Mafia #27: Survivor ACville Island

jpappy789 said:
If a "mafia" comes from one team they can name a person either innocent or on another team (Most likely they will not name a teammate). They will not know what role that person is but at this point there would be a 50% chance that they are innocent and a 50% chance that they are on the other team (3 and 3).
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Still a high risk move only to put their own neck out there. Ice's idea is better, just name one of your own and then have the trust of the rest of the island.

If I was mafia, it would be best to name someone from my own team that I knew was mafia than to take a 50/50 risk. If I failed on the 50/50 I would be dead for sure.
 
johnlarson66 said:
Still a high risk move only to put their own neck out there. Ice's idea is better, just name one of your own and then have the trust of the rest of the island.

If I was mafia, it would be best to name someone from my own team that I knew was mafia than to take a 50/50 risk. If I failed on the 50/50 I would be dead for sure.
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So now the question...Did you name someone from your team?
 
jpappy789 said:
Now I am torn between whether to believe you or not...though I have no suspects other than you and grace but nothing strong enough to warrant a vote so I will have to wait...
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Why would I lie?

If mafia, why would I choose such a move? What is there to be torn about. If I am lying, then I am dead the next day.

I think we can be sure that Fungi is a member of the Emerald Alliance.

What we can't be sure of is what I am:

Am I a member of the Emerald Alliance and have chosen to gain the trust of the town by killing one of my two teamates? Which makes me a big target for the Lazuli Alliance to hit me or to cast doubt on me.

Am I am member of the Lazuli Alliance and have taken a 50/50 chance to name Emerald Alliance member?

Am I an innocent that has used his investigation and has made that information public?

If Fungi comes up innocent, then by all means banish me. Let me be the one that the mafia teams goes after. Which at this point, I do not think they will. My investigation is spent.

I see no reason to wait.
 
johnlarson66 said:
Why would I lie?

If mafia, why would I choose such a move? What is there to be torn about. If I am lying, then I am dead the next day.

I think we can be sure that Fungi is a member of the Emerald Alliance.

What we can't be sure of is what I am:

Am I a member of the Emerald Alliance and have chosen to gain the trust of the town by killing one of my two teamates? Which makes me a big target for the Lazuli Alliance to hit me or to cast doubt on me.

Am I am member of the Lazuli Alliance and have taken a 50/50 chance to name Emerald Alliance member?

Am I an innocent that has used his investigation and has made that information public?

If Fungi comes up innocent, then by all means banish me. Let me be the one that the mafia teams goes after. Which at this point, I do not think they will. My investigation is spent.

I see no reason to wait.
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What I'd be worried about is that you did indeed name a team mate or you named a player from the other team.

If you named a team mate you buy some safety for yourself.

You might have opened yourself up to the other team but they need to get rid of you anyway to win.Since anyone NOT on their team is the enemy you were a target to begin with.But if the innocents believe you it will be hard to lynch you so the other team needs to use a coconut hit,which is only a 50/50 shot.

If you named a player from the other team its the same scenario. Innocents less willingly to lynch you,or need to use an investigation on you, and they still need to do a coconut hit.

You have essentially forced a hit on yourself to which you have a 50/50 shot of surviving.

Since the chance of you just naming a player and hoping they are on the other team is to risky I think you named a team mate or are honestly an innocent.

Now the question becomes do one of the 3 innocents waste an investigation to find out if you are telling the truth.Well other 2 since if you are one then ones been used already.
 
I so do want to investigate you. But what I really want to use my investigation on is to clear a player. I'd rather know my 2 allies then to know who is the enemy.

If I investigate you and find you to be Emerald then I wasted a chance on clearing a player.

If I don't investigate you and you are banished an innocent then we're down to 2 players vs 6 enemies.

If I do investigate and come out that you're innocent then they have 2 targets for them to hit to get rid of knowing they belong to the innocent team.

Since most have said I'd be the one they would investigate then the teams will know what I am anyway. If I come back one of the teams they will post it or vote to lynch me. If I come back innocent they won't say anything or refuse to vote me.

Since I'm pretty much a given away player in that aspect I think I will investigate you JL.
 
This has given me a lot to think about, but I may be processing it all incorrectly as I'm somewhat tired...

What perks my interest is:
I think we can be sure that Fungi is a member of the Emerald Alliance
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Coupled with

I think it was a valid question and was also curious to see what players might fly under the radar and not get inspected at all.
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It's a somewhat tenuous link, but with me supposedly getting 'hot and bothered' by this nominal investigation, you, Grace, Papi and myself have all drawn enough attention to me to warrant perhaps multiple investigations, yet you claim that I seem to be the sort of player that nobody would investigate. It could well be likely that somebody affirms or denounces your claim within the next 5 hours before Sunset.

Next to Papi: What is this 50/50 you're talking about? This makes the game seem more about luck than decisive voting, I'd hope that the two teams would target the enemy first and foremost rather than a coin-flip, there'd be reasoning to tip the scales perhaps 60/40 before voting.

The simple mathematics you have used betray you as a member of an alliance, speaking from an Alliance perspective, the way that you 'know' that (two) other members are allies that leaves 3:3, hence the 50/50 derived from it. It may be well that the teams aren't fair as CL did claim that he reserved the right to 'hand-pick' and you may be an innocent who has just counted-the-legs-divide-by-two to get those numbers, but that sure as heck-fire is suspicous enough to warrant my vote

I vote to banish Papi from the island
 
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