MAFIA #5 The Play.....

[IceH2O]

I have to agree with Bkw. Your posts make no sense and look to me as if you're trying to confuse people.

Joander is still getting my vote but if it takes 1 vote to put you over the top I may switch. Its not important which one goes 1st just that one of you do go. The other will follow shortly I'm sure.

 

[clown-lover]

u just created a unture paradox. how can they hav an equal chance of being picked and a higher chance at the same time.
quote]

Do I need to program a random number generator based on our names and run the scenario for you??

We each have a 22% chance of being selected as one of the mafia.. (that is 4/18).

However when you look at the overal selection density of the population, the group of 14 have a larger chance of being selected of more than one of them being selected even with a random number generator (which by the way most computer random number generators are not random they work on a time slice principle) than the group of 4 does. Its the law of averages bud.

 

[ZSandmann]

Am I right that johnlarson66 is the only unspoken player? I suppose that could be a knock against him, but it is too premature to go there. I would like to hear from everyone before I begin to even consider a vote.

Coler's vote for himself counts?

 

[IceH2O]

Sandy steps back into the fray after enjoying a day out. He managed to pick up a new light for his tank at a reasonable price and enjoyed a fantastic flick at the cinema (Transformers).

Good Lord! I'm gone for a few hours and the thread explodes, but that is great, glad to see there is a lot of posting to read for info. I read through real quick and will need to go back and reread later tonight but right now my watch list is:

joander: I think that they either goofed CL style or else just don't proofread. Their more recent posts have been much more put together and focused, interesting.

DD: For the finger-pointing at the finger-pointers comments, and because she is a really good player and worth watching.

Coler: The opening post was mind shattering. Almost as fun as a who's on first skit. But I tend to think he is innocent because a Mafia would be nuts to open the game like that, unless that is what he wants us to think. There's a paradox for you!

Ogre and Ice: A+ players, as much as I'd like to trust them it is just to hard not to doubt them at the beginning of a game. They are master sleuths and could probably convince me the Easter Bunny is the Don.

bkw: He must be Mafia!!! (JOKING) I dunno no read yet.

haha you give me way to much credit. I've been in 1 game, the 2nd one doesn't count since i went out the 1st day. But thanks for the vote of confidence. I'll do my best to help you rid the town of Mafia.

 

[Hooked Newbie]

I retract my vote for Sploke and vote to lynch the Easter Bunny.

 

[clown-lover]

Am I right that johnlarson66 is the only unspoken player?

Yes

Here is the count as of page 21

bkw19821Coler25Clown-Lover26Cory Lover3Dangerdoll3Hooked Newbie12IceH2O16Jensons3joander12330johnlarson66jpappy7899judgemax33KingOfTheDeep3Malbri5mee-mee4OgreMkV12sploke5ZSandmann8

 

[clown-lover]

Dog gone it.. Tried to post from Excel into the editor... sigh.. Hope this works.

bkw1982 1
Coler 25
Clown-Lover 26
Cory Lover 3
Dangerdoll 3
Hooked Newbie 12
IceH2O 16
Jensons 3
joander123 30
johnlarson66
jpappy789 9
judgemax 33
KingOfTheDeep 3
Malbri 5
mee-mee 4
OgreMkV 12
sploke 5
ZSandmann 8

 

[judgemax]

I retract my vote for Sploke and vote to lynch the Easter Bunny.

:lol: now thats funny, i don't care who you are, lol

and, i obviously, have no life, jeez, am i glad monday is tom, back to the grind

 

[bkw1982]

The way you stated it we are not looking at 18ppl but 2 groups, newbies and vets. So does that mean that vets hav a higher chance of being mafia then the newbs? no, it means that mafia has a higher chance of having more vets because there are more of them to select from. I know it sounds like i just said the same thing twice but the confusion lies in the wording...."the vets hav a higher chance of being mafia then the newbs" This is an unture statment because everyone has the same chance at being mafia. Now word it this way "Because there are more vets then newbs mafia has a higher chance of filling their ranks with a vet" that is a true statment because there are 14 vets vs 4 nwbs which raise the odds of mafia selecting a vet.

everyone has a 50% chance of being either mafia or innocent.(well almost a 50%. the 1st 4 ppl atlleast have 50% chance if we were in person and picking out a hat. it depends on how sets up the list and how he selects mafia. bottom 4 or top four are mafia.)

Mafia has a 14/18 chance of picking a vet and 4//18 chance of picking a newb

It's all in the wording of the statment....but needless to say i see your point, and i think it is a good observation. but doesn't excuse you from being mafia. A mafia repersentitive and a innocent representitive didn't walk up to a hat and select. it's about placement on the list and bishop methods of selection.

 

[clown-lover]

Judge.. you beat me to that comment.. I was running for my ms excel spreadsheet when trying to get Zsandmans answer for him.