brain..

 

[clown-lover]

And if RB decided to make the two additions a THIRD Mafia team, we'd be at 8/16....his 50/50 comment seems to hold a lot of weight.

Now that would be an interesting theory indeed if he did something like that. I'm going to have to go back to the rules and see if he left one of his notorious holes that he could drive a semi-truck like that through..

 

[ZSandmann]

King is a good player, but he is also head strong and often plays his own game.

Thanks for showing us Grins' "hints". They may mean something to you but I don't see anything there that proves Innocence to me. And if Grins is Mafia, they could very well drop hints to you in hopes of getting you to do exactly what you are doing. I'm not saying you are proclaiming their Innocence, but you have a doubt, and sometimes that's all it takes. Grins was the lead voter getter yesterday up until an hour or so from Night when votes suddenly started shifting. That is telling to me, on top of Grins' body of posts. If Grins is Mafia, we all seem to more or less sense that, so would the other Mafia team. Four votes aint much of 21 (20 with joanders long walk) but it is enough to cause a shift. So here is the complete voting record from yesterday.

Day One Ends: 7PM CST Tuesday 1/8
(21 Players) No Vote: (1) joander,
1-LesChap: LesChap(4)LadyG (205)Grins(309) Zsandmann(920) Malbri(939)
1-HN: judge(7)Grins(30) ILB(52/123)
1-JM: ILB(14)HN(27) Cory(486) ILB (560)Ice(582) Grins(718)Ice(817) clown (864)
0-ILB: Malbri(23)bkw(433)King(475)
7-Grins: bkw(69) Ogre(107) clown(450) Mad(682) Blue(693) ZSandmann(767) LadyG(795) JM(801) HN(896) Zsandmann(933)
1-Clown lover: cooldude(114)
9-Malbri: Ice(242) Ice(632) King(638) Beth(725) Beth(776) bkw(825) emo(838) Ice(842) Grins (865) clown(879) DD(924) LChap(926)
0-King: Malbri(498)
0-ZSandmann: LChap (914)

 

[clown-lover]

Well guys I have meetings and service calls the rest of the day.. I have to get running and I'll probably be back late..