MAFIA #5 The Play.....

bkw1982 said:
The way you stated it we are not looking at 18ppl but 2 groups, newbies and vets. So does that mean that vets hav a higher chance of being mafia then the newbs? no, it means that mafia has a higher chance of having more vets because there are more of them to select from. I know it sounds like i just said the same thing twice but the confusion lies in the wording...."the vets hav a higher chance of being mafia then the newbs" This is an unture statment because everyone has the same chance at being mafia. Now word it this way "Because there are more vets then newbs mafia has a higher chance of filling their ranks with a vet" that is a true statment because there are 14 vets vs 4 nwbs which raise the odds of mafia selecting a vet.

everyone has a 50% chance of being either mafia or innocent.

Mafia has a 14/18 chance of picking a vet and 4//18 chance of picking a newb

It's all in the wording of the statment....but needless to say i see your point, and i think it is a good observation.
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Sorry.. I was an analyst.. Not an english major..:grinyes:
 
I retract my vote for the Easter Bunny (;)) and vote to lynch JudgeMax. Too different from last game! Unless I see something substantial between now and then, I intend to make this my solid vote.
 
clown-lover said:
We each have a 22% chance of being selected as one of the mafia.. (that is 4/18).

However when you look at the overal selection density of the population, the group of 14 have a larger chance of being selected of more than one of them being selected even with a random number generator (which by the way most computer random number generators are not random they work on a time slice principle) than the group of 4 does. Its the law of averages bud.
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As far as I understand the game anyway, that first statement is correct. For this game, we each have a 22% chance of coming up as mafia. Thats it. If you factor in previous games, yes for "senior players", there is a higher probability that they have been selected as mafia at some point in time. However, the number generation is independent each game, it is not affected by previous results. Its like flipping a coin...just because you flip 10 heads in a row, it is not more likely at that point that you will flip a tails, its 50/50 because they're independent trials.
 
Hooked Newbie said:
I retract my vote for the Easter Bunny (;)) and vote to lynch JudgeMax. Too different from last game! Unless I see something substantial between now and then, I intend to make this my solid vote.
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what?...whats is so different from last game?..I posted alot there to, unless i said i would be out, .I don't get it, its sunday, i happen to have a slow day, the dogs and kids are good, what did i do to you?..lmao, are you still sore from last game, that I outed you;)
 
judgemax said:
what?...whats is so different from last game?..I posted alot there to, unless i said i would be out, .I don't get it, its sunday, i happen to have a slow day, the dogs and kids are good, what did i do to you?..lmao, are you still sore from last game, that I outed you;)
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Don't be. You did good deductive work, just as I believe I have so far even if the game is early. Why so defensive? Where's your list of suspects? What are your thoughts on the other folks? Convince me that I'm wrong, don't try to guilt me into thinking it...
 
grrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I hit another page to find something and wiped out my whole post. Crap.

Clown - I think bkw has more than 1 post. And yeah, excel does not post into the forum well.

My statements really didn't bring anything out.

Later

P.S. baby in lap.
 
ok, well whatever, you guys will see, I am not going to proclaim my innocence a hundred times, . I am having a good time, and Right now, i have the time to do it, i won't tomorrow, and whats it matter?, i give up, you guys wanna lynch me day one, ok, do it, i have done nothing wrong, and have tried to not copy so much,like NJ pointed out, forgive me for trying to learn, ! I guess, when the smoke clears, and you see my name, youll know, your down a townie..., i have two kids to bath, so, unless they go to bed early , i won't be on till later, is that alright, or will that make me look mafia to?..
 
CL#2 either way that was a good observation and as sploke pointed out the random generater is what trows everything up in the air. but im sure some mathematician could factor it all in and come out with a conclusion to all of it, Im not a mathematician and only understood half of the stuff i typed lol.

I will be watchin you alot closer from now on CL#2......wait....in my book you are CL#1, cory lover can be CL-A
 
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