Mafia #32 LMAO

[[AC] Driver8]

OK What I think for now.

There are either 1 or 3 of them. There has to be an even number (2 teams) and 3 are so far dead. I think 4 mafia total (starting at 2 teams of 2) is unlikely, and I think 2 teams of 4 is also not a runner. So 99% likely 3 mafia left of 6 unknowns.

All that vote interaction on the ZS lynch happened before all mafia were known to each other. Perhaps less weight should be attributed to it. The problem is that we have a severe information deficit since the Ogre lynch last night was uncontested and we can tell nothing. This is aggravated by the fact that there was an innocent driven plan on the Jensons/Ogre lynch so we can tell very little from it.

Still looking at mseckman myself for tonight. Still wanting to hear from Wing Nut. Still thinking he/she is not being objective in calling my vote patterns scummym much less voting for me so early in the day.

 

[bkw1982]

All the players and their conditions


Ogre - DEAD MAFIA- Votes N1 Pix, N2 ZS, N3 Jens, N4 Driver
johnlarson66- DEAD comm innocent- Votes N1 Wing
Dangerdoll- ALIVE suspect mafia- N1 Pix, N2 pix, N3 jens, N4 ogre
Jensons- DEAD innocent- N1 LG, N2 pix, N3 ogre
[AC] Driver8- ALIVE suspect Innocent- N1wing, N2 ZS, N3 ogre, N4 ogre
[AC] wing nut- ALIVE suspect Innocent- N1 LG, N2 ZS, N3 Jens, N4 ogre
[AC] C-note- ALIVE Innocent- N1 Lg, N2 ZS, N3 Jens, N4 ogre
Lady G- DEAD comm innocent- N1 Wing
charlie_stubbs- DEAD steped down Mafia- N1 pix N2 pix
ZSandmann- DEAD Mafia- N1 pix, N2 pix
catfish- ALIVE Innocent proven- N1 LG, N2 Pix, N3 Jens, N4 ogre (wow i had bad vote record!)
mseckman-ALIVE suspect mafia- N1 ZS, N2 Pix, N3 Ogre, N4 Ogre
pixl8r- DEAD DOC- N1 LG, N2 ZS, N3 Jen, N4 ogre
bkw1982-ALIVE proven innocent- N1 LG, N2 ZS, N3 jens, N4 Ogre
judge- ALIVE suspect mafia- N1 Wing, N2 Wing, N3 Ogre, N4 ogre
fish34- ALIVE suspect Innocent- N1 LG, N2 ZS, N3 Ogre, N4 Ogre

Very very nice Cat.....no wonder fish is worried bout you, way to much time on the comp lol. But i think its one of the more helpful post made.

you sound pretty sure bout dd and so did pix......my vote will stay on DD.

 

[[AC] wing nut]

Ok so unknown players are :

DD, Wing-Nut, Me (Driver), Mseckmann, Fish 34, Judgemax

Pretty much known innocent - C-Note

Known Innocent - Bkw, Catfish

So to C-Note, Bkw, Catfish you have to pick out the mafia from us 6 unknowns.

To the 6 unknowns we all know each others status, which means we townies are picking from 5 really...not bad odds.

My question for C-Note, Bkw and Catfish, all of whom I effectively trust is a leeetle bit strange but bear with me - would it give you a definite steer if we could exclude say me as being mafia from your deliberations ? i.e. would this make you go 'ok well if its not him it has to be x and y'.

My own personal suspicions at the moment are on Mseckman in particular. I can also see it for DD but I don't know. I can also see it for Judgemax.

Looking at the lists posted by known mafia turned out to be sort of less than helpful. Charlie, Ogre and ZS's lists of three (in Charlies case there was also a list of two) had in common a couple of flirtations with each other, then known innocents and then all three also had Wingnut. In a regular game with one mafia team this would make me suspect Wingnut as their team mate (I see all scum as posting at least one of their team mates as a suspect in their lists), but these lists were posted before the unification of the mafia teams, and we don't think there was a team of 4 involved, so this may not be all that useful.

I am concerned at the extent to which Wing Nut is gunning at me, because I really do not believe that my actions are scummy when considered properly. Regarding the town's 'plan' on the night of Ogre's lynching, I have to say that I thought it was a pretty crummy one ultimately but hey don't hang me for being independently minded and recall that if my splitting the vote had worked out on the other 50% we would have lynched a mafia. Otherwise, recall that I was part of ZS's lynching, and well before it was a done deal, and I was not on Lady G on day one, but Wing Nut (from memory).

But I am being most careful not to put a you suck vote out on Wing Nut and will have a chance to think further about it before voting at all. For now, I think I can give a pointer which might seal the deal on my innocence, which would narrow the pool for the lynch further.

I welcome your thoughts.

Well Msek has been on my list for pretty much the entire game hasn't she? Its just others jump ahead of her on the list due to investigations and actions. I find it interesting that all of a sudden you come gunning for me because I placed a vote on you. I was hoping this would happen and you would show your true colors.I didn't want another night of just vote DD and chance losing the Detective and being stuck with nothing to work off. I voted you to get discussions going on more then just her.

Lets focus on the unknowns anyway :

On day 1, when you read it, you end up with the following on Lady G at lynching time : Jensons, Catfish, C-Note, Bkw and Pix (all known innocents) and of the unknowns you get fish34 and wing nut.

On day 2, you end up with C-Note saving the day and getting ZS hung. Other people on ZS end up as bkw, wing nut (second on by the way), pix, Ogre, Driver, fish.

On Pix same vote end up as ZS, Charlie, Jens, Catfish, MSeckmann.

Of interest on day 2 - fish34 breaks a tie between ZS and pix, before other late movers (catfish and Ms) come back on pix tieing it up and then C-Notes great call to lynch ZS is made. C-Note, late change, innocent and correct, lynches ZS. Catfish is innocent and ultimately wrong. Mseckmann ? We don't know except they were a late vote onto Pix, when it was very tight.

One other interesting post is Number 444 where Wing Nut (when the votes are tied) says he thinks two innocents are up on the block.

A quote from Wing nut next morning. I have put comments in blue :

unknown

So. I would be interested in hearing from Wing Nut their thoughts on Mseckmann as a suspect now. Knowing the status of the voters involved here, their vote to put pix ahead 7-6 would have saved ZS and lynched the Doctor without C-Note's late change.[/quote]

I never said I think 2 innocents are on the block in that post. I said I was worried 2 innocents were on the block. So now you resort to twisting words? Not very smart when people can check the actual post.
Again I have had Msek on my list for a long time.Are you just skimming past lists?

OK What I think for now.

There are either 1 or 3 of them. There has to be an even number (2 teams) and 3 are so far dead. I think 4 mafia total (starting at 2 teams of 2) is unlikely, and I think 2 teams of 4 is also not a runner. So 99% likely 3 mafia left of 6 unknowns.

All that vote interaction on the ZS lynch happened before all mafia were known to each other. Perhaps less weight should be attributed to it. The problem is that we have a severe information deficit since the Ogre lynch last night was uncontested and we can tell nothing. This is aggravated by the fact that there was an innocent driven plan on the Jensons/Ogre lynch so we can tell very little from it.

Still looking at mseckman myself for tonight. Still wanting to hear from Wing Nut. Still thinking he/she is not being objective in calling my vote patterns scummym much less voting for me so early in the day.

I voted to get discussions going. Your pattern means nothing, its the way your voting unfolded. Night 1 on me Day 2 on Zsand but he could have been on the opposite team. Night 3 you were so back and forth it could be conceived that you wanted to save Ogre but thought better of it and voted out Ogre. Could you imagine the outcry if you were the kill vote on Jensons? Day 4 YOU HAD to vote Ogre.


C-Note, Dangers list does look suspicious and her notes or lack of on Zsand Charlie and Ogre does look bad. But as noted by Driver my list isn't much better. Early lists don't actually help us. Jenson a known innocent had Z leaning innocent and Charlie as someone she didn't have any thought on. Her votes are much different then yours Bkw and Pix. I have some thoughts on who the Detective could be. I just don't feel that comfortable with a vote on Danger. If the players I think could possibly be the Detective vote DD I will switch but enlight of Drivers attempts to make me look bad I feel more safe with my vote here.

Unless I missed it I see Driver hasn't voted yet and the only player on everyones list of suspects to vote has been Judge and she quickly jumped on Danger, be it to hang an innocent or maybe to distance.I think Driver was trying to see if he could get some interest in me so the mafia could lynch a more vocal unknown innocent.
I'm going to stay where I am. If my vote is needed on Danger I will move it, I need to see where the lurkers vote.

 

[[AC] wing nut]

Her votes are much different then yours Bkw and Pix.

should read aren't

 

[[AC] Driver8]

]

I never said I think 2 innocents are on the block in that post. I said I was worried 2 innocents were on the block. So now you resort to twisting words? Not very smart when people can check the actual post.

This I accept - that I said you said 'i think' when you in fact said 'I'm a little worried'. I don''t accept I'm twisting words though. Anyway as you'll note from the rest of the discussion above, post 444 is not considered a big deal really.

*shrug* you're leaving your vote on me and so be it. I just very much doubt that I'm the best pick at all, so I looked through some things involving amongst other stuff your self. I'm not gunning for you.

 

[[AC] Driver8]

Certainly as regards discussion, I'm all for it, and voting someone to get one going is fine. As I've said, this would be an easier game to solve if we had some useful information from the last two votes but we don't.

My voting Ogre on night 3 ? I thought he was mafia. End of. My HAVING to vote Ogre last night - correct. Last night's vote means nothing. As I said.

 

[[AC] Driver8]

OK there is one other thing which now jumps out of me from Cat's very helpful post. Lady G and JL both had Wingnut as Day 1 votes. This would make them good candidates for the hit on Night 1 if someone wanted to frame Wingnut.

 

[[AC] Driver8]

OK I am ready to cast a vote and I will definitely be around on the way up to nightfall. Presently I vote to lynch mseckman.

 

[Rbishop]

thru post #848...

to lynch...

DD (4) by bkw 787 cnte 789 catf 800 jdge 814

Driver (1) by wing 795

msek (1) by driv 848

6 of 9 have voted...

no votes from msek, fish and DD...

about 2 hours to go...

PMs or e-mails as necessary...

 

[[AC] wing nut]

I just think if I move to Dangerdoll that the mafia will all just pile on and we'll have the same exact situation as with the Ogre vote. Nothing will come out of it. Since the known innocents are sitting on Danger I would join them but without knowing if Danger was actually investigated I'm worried we are lynching an innocent. The posts they are throwing out could be said about numerous known innocents. In fact if they weren't known innocents I'd have them listed as mafia for the push on Danger lol.

I want to be in a position that if they feel they need to jump to someone else I'm already there.There are only 3 left with me on you and if they all jump to Danger then the 3 knowns can jump on you or Msek and we'll be rid of them.

I'd join you on Msek because I think she could be mafia but I also think you are doing it to distance lol.