MAFIA #5 The Play.....

I'll be strongly guided by ZS's information on this vote...presuming he's had one more investigation and may be in touch with the mayor who has had 2 (plus one to formally be permitted discuss with ZS)...so that's 5 investigations which may now be available to us.
 
Good Morning All!
Still no word from the Mayor, I hope they Investigated me. If not maybe we will both be around on Day 5. I'm still seeing some saying that Coler "may" be Innocent so let me correct things.

Night 1: I Investigated Ogre - Mafia
Night 2: I investigated Coler (He is a good player, I had to know) Innocent
Night 3: I investigated KOTD: He is Innocent and Vigilante.

So I will for now, with the info I have, assume there were four Mafia, we have killed 2, 2 remain. As I promised last night here is my current thinking.

jpappy789, has hidden in plain sight, posts in waves, never really gives a strong case for anyone, voting followed known Mafia, my pick for Don currently
Dangerdoll, continues to stay quiet unless conforted, posts excuses for behavior, no real defense
bkw1982, voting record, a bit waffley, leans Mafia but not the best candidate
IceH2O, I think Ice is Innocent personally but can see where others disagree
johnlarson66, after the way Ogre repeatedly named him I think he's Innocent
joander123, either Innocent or a Mafia scapegoat, don't think that makes sense with only 4 Mafia though
Jensons, no good feel, tend to believe they are Innocent, uncertain
Mee-mee Wild card, leans Innocent, but a shadow of doubt
Cory Lover Another quiet one, posting does not reflect Mafia behavior
Malbri Quiet, but claims they are busy, I tend to believe them
sploke, been pointed out by known Mafia, posts support the Town
 
Ha, things come full circle. Jpappy was my vote on day one, and I still think he's mafia, although now for different reasons. The thing that set me off last time was his interaction with joander, who was the popular choice at the time. I too think that the mafia have just been pushing jo to get attention off themselves. He established himself as a suspect in the beginning, and the mafia have been just trying to ride that train for all its worth, IMO. Other than that he's been kind of all over the place, with no real contribution. Have to go back and look at his voting records.
 
ZSandmann said:
Good Morning All!
Still no word from the Mayor, I hope they Investigated me. If not maybe we will both be around on Day 5. I'm still seeing some saying that Coler "may" be Innocent so let me correct things.

Night 1: I Investigated Ogre - Mafia
Night 2: I investigated Coler (He is a good player, I had to know) Innocent
Night 3: I investigated KOTD: He is Innocent and Vigilante.

So I will for now, with the info I have, assume there were four Mafia, we have killed 2, 2 remain. As I promised last night here is my current thinking.

jpappy789, has hidden in plain sight, posts in waves, never really gives a strong case for anyone, voting followed known Mafia, my pick for Don currently
Dangerdoll, continues to stay quiet unless conforted, posts excuses for behavior, no real defense
bkw1982, voting record, a bit waffley, leans Mafia but not the best candidate
IceH2O, I think Ice is Innocent personally but can see where others disagree
johnlarson66, after the way Ogre repeatedly named him I think he's Innocent
joander123, either Innocent or a Mafia scapegoat, don't think that makes sense with only 4 Mafia though
Jensons, no good feel, tend to believe they are Innocent, uncertain
Mee-mee Wild card, leans Innocent, but a shadow of doubt
Cory Lover Another quiet one, posting does not reflect Mafia behavior
Malbri Quiet, but claims they are busy, I tend to believe them
sploke, been pointed out by known Mafia, posts support the Town
Click to expand...

he is my pick for don also
 
Here is the complete voting order from yesterday, my comments inserted:

johnlarson for ZS 738
ZS for jpappy 767
ZS switch from jpappy to ogre 792
*ogre for jo 799
*jpappy for jo 802
CL for jpappy 812
ice for bkw 813
johnlarson switch from ZS to jo 839
***post 841, ZS comes out as detective***
KOTD for ogre 842
sploke for ogre 848
CL switch from jpappy to ogre 842
***ogre comes out as detective***
mal for ogre 866
coler for ogre 883
*DD for jo 906 - in her words, unsure so she's playing it safe
ogre switch from jo to ZS 907
ogre switch from ZS to KOTD 924
Coler retracts ogre 937
Jensons for KOTD 951
jpappy retracts jo 972
jpappy for ogre 978

at this point, with jpappy's switch, the votes go from 5 ogre-4 jo to 6 ogre-3 jo

johnlarson switch from jo to ogre 981
bkw for ogre 987
coler for ogre (again) 988

*

mee-mee comes in with a late vote for ogre




So. The starred votes seem to be possibly mafia desperately trying to get another train started on jo. Aside from his supposed slip-up on day one, I'm not getting much suspicion for him.

Then, toward the end, you have jpappy, johnlarson and bkw all switching to ogre. At that point, IMO, the vote was set so it didn't matter who they switched to. Effort to look innocent? Something to think about. the problem is that I keep coming up with too many suspects, I can't limit it to just 2. So there are either more than 2 mafia left, or some townies are just good at looking guilty.
 
good analysis sploke - my late vote was deliberate enough; genuinely wanted to not have an Ogre lynch train on the basis that the longer the mafia thought there was a chance to save him the more obvious their late switch would be.

Taking your analysis on board I'm happy enough with my vote for bkw to remain there.

I said earlier that Ogre's ploy if successful would make JL immune...this is so only if the person who got lynched in lieu of Ogre was not ZS as lynching ZS would have resulted in us knowing he was detective and would have put Ogre and, too a lesser extent JL, in serious trouble with the townies. Hence, Ogre voted KOTD ultimately. Ogre's naming JL can be seen as an effort to take someone with him on this view (Ogre goes out, we turn on JL)

Ogre's main problem having come out as a fake detective was who in fact to vote for. Why did the rest of the Mafia not vote for KOTD ? Because it makes no sense as an innocent move to a) out the vigilante (if you think he/she is innocent) and b) vote to lynch the (innocent) vigilante.

That's why Jenson's vote is so suspicious to me - coupled with the fact that she gives me the 'credit' for it.

So anyway, for me, the mafia would vote not against Ogre (obviously), not against KOTD (despite Ogre's vote) and not for ZS, because to lynch ZS would result in us knowing Ogre was mafia, and we would then focus on the people voting ZS, cross-referencing back to previous votes/posts...a relatively easy task to find the mafia.

In conclusion...I think the mafia made an effort to save Ogre but not expose him as a liar; this is obvious when you see that there was no real push for ZS to be lynched...so I would look at closely at people who voted early and changed to Ogre late in the day, the peope who voted late in the day, and the vote for KOTD. And that does put JL back in the picture...but there are better suspects as already said.

I get a real sense that there are more than three EDIT TWO now that Ogre is out mafia left guys.
 
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